Vladimir Putin's Russia changed internationally recognized borders twice with armed force: in 2008 with the war against Georgia and in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea.
Both times the Kremlin put the Belarusian ruler Alexandr Lukashenko under pressure to formally recognize these steps.
He refused because it would have chained himself firmly to Moscow and would have lost all room for maneuver in foreign policy.
As transparent as his calculation was, it worked in both cases: Relations with the EU improved temporarily, and sanctions were suspended until protests were put down again. Lukashenko celebrated the freedom he had gained in this way in public with many small insolences towards Moscow.
When the dictator now says that Crimea is de facto and de iure Russian and then pretends to have never said anything else, then with waving flags he is giving up an essential element of his previous foreign policy.
This surrender documents how much Lukashenko has his back to the wall and what political and military leeway the Kremlin has gained as a result.
This is fatal for Ukraine in view of the Russian troop deployment on its border.
Poland and the Baltic states also have strong reasons to be concerned.