China News Service, November 18, According to the BBC Chinese website, the immigration crisis at the border between Poland and Belarus continues to ferment and evolve into a major contradiction in the relations between East and West Europe in 2021.
In the second half of 2021, tens of thousands of immigrants hoping to go to EU countries appeared on the border between Poland and Belarus.
These migrants tried to cross the border in the wild forest where the night temperature dropped below zero degrees Celsius, including many women and children, and some died on the spot.
Both the UN Human Rights and UNHCR voiced their concerns about the crisis.
Many senior officials in Western countries accused Belarus of trying to use refugees to attack EU countries including Poland, and then accused Russia of being the "mastermind behind" the crisis.
What is the context of the immigration crisis on the border between Belarus and Poland?
What direction might it take next?
What is the origin of the escalation of conflicts between Belarus and the EU?
The escalation of contradictions between the EU and Belarus began with political disputes, and the fuse was the 2020 Belarusian presidential election.
Belarus officially announced that President Lukashenko was re-elected for the sixth time, winning the support of 80% of voters.
But the country’s opposition accused Lukashenko of "suspicion of election fraud."
The European Union subsequently announced that it would not recognize Lukashenko's re-election and introduced a series of sanctions against Belarus.
On May 23, an Irish Ryanair airliner flying from Greece to Lithuania landed at the Belarusian capital Minsk airport due to a "bomb threat."
Subsequently, the Belarusian authorities arrested a Belarusian opposition person who was taking the flight.
This move aroused strong criticism from European countries.
Politicians in European countries called on the EU and NATO to intervene.
The European Union then imposed tougher sanctions on the Belarusian government.
The contradiction between the two sides has further escalated.
Why is the border immigration crisis intensifying?
Since the conflict between Europe and Belarus rose in 2020, the Belarusian authorities have cancelled or greatly simplified the tourist visa application requirements for 76 countries to enter Belarus.
These include many countries affected by armed conflicts, including Syria, Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan.
In 2021, Belarus has greatly increased the number of flights to the Middle East.
Since then, more and more immigrants or refugees have gathered in the forests along the border between Belarus and Poland.
The European Union accused Lukashenko of encouraging immigrants or refugees to come to Belarus.
Since the summer of 2021, Iraq has been one of the most important starting points for immigrants.
In September, the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs, Joseph Borel, tried to negotiate with the Iraqi authorities to reduce the number of flights from Iraq to Belarus.
Now, the largest number of people trying to enter the EU in this way are Kurds from Syria.
How do immigrants cross the border?
At the beginning of the immigration crisis, Polish and Lithuanian border guards allowed people to pass and sent them to special reception facilities.
At the same time, the foreign ministries of the two countries immediately accused Belarus of organizing this new phenomenon.
When hundreds of people started trying to cross the border every day, Poland and Lithuania stopped allowing them to enter and began to reinforce the border with barbed wire.
Now the only way to cross the borders between Poland and Lithuania through Belarus is illegal, but many people are willing to try.
They either broke through the border guards or were still searching for unguarded areas.
The border between Belarus and Poland is approximately 400 kilometers long, and a large part of it is forest or swamp.
Poland uses water cannons and tear gas against immigrants trying to cross the border.
Poland also claimed that its military and police were injured in the conflict.
Where does the immigration go?
Both Poland and Lithuania are transit countries for refugees and immigrants.
Many people plan to go to Germany, France, Austria and the Netherlands, where they may have relatives or friends and acquaintances.
According to the German authorities, at least 5,000 people have arrived in Germany through Belarus.
This in turn triggered the EU's dissatisfaction with Poland on immigration issues.
There are many women and children among refugees and immigrants at the border between Poland and Belarus, and there is a serious humanitarian crisis in the area.
Will refugees and migrants stay in Belarus?
Yes, but the Belarusian authorities have never reported their exact number.
According to residents of Minsk, hundreds of people have set up camps in shopping centers, underground passages and entrances to residential buildings throughout the city.
Perhaps because of this, the Belarusian authorities also began to tighten the conditions for arrival in the country in mid-November 2021 due to fear that the situation will get out of control.
In particular, they stopped issuing visas to citizens of some countries at the airport, including Syria, Iran, Afghanistan, Nigeria, and Yemen.
Has Russia played a role in the immigration crisis?
Senior officials in Western countries accused Lukashenko of creating the refugee crisis as the "mastermind" behind Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The Russian authorities categorically rejected these allegations.
Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov called these accusations irresponsible and unacceptable.
Nevertheless, German Chancellor Angela Merkel called on Putin to intervene in this crisis. The EU considers this a "mixed attack" aimed at destabilizing the EU.
But Putin made a statement and denied that Russia was involved.
He accused that Western countries led by the United States launched wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and other places, which is the root cause of the refugee problem.