Shaun Rein, the founder and managing director of China Market Research Group (CMR), may be one of the Americans who know China best.
At the age of 44 this year, he lives and works in China half of the time.
In the past 10 years, he has successfully predicted major changes and transitions in the Chinese market many times.
It is explained in his books "The End of Cheap China" and "The End of Shanzhai China".
Lei Xiaoshan, founder and managing director of China Market Research Group (CMR).
Image source: photo courtesy of myself
Recently, Pang Wuji, a reporter from the Ministry of Economic Affairs and director of the Macro Acquisition and Editing Office of China News Service, had a conversation with Lei Xiaoshan.
Lei Xiaoshan believes that after the end of cheap China and copycat China, China will usher in a new transformation, that is, common prosperity.
"You can't just make one tenth of the people rich, but make sure that 90% of the people can get rich. At this time, both the United States and China will have more developed business and economy." Lei Xiaoshan said, this is important for including the United States. For multinational companies including enterprises, this means more opportunities and a better competitive environment.
The following is an excerpt from the full text of the dialogue:
Pang Wuji: You have written many international bestsellers about China. In your eyes, what changes have taken place in the Chinese market over the years?
Lei Xiaoshan:
In 2011, I wrote "The End of Cheap China".
It pointed out that multinational companies can no longer treat China simply as a manufacturing center, but as a sales center.
Affected by rising labor prices, the cost of doing business in China has risen, but at the same time the increase in Chinese income has also made China gradually become one of the world's largest consumer markets.
When I wrote this book, most American media, including the Wall Street Journal, said that I was wrong, but over the years, my views have been confirmed bit by bit.
Another book, "The End of Shanzhai China," says that China will become the most innovative country in the world.
In the past, China focused on innovation in business models, but in the future it will turn to innovation in original technologies.
Ten years ago, it was not necessary for (Chinese companies) to do this, because as long as the existing technology is obtained from the United States and other world markets, it will be worth tens of billions of dollars.
But now, we can see China's innovation in artificial intelligence, robotics, and quantum computers.
The quantum computer developed by the team of Academician Pan Jianwei is much faster than Google.
It can be said that my book and the views in the book are one of the best track records of China's economy in the past 20 years.
Now I am concerned about common prosperity.
Many foreigners do not understand or even fear common prosperity.
In fact, common prosperity is helping low-income groups, not trying to destroy capitalism.
Intelligent service robots at the National Library Station of Beijing-Hong Kong Metro Line 4 and Line 16.
Photo courtesy of Beijing-Hong Kong Metro
Pang Wuji: What new opportunities do you think China's promotion of common prosperity can bring to multinational companies?
Lei Xiaoshan
: From a regional perspective, after the reform and opening up in 1979, first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have benefited more.
If a person is from Beijing, it may be easier to enter Peking University, Tsinghua University and other prestigious universities during the college entrance examination, but if someone is from Anhui, Henan and other places, the difficulty will be much higher, which is unfair.
Therefore, common prosperity means not only the first- and second-tier cities, but also the benefit of more cities.
In 2010, I interviewed consumers in many cities in China. At that time, most people were most worried about corruption and pollution.
And in 2021, when we interview again, the biggest problem is no longer pollution and corruption-these two areas have been greatly improved, and now people are more concerned about housing, education and medical care.
This is exactly what Mutual Wealth is trying to solve.
The Chinese government hopes that everyone can achieve common prosperity, not just to make one tenth of the people rich, but to ensure that 90% of the people can get rich. At this time, both the United States and China will become more prosperous in business and economy. , The competitive environment is more fair.
I hope that American companies can go deep into China's third, fourth, and fifth-tier cities, because there will be greater possibilities in the future.
I think there are better opportunities in many fields in the future, such as sports health, smart manufacturing, and tourism.
During the epidemic, Sanya, Hainan has become a popular tourist destination, and China's high-speed rail and other transportation methods can further promote the development of domestic tourism.
Now people no longer complain about China’s poor hotel conditions, poor infrastructure facilities such as scenic toilets and roads, and everything is getting better.
In Hainan’s Tianya Haijiao Tourist Area, parents take their children to surf at the beach.
Photo by You Jianxing
Pang Wuji: What do you think of Sino-US economic and trade relations? Do both countries benefit from it?
Thunder Hill:
The prosperity of the American middle class is largely due to Chinese labor.
Without China, the United States would have been a poorer country in the past 30 years, and it would be impossible for so many middle-class people to afford Apple and Nike products.
Similarly, in the 1970s, China was still a relatively poor country, and its development required a lot of capital and provided a lot of jobs, many of which came from the United States.
There is no doubt that both countries have benefited from trade and cooperation.
When the two countries cooperate, both Americans and Chinese have a better life.
However, the Trump administration launched economic sanctions to attack China, and it also left many negative impressions about China in the hearts of the American people, thus messing up this cooperative relationship.
But what they said is not the truth.
The truth is that China has (in some areas) won the competition with the United States through low-cost and well-trained labor and good infrastructure such as roads, airports, and railways.
Some American politicians need to find a scapegoat for the problems of the American leadership and business groups themselves, so they have found China.
Data map: Chinese flag and American flag.
Image source: People's Vision
Pang Wuji: What do you think is the biggest misunderstanding and misjudgment of China by some people in the United States?
Lei Xiaoshan:
They don't understand how much support the Chinese government has received from the people.
This is not because the Chinese have been "brainwashed", but because the Chinese government has done a good job in improving and implementing policies, creating good jobs and economic opportunities, so it has received widespread support.
Secondly, there are prejudices and discrimination in some leadership in the United States.
Over the past 70 years, the United States has been the most powerful country in the world.
Moreover, the United States advocates military strength.
Now with the development and rise of China, some people worry that China's strength will weaken the strength of the United States itself, which makes them feel scared.
Lei Xiaoshan, founder and managing director of China Market Research Group (CMR).
Image source: photo courtesy of myself
Pang Wuji: In what areas do you think China and the United States can expand cooperation and promote the normalization of Sino-US relations?
Lei Xiaoshan:
One is the field of environmental protection; the other is the field of trade and investment.
Over the past decade or so, China has made great achievements in the field of environmental protection, and the United States and China have potential for cooperation.
On the other hand, the US business community currently does not see China as a threat, but as an opportunity. This is also a breakthrough in US-China cooperation.
Closer economic relations will reduce the possibility of military conflict.
It is important for China to continue to lay the "red carpet" for investment by American companies.