It lost its influence after the Taliban seized power
India seeks regional players to return to Afghanistan
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi receives former Afghan President Ashraf Ghani in New Delhi in September 2018. Archive
Regional conference in New Delhi on Afghanistan.
Reuters
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A few days ago, India hosted a regional security conference on Afghanistan, where the Taliban's seizure of power in the country dealt a severe blow to its interests there.
New Delhi has enjoyed close ties with Kabul for nearly 20 years, but dealing with the new Taliban regime presents it a challenge.
The Taliban enjoys a long relationship with Pakistan and seeks to establish close ties with China, which are considered adversaries of India.
The Taliban victory also galvanized militants in the region, raising New Delhi's fears of terrorism.
This week's conference brought together national security advisers from Russia, Iran and five countries in Central Asia.
India sought to underscore regional concerns about the risks of instability in Afghanistan, including terrorism and drug smuggling.
Indian officials also viewed the conference as an opportunity to bring New Delhi back into dialogue.
The conference allowed New Delhi to convey its core concerns to the friendly regional actors who still wield influence in Kabul, a strategy it is likely to adopt in the coming months.
India has recently established official channels of communication with the Taliban, and it has had only one known meeting with the movement's officials since they seized power.
But the conference will do little to strengthen India's influence in Afghanistan.
Its limited relations with the Taliban, along with the possibility of deepening Pakistani and Chinese influence in the country, suggest that India will be omitted from the text.
Both Pakistan and China have already hosted senior Taliban officials.
Beijing is seeking to invest in infrastructure in Afghanistan, and Islamabad has already allowed Taliban officials to hold diplomatic posts in it.
The decision by China and Pakistan not to attend the conference shows that neither country is seeking to help India continue to look after its interests in Afghanistan.
Apparently Islamabad, which claims that New Delhi sponsors anti-Pakistan terrorists in Afghanistan, will not allow India to set foot in Afghanistan.
It has already failed to respond to a recent request to allow Indian trucks to cross Pakistani territory, to deliver food shipments to Afghanistan.
India's waning influence in Afghanistan is not only a strategic loss, but also jeopardizes its investments there.
Since 2001, $3 billion in development assistance to Afghanistan has resulted in more than 400 projects, including a dam, a highway, a children's hospital, and the Parliament Building.
Although India suddenly finds itself in a bind, it will not surrender to the fait accompli.
New Delhi is seeking assurances from the Taliban that its assets and citizens remaining in the country are still safe.
However, India lacks sufficient leverage to recover from its strategic setbacks in Afghanistan under the new regime.
The Indian government will need to voice its concerns through the countries with greater influence, including the United States - which met with China, Pakistan and Russia in Islamabad on Thursday, but the prospects for US-India cooperation in Afghanistan are limited, although New Delhi could It depends on Washington to look after its interests there.
But India can start with the countries present at Wednesday's conference.
Russia has engaged closely with Taliban leaders in recent months, and Iran has provided military support and safe haven to Taliban leaders.
Central Asian countries also wield influence by providing electricity to Afghanistan and offering cross-border trade opportunities.
Their territory could also provide a platform for US counterterrorism activities.
In Afghanistan, India must do a delicate diplomatic trick: compensate for its loss of influence by strengthening ties with other regional actors while staying away from its Chinese and Pakistani rivals.
• Beijing seeks to invest in infrastructure in Afghanistan, and Islamabad has already allowed Taliban officials to take up diplomatic posts with it.
• India's diminishing influence in Afghanistan is not only a strategic loss, but also jeopardizes its investments there.
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