Indirect talks between the United States and Iran to rebuild the nuclear deal will resume on the 29th as Iran accelerates nuclear development and the international community deepens concerns.
This will be the first discussion since the inauguration of an anti-US and conservative hardline government in Iran, but the gap between the two countries' claims is wide and it is expected to be difficult.
Indirect talks to rebuild the Iran nuclear agreement began in April, with
the lifting of sanctions imposed by the former Trump administration in the United States withdrawing from the agreement and
the restrictions on nuclear development promoted by Iran as a countermeasure. ,
Intermittent negotiations have been held on how to proceed.
Talks have been suspended since June, when the presidential election was held in Iran, but on the 29th, delegations from the countries concerned will gather in Vienna, the capital of Austria, to resume.
The newly born anti-US and conservative hardliners in Iran, the Raishi administration,
have said that they are still calling for the lifting of full sanctions
and that they are asking for a guarantee that the United States will not withdraw from the agreement again.
On the other hand, the United States says that sanctions related to terrorism and human rights cannot be lifted, and there is a big gap between the claims of the two countries, and it is expected to be difficult.
In addition, while talks were suspended, Iran is accelerating nuclear development in a way that greatly deviates from the nuclear agreement, such as increasing the storage of highly enriched uranium with a concentration of 60%, and experts such as the United States are using nuclear weapons. It is analyzed that the time to produce one nuclear fuel has been shortened to about one month.
Iran wants to use nuclear development as a lever to lift sanctions and proceed with negotiations in an advantageous manner, but the United States and the EU-European Union, which act as intermediaries, say that it is not easy to return Iran's nuclear development to its previous state. The view is widespread.
In August, President Biden said, "Prioritize diplomatic efforts, but if they fail, there are next options." The issue of nuclear development has reached a major critical point.
Iranian people suffering from inflation rate of 30% or more
Since the resumption of sanctions by the United States, the currency has plummeted and inflation has occurred in Iran, and prices have continued to rise by more than 30% every year.
Especially serious is the soaring house prices.
House prices in the capital, Tehran, are about seven times higher than they were four years before the US withdrew from the nuclear deal.
A 39-year-old man living in Tehran said, "The money you save in a bank may be half the value in half a year. No one can buy a house in this economic situation."
A 20-year-old man who works for a trading company said, "Salaries are not keeping up with inflation at all. In this economic situation, I can't think of any future plans such as marriage. I want to move to a more comfortable country."
One of the factors behind the soaring prices of houses is the rise in material costs, and according to companies that handle stone materials such as condominiums in the capital Tehran, prices have risen 6 to 10 times on average in the last four years.
Most of the equipment used for quarrying and polishing equipment are imported products, and it is said that the price must be increased accordingly.
Amir Mareki, who procures and sells stone materials, says, "Unfortunately, the quality is decreasing and the price is increasing every day. I feel that the industry as a whole is becoming more difficult."
As the currency continues to plunge, some companies are seeking transactions with crypto assets such as Bitcoin when buying and selling real estate, and there are moves to avoid local currencies.
Many people hope that sanctions will be lifted through indirect consultations with the United States, but there is widespread perception that progress will not be easy.
A 42-year-old woman said, "I don't think the negotiations will go well. I think people's lives will be even harder. I have no hope."
The gap between the claims of both countries
Indirect talks between the United States and Iran to restore the nuclear agreement began in April, but there is a big gap between the two countries' positions.
1 Scope of sanctions lifting
Iran is calling for immediate lifting of all the 1500+ sanctions imposed by the previous Trump administration as a condition for the return of the nuclear deal.
Meanwhile, the United States has indicated that it will maintain hundreds of sanctions against Iran in the name of "supporting terrorism" and "human rights violations" even if it returns to the nuclear agreement.
2 Is the return to the nuclear agreement an entrance or an exit?
Iran is in a position to settle talks with the United States with a rehabilitation of the nuclear agreement and has no intention of accepting negotiations in other areas.
On the other hand, the United States regards the return to the nuclear agreement as the entrance to various negotiations, and would like to discuss Iran's missile development and support for armed groups in the future, and limit Iran's actions.
3 Guarantee not to withdraw from the agreement
Iran is asking the United States to guarantee that it will not withdraw again in light of the unilateral withdrawal of the previous Trump administration from the nuclear deal.
This is especially emphasized by the anti-US and conservative hardliner Raishi administration, which was established on behalf of the Rouhani administration, which is an internationalist.
On the other hand, for the United States, guarantees that will constrain future government decisions are difficult to accept.
Iran's anti-American government bullish negotiations?
イランでは、核合意を推進し国際協調路線をとったロウハニ前政権に代わってことし8月、反米・保守強硬派のライシ政権が誕生しました。
制裁の解除が重要だとして核合意の立て直しを目指す方針ですが、アメリカとの間接協議には強い姿勢で臨む構えを見せています。
今月8日にはイラン外務省の報道官が、「より重要なのは今後アメリカの政権が、国際的な約束をほごにしないよう保証することだ」と述べ、アメリカに対して合意から再び離脱することがないよう、保証を求めていく考えを示しました。
国の実権を握る最高指導者のハメネイ師は一方的に合意から離脱して制裁を再開させたアメリカの対応を踏まえ、「西側に信頼はおけない。西側の協力を前提にすると必ず失敗に終わる。前政権の教訓をいかさなければならない」と述べていて、ライシ政権としてはアメリカに対する根強い不信感を抱えて協議に臨むことになります。
こうした強気の姿勢は、急速に進められた核開発に現れています。
IAEA＝国際原子力機関によりますとイランは今月上旬までに、核合意で認められている濃縮度3.67％を大幅に上回る、濃縮度60％のウランを17キロあまり製造しています。
1発の核兵器の製造には濃縮度90％以上のウランが25キロ程度、必要とされています。
核兵器に必要な核燃料の製造にかかる時間、「ブレークアウトタイム」は、以前は1年ほどだったのが、現在では1か月ほどまでに短縮されたという指摘もあります。
イランはあくまで平和利用だと主張していますが、原子力庁の報道官は「核兵器保有国を除いて、これほどの開発能力があるのはイランだけだ」と技術力を誇示しています。
Meanwhile, the Raishi administration is also pushing ahead with policies that are independent of the future of the nuclear deal and sanctions by the United States.
On the economic side, we are aiming for an economy that is not easily affected by sanctions by advocating a "resistance economy" that opposes sanctions and focusing on fostering the manufacturing industry.
In terms of diplomacy, we are advocating "focus on Asia and neighboring countries" in a way that sets us apart from Europe and the United States.
In September, President Laisi agreed to participate in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Leaders' Summit, which includes China and Russia, as the first overseas destination, and to begin the procedure for membership as a formal member.
At the meeting, President Laisi said, "It is necessary to build a mechanism within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to counter unilateral sanctions."
Professor Marandi of the University of Tehran, who is familiar with Iran's diplomacy, said, "The Laisi administration will take a more rigid stance toward Western countries. The more the United States maintains sanctions, the more Iran will have relations with China and Russia. Will be strengthened more and more. "
Biden administration's speculation
President Biden has criticized the unilateral withdrawal of the former Trump administration from the Iran nuclear deal, accusing Iran of reverting to the path of nuclear and missile development and worsening the situation, and is eager to return to the nuclear deal. Is shown.
By returning to the nuclear agreement, President Biden wants to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear-weapon state, stabilize the Middle East, and promote its own international cooperation.
However, returning to the nuclear agreement is not easy for President Biden.
Iran's Raishi administration's allegations
of lifting all sanctions imposed during the Trump administration and
guaranteeing that it not withdraw from the agreement again
are unacceptable demands for
the
United States.
In addition, Iran is developing nuclear weapons in a way that deviates significantly from the agreement as a countermeasure against the withdrawal of the United States from the nuclear agreement, and there is widespread view that it will not be easy to return to the previous state.
As Iran pursues nuclear development, President Biden said in August that "prioritizing diplomatic efforts but failing, there are next options", and if negotiations do not bear fruit, they will take stronger countermeasures. Suggested the idea to take off.
Expert "Strategic shift to gradually strengthen US pressure"
U.S. experts familiar with Iran's nuclear issue have analyzed that Iran's significant progress in nuclear development has made it even more difficult to rebuild the nuclear agreement, and depending on the outcome of the talks, the United States will move to Iran. It is pointed out that there is a possibility that the pressure will increase.
Eric Brewer, senior researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, CSIS, who is familiar with Iran's nuclear issue, pointed out that Iran's suspension of talks for about five months was "to promote nuclear development and enhance bargaining power." bottom.
Regarding Iran's nuclear development, it is difficult to possess nuclear weapons because it is under the supervision of the international community, and the time required to produce nuclear fuel for one nuclear weapon is significantly up to about 30 days. He expressed the view that it was shortened and analyzed that it was "in a very dangerous state."
He pointed out that for the United States, Iran's significant progress in nuclear development has "made it more difficult to reestablish a nuclear agreement."
In addition, senior researcher Brewer questioned the seriousness of the Iranian side in the negotiations, stating that the Raishi administration is skeptical of the nuclear deal, regarding the talks that will begin on the 29th of this month.
He added, "I don't think the United States will wait forever for the re-establishment of the nuclear deal. If the talks are not productive, the United States will open diplomatic windows but gradually exert diplomatic and economic pressure on Iran. It will be a shift to a strengthening strategy, "he said, and the talks could be a turning point.