American figures call for increased economic, diplomatic and "military" pressure on Tehran
Washington's Options Are Limited During Nuclear Talks With Iran
Vienna negotiations last chance before escalation.
Reuters
Biden is trying to revive the nuclear agreement with Iran.
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Dennis Ross: "The (routine) reference to (other options) is no longer sufficient, as Tehran no longer takes Washington seriously."
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The United States resumed indirect negotiations with Iran in Vienna yesterday, but appears much less optimistic than it was in the spring about the possibility of salvaging the agreement on Tehran's nuclear program.
Its options to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb are limited if talks fail.
Revitalizing the 2015 agreement
Former US President Donald Trump withdrew from the international agreement in 2018 and re-imposed sanctions that Washington had previously lifted under it.
In response, Iran has abandoned many of the restrictions placed on its nuclear program.
US President Joe Biden stated that he wanted to return to the agreement, which was negotiated in 2015 by the administration of then-President Barack Obama, when Biden was serving as Vice President, on the condition that Iran recommit to it.
A US State Department spokesman said last Wednesday, "It is possible to reach an understanding quickly and implement it."
But the US envoy in charge of the Iranian nuclear file, Rob Malley, indicated that Tehran's behavior "does not bode well for the talks."
Washington accused Tehran of procrastination and increasing its "radical" demands, while it is progressing in a way that brings it very close to the stage of developing an atomic bomb.
temporary agreement
If, upon the resumption of talks, the United States sees that Iran's only goal is to buy time to achieve nuclear progress, it will not stand "idly by", according to Mali.
"We will have to consider other steps - diplomatic or otherwise - to try to deal with Iran's nuclear ambitions," he said.
Diplomatic options include concluding an interim agreement.
"The Biden administration could consider a short-term, limited agreement that freezes some of the most sensitive proliferation activities in exchange for some limited sanctions relief," Kelsey Davenport, director of non-proliferation policy at the Arms Control Association, told AFP recently. ».
The goal is to buy some time, while Tehran is much closer to acquiring a nuclear bomb than it was before.
But such an attempt would infuriate many in the United States, both Republicans and even some members of Biden's Democratic Party, who would see it as a very generous concession to Iran.
Complex Negotiations
"If Iran returns to the negotiating table with a long list of demands outside the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (the official name of the 2015 agreement) the United States could reciprocate," Davenport said, presenting its own list on Iran's role in regional conflicts and its ballistic missiles.
But that would unleash long and complex negotiations with uncertain outcomes.
There are no obstacles for Tehran to continue developing its nuclear program during that period.
extra stress
"The options other than reviving the agreement are not great," said Susan DiMaggio, a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"If there was a better plan, we would have heard of it," she said in statements to reporters on Friday.
Possibilities include increased economic sanctions, even though the Democratic administration continues to talk about the failure of Trump's "maximum pressure" approach.
The punitive measures could target China, which continues to buy Iranian oil despite the US embargo.
However, it is unlikely that Beijing will change its position.
American political figures opposed to the 2015 agreement, most of whom are conservative, stress that Washington must increase economic, diplomatic and even military pressures without waiting for the outcome of the Vienna negotiations.
Military option
As Biden was accused of weakness, his administration began toughening its approach in October, warning that "other options" than diplomacy were on the table to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power.
The White House did not specify what those options were, but it clearly hinted at the possibility of military action.
But the former US diplomat, Dennis Ross, said in an article that the "routine" reference to "other options" was no longer sufficient, as Tehran "no longer takes Washington seriously."
And he wrote in an article published on October 27, that "the Biden administration should put the possibility of military escalation on the table again if it hopes to achieve progress on the nuclear file."
But for Dimaggio, "it (military force) will not solve the problem in the end."
"In fact, the past confirms that the Iranians respond to pressure with pressure," she warned.
• Washington accused Tehran of procrastination and increasing its "radical" demands, while it is progressing in a way that brings it very close to the stage of developing an atomic bomb.
EU: Intensive work on talks
BRUSSELS ■ Reuters/
The European Union envoy, Enrique Mora, coordinating the nuclear talks with Iran in Vienna yesterday, said that he met with negotiators from China, Russia and Iran the day before yesterday, and the European and American teams met yesterday, before the formal talks later in the day .
"Preparatory work is going on intensively," Mora added on Twitter from Vienna, where the seventh round of talks kicked off yesterday.
World powers and Iran met yesterday to try to salvage the 2015 nuclear deal, but hopes for progress appear dim.
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