<Anchor> If
you look at the results of previous presidential elections in which a preliminary poll was conducted, the candidate who took the lead in the poll 100 days ago finally won.
Except for former President Roh Moo-hyun, both former and current presidents were leading the polls 100 days ago.
However, this election is characterized by the absence of a dominant candidate yet.
Let's take a closer look at the major indicators for reading the presidential edition in the mist.
Reporter Koh Jung-hyun, which indicators should we pay close attention to?
<Reporter>
Let's take a look at the change in support for the presidential election in the SBS poll conducted three weeks apart, including the election of Candidate Seok-Yeol Yoon and D-100 days of the presidential election.
Candidates Lee Jae-myung and Shim Sang-jung rose slightly, Yoon Seok-yeol was almost the same, and Ahn Cheol-su dropped slightly.
Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Seok-yeol, the two candidates, are again within the margin of error this time.
The gap further narrowed from 4 percentage points to 1.7 percentage points.
It can also be analyzed that it is the balance of power between Candidate Lee, who went on a regional tour after concluding the composition of the former captain in the midst of conflict and Lee's aggressive actions such as reforming the predecessor and reflecting on it once a day.
However, the part to pay attention to here is the shady class who say 'there are no candidates or don't know'.
It is around 23%, but less than 1% of voters who did not choose the two in the 2012 presidential election, which was a two-way structure between Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in.
That is why this election is called the 'election in the fog', where the outcome is not easily predictable.
To make things more predictable, let's take a look at the trends for three indicators that SBS started in July.
The first is public opinion about government re-creation versus replacement.
'Re-creation of government' peaked at 40.4% in July, and after a slight downward curve, it recorded 37.6% in this survey.
On the other hand, 'regime change' has steadily exceeded 50% since July, and although it decreased slightly in this survey, it is still the majority at 51.8%.
This could be seen as a favorable indicator for the opposition party.
The following is the state support map of President Moon Jae-in.
The positive response of 'doing well' has been maintained at around 40% since July.
Comparing the approval ratings of previous presidents in the last year of their tenure, the figure of 40% is not a small number.
So this can be interpreted as a good indicator for the ruling party.
Finally, let's take a look at party support.
In July, the Democratic Party recorded a higher value within the margin of error than the people's power, and in October, the people's power recorded a higher value than the Democratic Party within the margin of error.
Again, in this survey, the Democratic Party was 30.7% and the people's strength was 28.7%, so the Democratic Party got a high figure within the margin of error.
In a word, it is said that they are up and down, with the Justice Party at 4.4%, the People's Party at 3.1%, and the Open Democratic Party at 1.9%.
Now, in a nutshell, the president's approval rating is strong for the end of his term, but the irony is that the majority of public opinion for a regime change is in the ironic situation, and the support for political parties is in a mess.
In order to analyze the presidential election in the fog, we will have to look closely at the movements of these three indicators going forward.
In addition, the likes and dislikes of each candidate, the votes of voters in their 20s who have not decided on their minds, and whether or not to introduce a special prosecutor on the two allegations, Daejang-dong and the accusation, are also variables in the 100 days remaining.
(Video coverage: Jeong Sang-bo, video editing: Jeong Seong-hoon, CG: Lee Yeon-hee)
<Survey Overview>
Investigation Request: SBS
Research Agency: Next Research
Date and Time: November 27-28, 2021
Survey Subject: 1,7 men and women 18 years of age or older nationwide (wired RDD and wireless Virtual number extraction)
Survey method: Wired/wireless telephone interview survey (wireless 86%, landline 14%)
Response rate: 19.0% (1,7 people were contacted by 5,286 people, and 1,7 people succeeded)
Weighting method: Weighted values by gender, age, and region Buyeo (cell weighted/based on the resident registration population of the Ministry of Public Administration and Security at the end of October 2021)
Sample error: ±3.1%p (95% confidence level)
▶ Go to the poll statistics table