The heads of diplomacy of the countries of the European Union decided on Monday, November 15, new sanctions against Belarus.

The European Union accuses Minsk of having organized the arrival, since August, of thousands of migrants at its borders with Belarus, in particular in Poland. 

To contain this arrival of migrants, Poland announced Monday the construction of a wall on its border with Belarus in early December. For the time being, a sharp barbed wire fence has been erected at the border. The authorities also mobilized police, border guards and thousands of soldiers. The country refuses help from Frontex, the European Union's border surveillance agency, whose headquarters are in Warsaw. Migrants who manage to cross the border are sent back to Belarus, which in turn pushes them back. On October 22, the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) castigated the forcible returns, saying they "constitute a violation of international law," and called on Belarus and Poland, "to give access to asylum to people who request it at their borders ". 

This declaration follows the validation, Thursday, October 14, by the Polish Parliament, of an amendment to the national law on foreigners which legalizes the controversial practice of refoulement at the border. This measure forces foreigners arrested at the border just after having crossed it illegally to leave Polish soil and prohibits them from entering Poland and the Schengen zone for a period of "from six months to three years". Warsaw also grants itself the right "to leave without examination" any application for international protection lodged by a foreigner arrested immediately after crossing the border illegally, unless he has arrived directly from a territory "where his life and his freedom are threatened ".

>> Read also: Belarus: how migrants found themselves trapped at the gates of Europe

Since these migrants arrived legally in Belarus, by plane, provided with visas, the Polish authorities consider that they cannot benefit from this protection.

On November 2, Poland also established a state of emergency along its border.

This decision is criticized by many NGOs because it prevents them from helping migrants and prohibits access to all non-residents, including journalists.

Contacted by France 24, Jean-Yves Potel, historian and political scientist specializing in Central Europe, analyzes the position of Poland, led by the conservative and nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, in this migration crisis. 

Why is Poland refusing the intervention of Frontex border guards? 

The Polish government is in a delicate situation with the European Union and in its country, in particular since its reform of justice [judged by the Court of Justice of the EU incompatible with the European legislation] and the demonstrations after the new law anti -abortion [the Polish Constitutional Court has prohibited any abortion except in cases of rape or incest or when the mother's life is in danger].

So by playing on this migratory crisis, the government has managed to gain some points in the polls because public opinion is afraid. 

The Polish authorities reacted "à la Trump", by disembarking at the border with thousands of men in front of a few hundred migrants, including women and children. The Polish Prime Minister made speeches, dressed as a soldier, at the border saying he was going to save Poland and Europe. Ideologists close to the government have said that this crisis was reminiscent of the Russo-Polish war of 1920. The government is using this migration crisis as a godsend to try to play national unity, with a speech which asserts that Poland is in danger in the face of the Russians and the European Union. 

The presence of Frontex would have annoying consequences for the Polish government.

This would mean that the authorities would be forced to open the border and bring in migrants because, in theory, Frontex's mission is to identify legitimate asylum claims and return migrants who do not have them.

It would then be necessary to coordinate with the other Member States to distribute the migrants in the EU.

But Poland refuses this scenario because it absolutely does not want to have the support of the EU, to go back and therefore to question its ultranationalist discourse. 

Can Poland be forced to reverse the amendment to the immigration law? 

Poland may have the European Court of Human Rights on its back, because of this decision [to authorize refoulements], which is contrary to international law [in particular to the 1951 Geneva Convention relating to the status of refugees signed by Poland and Belarus].

The Polish government is caught in a trap: it will be forced to back down and let Frontex intervene, but probably not in the short term. 

Is the European Union putting enough pressure on Poland to comply with the Geneva Convention? 

The European Union is acting, but it is a little too conciliatory with the Polish authorities on the situation of migrants, in particular because, on this question, the member countries are divided.

On the financing of walls by the European budget, for example, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, do not agree.

It is a European quack which refers to internal questions.

About ten European countries are much more aligned than others on Poland's position. 

Apart from the high number of migrants trying to enter Poland through Belarus, why is the situation particularly tense at the border with Poland and not with Lithuania and Latvia, which are also facing a wave of migration?

Unlike Poland, Frontex's intervention is a game-changer in Lithuania [and Latvia].

There is also the hypothesis that Alexander Lukashenko uses these migrants in Eastern Europe against Poland and Lithuania, which harbor the leadership of the Belarusian internal opposition.

Because these leaders of the opposition to the Belarusian dictator who have taken refuge in these two countries are very organized, communicate via social networks, have official spokespersons and meet heads of state (...) which bothers the Minsk regime. .

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