Cairo -

In conjunction with the rising voices calling in Israel to cancel an oil transport agreement with Abu Dhabi - which represents a direct threat to Egyptian interests - it was announced the inauguration of a commercial line linking the UAE to Turkey via Iran, which may also target the navigation movement in the Suez Canal.

Earlier this month, Tehran inaugurated the new trade route to Turkey, which the UAE can use to shorten the time of the current voyage and its path, which starts from the Emirati port of Sharjah to the Bab al-Mandab Strait through the Suez Canal and ends in Mersin, Turkey.

This comes at a time when Emirati-Turkish relations are witnessing a remarkable rapprochement, culminating in the visit of Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed to Ankara a few days ago, for the first time in 10 years, when several cooperation agreements were signed, including Emirati investments in Turkey of about 10 billion dollars.

In this report, Al Jazeera Net monitors the most prominent facts and figures about the Suez Canal compared to the new road, and we ask experts about its impact on the canal, which is one of the most important arteries of the Egyptian economy and an important source of foreign currency.

This is not the first project of its kind that poses a threat to the Suez Canal;

Abu Dhabi had previously agreed with Tel Aviv to inaugurate a pipeline linking the Red Bahrain and the Mediterranean, to transport Gulf oil to Europe, a project that was temporarily suspended due to environmental protests in Israel.

Months ago, the UAE and Russia signed an agreement to develop a container shipping line across the North Pole, in a route that Moscow is promoting as an alternative to the Suez Canal, and the Egyptian SUMED line that also connects Bahrain.

Although Egypt had shown interest in following up on these projects, it did not follow up on the new trade line, at a time when the region is witnessing transformations and contradictory approaches between regional powers, most of which are intertwined with Cairo on many issues.

Is the new trade road reflected negatively on Egypt?

According to maritime transport expert Hamdi Barghout, the repercussions of the new road on Egypt are represented in the presence of a negative impact, but not to a large extent, but it will affect direct Egyptian relations with Turkey and the UAE, according to his opinion.

In statements to Al-Jazeera Net, Barghout sees the absence of repercussions on Egypt, given that the inter-Arab-Turkish trade is not based on the Emirates, and attributed this to the following factors:

  • The trade that will pass through the new route represents a small part compared to the volume of trade passing through the Suez Canal.

  • Intraregional trade between Turkey and Egypt passes directly through the Mediterranean, not the Suez Canal.

  • Iranian trade to Turkey does not pass through Egypt, and Iran is not a major industrial country.

  • The UAE is a commercial and not an industrial country, and its trade depends on the surrounding countries.

  • The new road is unlikely to affect the SUMED line, which transports oil from the Red Sea port of Ain Sukhna to the Sidi Kerir port on the Mediterranean.

The power of the Suez Canal

In turn, the maritime transport consultant and expert in transport economics and feasibility studies, Ahmed Al-Shamy, ruled out the impact of the Suez Canal;

For several reasons, he explained to Al Jazeera Net, which are related to numbers, indicators, common interests and logistical aspects, and they can be summarized as follows:

  • Annually 1.3 billion tons of goods from international trade pass through the canal, and there is no international corridor through which this amount passes.

  • The Suez Canal accounts for about 12% of the international trade volume.

  • The new trade route is similar to its counterpart between India, Iran and Russia, and the two-way trade between the latter countries approaches 6 million tons annually, a load that passes through the Suez Canal in just 3 days.

  •  If its inauguration is assumed, its address will be an intra-trade.

    It is a limited quantity trade.

  • There is no comparison between inter-trade and international trade, such as the one that passes through the Suez Canal.

  • What was raised about the passage of the new road and its current counterpart in the Suez Canal does not seem accurate.

    The sea voyage from the UAE to Turkey through the Suez Canal does not exceed 12 days.

  • In the event of the reverse route via the new road, two means of transportation will be used, one marine (tankers from the Emirates to Iran) and the other land (trucks from Iran to Turkey).

  • The smallest container carrier operating on an international line currently has 1,200 containers.

    By comparing its passage in the two tracks, the process of loading, handling and unloading in the Suez Canal will take place once, while transporting the same container by land requires 1200 trucks for the loading and unloading process.

  • The land transit corridor will be between two countries with strict security measures.

  • Based on the above, the costs of freight, unloading and time to trade in the new route are much higher than transiting the same trade in the Suez Canal.

How is Egypt facing plans to launch alternative corridors?

According to maritime transport expert Hamdi Barghout, Egypt must:

  • Creating logistical alternatives, such as the inauguration of an industrial zone in the economic canal zone, and attracting industries and qualifying them for international competition.

  • The success of this is linked to the involvement of other regional competitors from countries that may be harmed by the presence of huge projects in the Canal Zone, which may push them to fight the Egyptian projects.

While the maritime transport consultant and expert in transport economics and feasibility studies, Ahmed Al-Shami, refers in this regard to the following points:

  • The Suez Canal aims to raise global trade transiting through it from 12% to 18% in 2030, and then to 35% in 2050.

  • The new project is a manifestation of an attempt to raise the canal's carrying capacity.

  • There are plans to inaugurate an eastern shipping lane (between the Red Sea and the Mediterranean on the Gulf of Aqaba) passing through Taba and Al-Arish in Sinai, parallel to the Suez Canal, and not competing with it, with a length of approximately 112 kilometers.

Why the Emirati insistence on searching for an alternative to the Suez Canal?

The announcement of the inauguration of the new commercial line came after the announcement of the temporary suspension of the "Eilat Ashkelon" project, which raises questions about the reasons for the Emirati insistence on creating international and regional alternatives and corridors for the Suez Canal.

Barghout attempted to answer them by pointing out the following:

  • The UAE is acting as a means of pressure on Egypt, so that it participates in all its economies and interests.

  • The UAE is a weak and economically fragile state and its investments are not strategic compared to international investments.

  • Egypt has a fertile field for international investments.

  • The UAE deals with Egypt through two means;

    The first as a close friend, and the second by twisting her arm with plans that threaten her paths and her strategic strength.

On the other hand, Shami attributed this to:

  • All countries - whatever they are - seek to increase their capabilities and compete with others.

  • How important is the Suez Canal?

  • The economy is the primary driver of politics between countries, regardless of bilateral relations.

  • There are historical problems between the Emirates and Iran, and the commercial link may be a goal to serve political alignments, but it will remain to serve intra-trade only.

  • There are contradictory alliances between the three countries, and incentives may be sought to strengthen them.

Will the trade route be a successful alternative to the Suez Canal?

Independent marine consultant and oil and gas industry expert Ibrahim Fahmy ruled out - in statements to Al Jazeera Net - that the new road would be a successful alternative to the Suez Canal;

For several reasons, the most prominent of which are related to transportation, infrastructure, and the quality of goods to be transported:

  • More than 80% of world trade movement passes through sea lanes, foremost of which is the Suez Canal, while the contributions of land lanes do not exceed 20%.

  • The sum of the time, effort, insurance and risks combined are in the interest of maritime shipping par excellence.

  • Road transport must have a well-developed infrastructure, such as high-speed railways, a secure road network, multiple terminals for freight, control, inspection, and customs processing, massive investment, and have historically stable relations between countries with land borders.

  • With the exception of oil and gas, the Arab Gulf region does not represent a significant weight in global trade;

    Due to the limited agricultural and industrial production and raw materials.

    In terms of consumption, it is a relatively small market for reasons related to the weak population mass, in contrast to the downturn in the global economy.

  • As for countries with large populations, such as Iraq and Iran, they suffer from austerity policies and difficult economic conditions, resulting from internal conflicts.

  • In view of climate change and the challenges associated with it, there is an international trend to reduce dependence on oil in the coming years and impose policies and procedures to reduce international oil prices, which makes investing in building long onshore pipelines extending for thousands of kilometers a great economic risk, unattainable at the present time.

  • Marine oil tankers - in and of themselves - are storage tools, oil can only be transported by land in specific sectors between countries at a high cost, especially when laying lines under the sea.

  • It is difficult to secure the transport of oil by land through pipelines in hot areas, in contrast to the large material costs and the long period of time to build long lines that require several years, which turns the land route into a weak point more than a strength, especially in light of the volatility of oil markets.

  • As for gas, most of its global trade is shipped by sea, with the exception of the Russian transport pipelines extending to Europe, which put pressure on them on the level of international relations and the calculations of balance and influence.

  • Attempting to find alternatives to Russian gas by building alternative lines coming from other countries to Europe, will inevitably face Russian obstruction.