Washington

- As the seventh round of negotiations on the Iran nuclear deal enters its third day in the Austrian capital, Vienna, speculation is growing about the impact of the charged atmosphere surrounding the negotiation context.

While the Iranians still refuse to talk to the Americans directly, as they consider that negotiations are taking place between the parties to the nuclear agreement and that the withdrawal of the United States from it has removed it from the circle of direct negotiations, Sina Azudi, an expert at the Atlantic Council and a researcher at the Institute for Gulf Studies, sees that one of the goals of Washington from the current round of negotiations is to "hold direct talks with the Iranians and push them to commit to a roadmap that resolves concerns about the country's nuclear progress before it is too late."

On the other hand, Barbara Slavin, an expert on Iran and director of the Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council, expected the talks to continue for several weeks, “and the end of this year may be the unofficial deadline for this round, and if no progress is achieved by then it is difficult to revive the action plan.” Joint Comprehensive Plans (Nuclear Agreement signed in 2015)".

In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, Slavin said, "The Biden administration will try to distinguish whether the new Iranian negotiating team is serious about reaching an agreement, or is it just taking time to achieve political gains."

"The Biden administration will reaffirm its willingness to lift all nuclear-related sanctions in exchange for a realistic and verifiable Iranian plan to return to compliance with the JCPOA," she added.

Iran's strategy

In turn, Esfandiar Batmankilj, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and an expert on Iranian affairs, told Al Jazeera Net that "these negotiations will undoubtedly be difficult, but the logic of returning to the previous nuclear agreement signed in 2015 is still clear to the two main parties."

For the United States and the other five countries, the JCPOA remains the best way to place verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, and for Iran, restoring the JCPOA is the only way to achieve the lifting of US sanctions, thus removing a major barrier to regional economic policy. and international relations for Iran.


Batmankilj believes that the success of the talks depends on whether the negotiators from the two sides deal with the talks with a pragmatic view, and says, "Given the risks and consequences of the negotiations' failure, I think it is a fair bet that pragmatism will prevail and the negotiations will succeed."

Iran has doubled its nuclear program activities in recent months, and UN reports indicated that Tehran has succeeded in reaching a high degree of uranium enrichment close to 60%, which represents a pressure point on the United States and European countries participating in the negotiations.

For her part, Barbara Slavin believes that "Washington's only red line is that Iran does not reach a level of enriched uranium that can be used to make a nuclear weapon, and how this is achieved will depend on the progress Iran has already made and whether it can be reduced one way or another." .

Washington goals

Regarding Washington's strategy toward the current round of negotiations, Batmanclj notes that "there is a lot of talk that the Biden administration is wary of Iran's intentions in this round, and that given Iran's possible hard position in the negotiations, reaching an interim agreement is the most likely outcome."

"But the main goal remains to restore full mutual compliance with the JCPOA, and the focus of this round will be an attempt to understand Iran's negotiating positions in more detail, and to determine whether the government of (Iranian) President Ebrahim Raisi is ready to build on the progress made in the first six rounds of the JCPOA," he added. conversations".

"Washington's traditional red lines have not changed, but more importantly, Iran has already crossed many of those red lines due to its recent nuclear escalation and its acquisition of more technical know-how and irreversible technical gains," says Batmancalj.

He added, "This is why speed and time are a priority for the United States to restore the terms of the nuclear agreement, and if talks continue and Iran continues to engage in escalatory activity, this will undermine the benefits of returning to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which is primarily aimed at curtailing Iran's nuclear capabilities." ".


For his part, Jawdat Bahgat, a professor at the Center for Near East and South Asia at the American National Defense University, believes that the American and Iranian sides do not clearly reveal their acceptance of any red lines.

He said, "The strategy of the Biden administration is to bring the European, Chinese and Russian positions closer to the position of the American side. In other words, unlike the (former President Donald) Trump administration, which imposed sanctions unilaterally, the Biden administration is trying to work with the other parties to the nuclear agreement to isolate Iran. The Trump administration, it was the United States that was isolated, not Iran.”

Bahjat believes that Washington has not changed its fixed lines with regard to Iran, and he told Al Jazeera Net that reaching "longer time restrictions on the Iranian nuclear program, limiting missile capabilities, and limiting Iran's regional influence are among Washington's new goals, and there is no way to know what Whether or not these negotiations will change that."

The United States, Iran and Israel took hard positions before the negotiations, as Washington said that it expected the administration of President Ibrahim Raisi to accept what the administration of his predecessor, Hassan Rouhani, had accepted at the end of the sixth round of negotiations in Vienna (April-June 2021).

On the other hand, the Iranians say they are going to Vienna to reach an agreement on lifting sanctions. Finally, Israel has increased pressure on the United States and Europe not to reach an unacceptable agreement that would lift sanctions without "serious concessions" from Iran.

Between success and failure

Despite the desire of the American and Iranian parties to return and comply with the terms of the 2015 agreement to lift sanctions on Iran in exchange for restricting its nuclear program, Sina Azudi points out that the Iranians “are determined to lift the sanctions, but I think they are likely to slow down the process as much as possible to increase their influence, and in At the same time, avoid referral to the UN Security Council.

"I remain cautiously optimistic that the talks will eventually succeed," Azoudi added. "The fact that the new negotiating team has accepted the results of the previous six rounds is a positive sign."

For his part, Professor Jawdat Bahgat believes that evaluating the success of negotiations depends on how "success" and "failure" are defined.

"I do not expect a breakthrough or a breakdown of the talks, given the extent to which the general positions of the United States and Iran have reflected, a major breakthrough is unlikely, and a complete breakdown of the talks would be bad for all parties in the Middle East," he said.

"After a long round of negotiations, I expect small, gradual steps by both Washington and Tehran to reach an interim agreement," he added.