First reported less than a week ago to the World Health Organization (WHO) in South Africa, this new strain has since been identified, from the Pacific to Europe, via Canada, leading around 40 countries to announce travel restrictions.

The severity of the economic impact will depend on the proven dangerousness of this new variant, the vaccine coverage of the global population as well as Omicron's resistance to available vaccines.

Lowered forecasts

But, from the most favorable scenario to the darkest assumptions, economists are already working on new 2022 forecasts, all revised downwards.

At Tokyo Haneda International Airport on November 29, 2021 Philip FONG AFP

The International Monetary Fund has been hammering for months that the Covid remains the main risk for the world economy and urges to accelerate the vaccination.

In October, he expected growth of 4.9% for next year.

The economic impact could be "modest" in the order of 0.25 percentage point on global growth in 2022 if Omicron causes "relatively mild symptoms" and the vaccines are "effective," said Gregory Daco, chief economist at Oxford Economics.

In the worst-case scenario where this variant turns out to be extremely deadly with the obligation to confine a large part of the world population, 2022 growth could be cut by almost half, falling to 2.3% against 4.5%. estimated by Oxford Economics before the appearance of this variant.

And, in such a scenario, it is not sure that the governments that have poured out trillions of dollars in aid since the start of the pandemic, are willing to take further fiscal stimulus, especially if vaccines are available, observes Gregory Daco.

"These aspects will be key in determining to what extent this will affect the world economy and the behavior of people," said Erik Lundh, economist at the Conference Board.

The Omicron variant in the world Valentin RAKOVSKY AFP

Self-restriction and shortages

Beyond measures taken by governments to contain the spread of Omicron, fear of becoming infected could lead people to impose self-imposed restrictions on travel or dining, for example, reducing the risk of infection. consumption and therefore growth, he continues.

Another risk is the exacerbation of problems in global supply chains and inflationary pressures.

Because "a large part of air freight passes through flights carrying passengers", recalls Erik Lundh.

"If there are flight cancellations, an interruption in the demand for commercial flights for passengers, it risks limiting (...) air freight," he said.

A sign indicating a Covid screening center at Schiphol airport, the Netherlands, November 29, 2021 Kenzo TRIBOUILLARD AFP

In addition, a wave of Omicron infections "could cause some workers to temporarily leave the workforce and deter others from returning, exacerbating current labor shortages," commented Neil Shearing, chief. economist from Capital Economics in a note.

Never has a variant of Covid caused so much concern since the emergence of Delta, already very contagious.

US President Joe Biden, however, said Monday that there was "no reason to panic", even if the United States is on "early warning".

As for vaccine manufacturers, AstraZeneca such as Pfizer / BioNTech, Moderna and Novavax have expressed confidence in their ability to combat this variant.

Rising interest rates compromised?

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on November 22, 2021 in Washington JIM WATSON AFP / Archives

However, the threat of a new variant, potentially more serious, will complicate the task of central banks who could "postpone their plans to increase interest rates until the situation is clearer", argues Neil Shearing.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is due to meet on December 15, several others including the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England the next day.

"We will know most of what there is to know (on Omicron) in a few weeks," said Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla on Monday on the American channel CNBC.

In the meantime, "uncertainty is damaging," notes Gregory Daco.

"Every time you come back to a climate of uncertainty and fear, it slows down the recovery of the world economy."

On Monday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell himself warned: Omicron is a risk for the US economy, one of the engines with China and Europe of global activity.

© 2021 AFP