It has entered a period of serious instability
Europe has become a democratic island trapped in a chaotic world
Right-wing extremists in a demonstration to defend the Polish border.
Reuters
Macron has a clear vision for the future of Europe.
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The accumulation of external threats and internal divisions, along with the weakening of the security alliance with America, the relentless Russian subversion, and China's war on Western values, all expose fundamental strategic weaknesses.
Europe increasingly resembles a democratic island trapped in a chaotic world, where the rising tide of authoritarianism, impunity and violation of international rules threatens to engulf it. Some European leaders understand this, especially French President Emmanuel Macron, but long-term policy remedies are still far from them. For example, it is clear that the use of immigrants by the Belarusian dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, to pressure the European Union is outrageous, and yet it worked, German Chancellor Angela Merkel called him for a chat, ending his post-coup isolation, and her unilateral behavior angered the Baltic states. It was a concession, not a permanent solution.
Constant intimidation by Russian President Vladimir Putin of Ukraine risks widening the war, and the recent reinforcement of the border with 90,000 Russian troops may be a rattling rumble, similar to the provocations in the Donbass and Black Sea last spring. And if this is not the case, Europe will only have itself to blame, and the importance stems from his de facto agreement to the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, and instability extends to the fringes of Europe to the Balkans, amid justified fears that Bosnia and Herzegovina will slide, once again, into conflict after 26 years of the Dayton Peace Accords.
The resurgence of ethnic nationalism, embodied by the separatist Bosnian Serb leader, Milorad Dodik, is being fueled by Belgrade and Moscow. The larger strategic problem is the inability of the European Union to deliver on its promises of closer integration with the region, and Europe's relationship with Turkey, which is a key guardian, is also ineffective. Thanks in part to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, when the latter threatened European Union members Greece and Cyprus last year, Macron sent naval forces into the eastern Mediterranean, and the rest of Europe sat watching.
bitter fight
Erdogan is also meddling in Ukraine and the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict, which erupted again, last week, yet Brussels pays him to deport refugees from the Middle East, so he hardly dares to confront him, and the cycle of instability pressing Europe revolves around more than Just a real or potential armed conflict, immigration is one of its biggest dilemmas.
Despite the severe Syrian refugee crisis in 2015, the EU still lacks an agreed humanitarian policy, and this guarantees more trouble down the road. Paradoxically, one of the main objectors is Poland, which rejects migrant quotas. Right-wing leaders, such as Hungary's Viktor Orbán, have fought a bitter battle with Brussels, over issues of rule of law and democracy, to EU solidarity.
Also disturbing is the way in which European public opinion appears to have accepted the illegal pushbacks and routine mistreatment of asylum seekers, whether in camps in Libya or on the beaches of Greece, in violation of EU law, and this reflects another wound: the growing influence of xenophobia and populists. Right-wingers, and the renormalization of ultra-nationalist politics across Europe.
If Europeans do not stand up for Western democratic values in a world dominated by clones and imitators of Donald Trump, who will?
Unfortunately, Britain cannot be looked at. The UK is no longer a reliable friend, under the leadership of Boris Johnson, which is sniping and mocking from the sidelines, and has become another marginal conflict zone for the European Union, and Britain is more worrisome than an ally, and the Secretary of Defense exploited , Ben Wallace, the crises related to Belarus and Ukraine, last week, to advance the agenda of Britain's exit from the European Union, and the conclusion of arms deals with Warsaw and Kiev.
Frankly, the UK has sent troops, not humanitarian aid, to the Polish border, and just as the era of instability in Europe owes much to events beyond its control, few would expect Trump to try to blow up what Franklin Roosevelt called the “arsenal of democracy” and the Western alliance with it. tries again.
Likewise few expected, as Merkel now acknowledges, that China would emerge as a dominant, aggressive and anti-democratic global competitor, and US President Joe Biden reassures Europeans that NATO, even after withdrawing from Afghanistan, is as vital as ever. Her contract with Chinese President Xi Jinping last week showed where his true focus lies.
Putin sees this, and smells blood.
space security
Europe's gas supply is one pressure point, covert cyberattacks is another, Russia's reckless anti-satellite missile test, which raised Europe's safety concerns, was the first recorded act of rioting in outer space, and Europe's inability to make Putin pay a heavy price. The aggression in Georgia and Crimea, its destruction of Russian democracy, its interference in foreign elections, and its murderous attacks on Alexei Navalny and other opponents on European soil add to the sense of retreat.
As far as China is concerned, there is nothing close to a united front, and this weakness encourages other stalkers, so what to do?
Europe is, as ever, a divided house, and Eastern Europeans continue to place their faith in Washington rather than Brussels, despite clear indications of yet another rupture across the Atlantic, should the Democrats lose the White House in 2024.
The EU bureaucracy is weak, its parliament is weak, Germany lacks a leader to unite all sides, and in France Macron is waiting for a fierce confrontation in the spring elections against the Russian-backed far-right.
As France prepares to take over the EU presidency, will other leaders recognize this crucial moment and support Macron?
In a world of sharks, snakes and fearsome beasts, Europe's independence, cohesion, and values are at stake as never before.
• The biggest strategic problem is the inability of the European Union to fulfill its promises of closer integration with the region.
• The European Union's bureaucracy is weak, its parliament is weak, and Germany lacks a leader who unites all parties.
• The UK is no longer a reliable friend, under the leadership of Boris Johnson, which shoots and jeers from the sidelines, and has become another marginal conflict zone for the EU.
Simon Tisdale - writer and political analyst
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