Kiev -

The migrant crisis on the Belarusian-Polish border is echoing in Ukraine, which has sounded the alarm and is anticipating a repeat of the scene on its northern border.

During the past 48 hours, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky discussed the crisis by phone with his Polish counterpart Andrzej Duda, without revealing any further details.

Soon after, the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine held an emergency session to discuss this issue.

The Council decided to strengthen border security with Belarus, by sending more guards to those border areas, backed by forces from the National Guard, the police, and even the army, if necessary.


new crisis

Ukraine, which is fighting a war against pro-Russian separatists in its east, is mired in several political and economic crises, and is greatly affected by the Corona pandemic and the repercussions of other global crises, is afraid that it will be the scene of a new crisis called "immigration", which may not be able to bear its burdens.

Indeed, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has warned Ukraine that migrants may try to enter the European Union, not only through his country, but through Ukraine as well.

In a Facebook post, Ihor Hogva, editor-in-chief of the opposition website Strana (Country), which was closed down by the Ukrainian authorities weeks ago, said that “the forecast regarding the migrant crisis does not call for reassurance, as Poland will not allow them to enter from the eastern flank of the European Union, which He will not blame Warsaw for whatever it does, but rather will accuse Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, "the last European dictator as they describe him in the Union," referring to the possibility of Poland using force and violence to repel immigrants.

"In such a situation, migrants may flow into the European Union through Ukraine, and although the border with Belarus is closed, he does not rule out facilitating some of our corrupt security structures under the temptation to earn money to secretly move thousands of new immigrants to Europe."

Although Ukrainian Interior Minister Denis Monastirsky stressed that "in the event of an influx of migrants, Ukraine will respond within the framework of the law", Hogva considers that "this reality will push the country towards facing economic, social, moral and political crises with the European Union, its ally and main supporter." .

Hundreds of migrants in Belarus trying to cross its border into Poland (Reuters)

Russian game

It is remarkable that many in Ukraine link this crisis directly to Russia, considering that "it is being managed by Moscow and that President Lukashenko has become just a tool in the hands of Putin and the Kremlin."

Writer and political analyst Vitaly Bortnikov tells Al Jazeera Net, "Russia plays a major role in this crisis, especially as it is Lukashenko's only ally in the region today, and is benefiting from the existence of tension on the borders of the European Union, to pressure him according to its interests," indicating that the neighboring countries and the European Union refused Recognizing Lukashenko's victory in the Belarusian presidential elections in 2020, and later supporting the opposition movement against him.

As for the writer and political analyst Dmitro Voronkov, he says, "Lukashenko turned to Putin after the West abandoned him, and threw himself into the trap of Russian loans, until he was ready to implement any agenda the Kremlin wanted, in exchange for retaining power, whatever the cost."

He added to Al-Jazeera Net, "What Lukashenko is doing on the borders of the Union is real state terrorism, exploiting the need and suffering of immigrants."


just the beginning

Analysts believe that the current crisis is only the fuse of a larger and more dangerous crisis looming on the horizon, and a prelude to an escalation that may threaten Ukraine and the countries of the region, and perhaps with military force.

"Putin pushed security forces to Belarus to support Lukashenko in the face of his opponents, and the presence of Russian forces at the base of the "Yenia" region near the northern border and the border with Belarus increased to 90,000 soldiers," says writer and political analyst Dmitro Voronkov.

"Ukraine is afraid of being surrounded by Russian forces from 3 sides today (occupied Crimea in the south, the separatist-controlled Donbass in the east, and Belarus in the north), and it is well aware that force is a preferred option for the Russian leadership in dealing with crises, especially if they are internal or close," Voronkov added. Of which".

"Even Poland and the Baltic states share these fears with Ukraine, because they know that the migrant crisis is artificial and managed by Russia, and the latter seeks to restore its influence in all regions of the former Soviet Union," he added.

He concludes by saying, "I think that the option of military escalation is more likely today than ever, especially in light of NATO's interest in cooperating with Ukraine, but it remains the last option, and it may be preceded by other political and economic options, such as the one we saw when Moscow announced the severance of its relations." With NATO, I triggered a gas crisis."