Is Russia preparing the next invasion of Ukraine?

It is the big question that hovered over the two Brussels institutions on Monday, the EU and NATO.

The EU foreign ministers met in the Europaviertel to decide on further sanctions against Belarus.

A few kilometers away, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitri Kuleba was received by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

When the two of them stepped in front of the media after their conversation, Stoltenberg raised the alarm bell.

"In the past few weeks we have seen large and unusual concentrations of Russian forces near the Ukrainian border," said the Norwegian, "similar to the Russian deployment in the Crimea and the Black Sea earlier this year."

Thomas Gutschker

Political correspondent for the European Union, NATO and the Benelux countries based in Brussels.

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The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had already expressed concern about "unusual military activity by Russia" on Wednesday.

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry announced that Moscow had pulled together 90,000 soldiers.

In April there were a good 100,000.

Some of them were withdrawn, but around 80,000 remained in their regular locations.

And the other forces, from Siberia, left their heavy equipment behind.

In September they took part in the military exercise Sapad (West), after which they were reportedly stationed on the northern border of Ukraine, not far from Belarus.

At the end of October, the first satellite images were circulating on social media pointing out this.

At the beginning of November, CIA director William Burns went to Moscow.

"Must be prepared for all scenarios"

The Bloomberg news agency reported late last week that Washington had told EU officials “its concerns about a possible military operation”. This may also have been on the agenda when Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was received by President Joe Biden in the White House on Wednesday; the commission kept a low profile. The German side said at the end of the week that there was no evidence of an impending attack. Russia of course denied that it had this in mind.

Stoltenberg has now rekindled the worries, as he did in the spring. He did not want to comment on the troop strength or the Russian motives. One should not speculate too much, said the NATO Secretary General, but reminded in the same breath that "Russia has shown its will to use these forces against its neighbors Ukraine and Georgia". The Ukrainian foreign minister also remained vague. "We must be prepared for all scenarios," said Kuleba, and "take any measures that will help deter Russia and prevent the worst scenarios."

Foreign Minister Heiko Maas also met with Kuleba on Monday afternoon.

The SPD politician pointed out that the Chancellor had "addressed the situation very clearly" in her conversation with President Vladimir Putin.

The French colleague Jean-Yves Le Drian also talked to the Russian Foreign and Defense Minister about it.

"We make it clear to Moscow at all levels that we see this and that we assume that this cannot be a starting point for further escalation."