Kiev -

In light of strict measures imposed by Poland along its border with Belarus, to deter asylum seekers from entering its territory and the European Union, Ukraine is anticipating the crisis will soon spread to its borders, which made it, according to observers, mobilize its forces and coordinate with its regional allies.

According to observers, this alertness and movement was evident through marathon coordination contacts between officials of Ukraine and Poland, at the level of the presidency, the interior and the relevant security services, especially after Warsaw warned that the Belarusian authorities might push migrants towards Ukraine, to infiltrate later into the European Union.

Indeed, Ukraine has strengthened its border with Belarus by deploying about 8,500 soldiers, training border police exercises in preparation for possible clashes with migrants, allocating 15 helicopters to transport more troops to the border, and considering imposing a state of emergency in the northern border areas, if necessary.

It seems that Ukraine is apprehensive about the crisis spreading to its territory, with its various burdens and repercussions, to the extent that one of the brigades in its army threatened to “eliminate” anyone trying to cross the country’s borders from the Belarusian side, before retracting and interpreting the threat as being limited to “reconnaissance groups.” subversive”, may try to slip under the mask of asylum seekers.

In this regard, an expert at the "Ukrainian Institute for the Future" Ilya Kosa said that the crisis has not yet reached Ukraine, but its arrival will be more dangerous than its confinement today within the Belarusian-Polish border.

He explained to Al-Jazeera Net that the Ukrainian-Belarusian border is much longer than the Belarusian-Polish border, and it is known that controlling it was and still is difficult, which means that things in it may get out of control, and this is what Ukraine fears, for political, economic and social reasons, as he put it.


The role of allies

In addition to its security alert, Ukrainian diplomacy is active in activating regional and international alliances that would prevent the crisis or limit its repercussions, according to officials and analysts.

Here emerges the "Lublin Triangle" alliance, which was held in July 2020 by Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania in the Polish city of Lublin, and is a tripartite platform for cooperation between these countries, and to confront what they consider a "Russian threat" to them.

In this context, former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin said that the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine should hold coordination meetings with its counterparts in the Triangle countries and Latvia, with the participation of Brussels, to come up with a common position and strategy.

Here, Ilya Kosa explains that Ukraine views the migrant crisis as a crisis created by Russia, which controls the decisions and actions of its ally, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk, and therefore, it is logical to mention the "Lublin Triangle" alliance, which brings together the countries concerned, according to him.

Kosa considers that "it is illogical to rely too much on the alliance, because it is a recent one, and it was not set up to quickly face crises of this magnitude, while the European role will - without a doubt - be larger and more influential."


Warranties and Support

Within the framework of its alliances and partnership with the European Union, politicians believe that Ukraine should push the Union to provide guarantees and support, in the midst of the crisis.

"If the migrants reach our borders, we must get guarantees from the Europeans, that they will help the migrants, either by transferring them to countries in the European Union, or by repatriating them," said former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin.

Kleman believes that Ukraine should receive urgent support, in the same way that the European Union will help its neighboring countries of Belarus, and this is what I call "European solidarity", without which, as he puts it, there is no "European integration".

It is noteworthy that last Monday, many asylum seekers tried to cross the border to enter Poland from Belarus, and there are currently about 4,000 asylum seekers at the borders of the two countries, according to the Polish news agency.

The European Union accuses Lukashenko of coordinating the arrival of the wave of migrants to the eastern side of Europe, in response to the European sanctions imposed on his country after the brutal suppression of his regime against the opposition.