What is Russia playing on the border with Ukraine?

Uncertainty reigns in the East.

For several weeks, satellite images have revealed a significant strengthening of the Russian military presence at the gates of Ukraine, which is sounding the alarm bells with its Western allies.

The country's authorities estimate the number of Russian soldiers massed near its border at more than 90,000.

"Russian intentions are not clear," admitted NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg during a visit to Alliance forces in Latvia.

But, he added, there is an unusual concentration of forces for the second time this year. "

In the spring of 2021, movements of Russian troops had already aroused the concern of Ukraine and NATO.

This time, the situation seems different, assure the experts interviewed by France 24.

"These are not military maneuvers, but a gradual rise in the Russian device," analyzes the former diplomat Jean Gliniasty, a specialist in Russia.

"In the spring, there was an international consensus that the Russians did not have the necessary means to launch an invasion. Today, the Russians want to reverse the balance of power and show that this threat is credible," explains Edouard Simon, associate researcher at IRIS and expert on European defense issues.

According to the American and Ukrainian military intelligence services, the probability of a Russian attack would be increasingly high and could even intervene from the beginning of the year 2022.

The price of the Russia-Ukraine war

However, if the threat is credible, the cost of an attack from Ukraine could prove to be very high for Russia.

Supported by the United States, Ukraine now has much greater military capabilities than in 2014, the year of the illegal annexation of Crimea by Moscow.

According to a Pentagon spokesperson interviewed in June, Washington has invested more than $ 2.5 billion to bolster the country's defense since 2014.

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Last delivery of military aid to date: 80 tonnes of ammunition.

The Americans have also reportedly supplied a new batch of Javelin anti-tank systems and tracking equipment this month.

The US-led alliance is looking for a delicate balance: to avoid escalation but to show the Kremlin that it would pay dearly for aggression in eastern Ukraine, even if the country does not. not part of NATO.

"NATO will undoubtedly step up its cooperation with Ukraine, but the United States does not want this to degenerate into conflict, because their priority is China," explains Jean Gliniasty.

"The United States also wants to preserve the sacrosanct nature of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty", adds Edouard Simon.

"The idea is to say that there will be consequences but that it is not the same thing to attack a member of NATO like Estonia or Poland".

Article 5 stipulates that if a NATO country is the victim of an armed attack, each member of the Alliance will consider this act of violence as an armed attack directed against all the members.

"Raise the stakes"

If the risk of escalation is real, the Kremlin's primary objective is probably not a direct confrontation with the Ukrainian army and its Western allies on the Donbass front.

Since 2014, this region has been torn by a war between separatists supported and financed by Russia and the Kiev authorities.

The Minsk agreements were supposed to make it possible to silence the guns, but there are still many skirmishes.

The Russians criticize the Ukrainians for not respecting the terms of the agreement, including the implementation of a law temporarily granting local autonomy in the Donestk and Lugansk regions.

Another point of friction: the issue of amnesty for all those involved in the Donbass war.

"The Minsk agreements are at a standstill because the Ukrainians do not want them. They were signed by former President Poroshenko in a situation of extreme weakness of the Ukrainian army," recalls Jean Gliniasty.

"It is to be hoped that the Russians will raise the stakes today to speed up negotiations which are at an impasse."

In this context, it is therefore in Russia's interest to cast doubt on its intentions.

Invited by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to deny the existence of a large-scale invasion plan, the Kremlin has chosen eloquent silence.

There is no doubt that tough negotiations are being prepared behind the scenes to unblock the situation when the conflict in Donbass has already claimed more than 10,000 lives.

Next meeting at the end of the week in Stockholm, at the meeting of ministers of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), a rare international forum of which the United States and Russia are both members.

It will take place in the presence of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

This is the first time since 2017 that the American and Russian representatives will be present together at this annual meeting.

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