Ten years after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi, will Libya be able to emerge from chaos?

The international community wants to believe it by calling, Friday, November 12, for the holding of "inclusive" and "credible" elections in December and by threatening with sanctions all those who would obstruct them.

"The Libyan transition must be completed and the elections must take place in the best possible conditions. The next six weeks are decisive," said French President Emmanuel Macron, closing the international conference in Paris.

But the obstacles remain.

Because "after a decade of violence, divisions, instability, the prospect of the elections arouses the doubt, even the opposition, of all those who fear democratic change and of all those who have become the profiteers of war", he warned.

The presidential election of December 24 - the first in the country's history - and the legislative elections remain very uncertain against the backdrop of renewed tensions between rival camps, between the west and the east of the country, as the deadline approaches.

These polls, the culmination of a laborious political process sponsored by the UN, are supposed to turn the page on a decade of chaos since the fall of the Gaddafi regime in 2011 and put an end to divisions and fratricidal struggles.

"All Libyans agree that there will be elections on December 24," assured Mohammed el-Menfi, the president of the Libyan Presidential Council, present in Paris.

"Organizing the elections simultaneously on the scheduled date is a historic goal that we will strive to achieve," Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dbeibah said.

Threat of sanctions

But, for Abdelhamid Dbeibah, the other priority is, by this deadline, to "obtain concrete guarantees that the results of these elections will be accepted and that those rejected will be subject to sanctions".

A concern shared by the thirty or so leaders present, who warned in the final declaration: "People or entities inside or outside Libya who would try to hinder, question, manipulate or tampering with the electoral process and the political transition will have to be held to account. "

Observers point to the risk that the presidential results will be rejected by one party or another - and that the country then sinks again into violence, with a contested president and without a parliament.

The final declaration was signed by countries involved alongside the belligerents - Egypt, the United Arab Emirates or Russia with the strongman of eastern Libya, Turkey with the Tripoli camp - or in the settlement of the crisis (Germany, Italy, France).

It was also approved by the United States, of which Vice President Kamala Harris participated in the meeting, and by the neighboring countries of Libya, Egypt, Algeria or Tunisia in the lead.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi was received for lunch by Emmanuel Macron before the conference.

Emmanuel Macron, who has already organized two conferences on Libya in 2017 and 2018, was accused of having favored the strong man of eastern Libya, Marshal Khalifa Haftar, to the detriment of the western camp, even if Paris now displays greater neutrality.

Departure of the mercenaries

The Paris conference also endorsed "the Libyan plan for the departure of foreign forces and mercenaries". 

Several thousand Russian mercenaries - from the private group Wagner -, pro-Turkish Syrians, Chadians and Sudanese are still present in Libya, according to the Elysee

Emmanuel Macron insisted on the need for an "immediate" withdrawal of "mercenaries and military forces" from Russia and Turkey, which has also deployed soldiers.

It is a question of "the stability and security of the country and of the whole region", he insisted, welcoming a "first step" with the announcement on Thursday of the withdrawal of 300 mercenaries on Marshal Haftar's side.

But Turkey shows itself in no hurry to initiate a withdrawal of its forces. 

"The withdrawal must be complete and in stages, gradually, and in a synchronized manner" between East and West, noted for his part the head of Russian diplomacy, Sergey Lavrov, in a separate press conference.

"If the balance of forces on the ground is broken, the risk of renewed fighting will worsen," he insisted.

"There is a certain amount of reluctance on the Turkish side. It's a good thing that we can see a first withdrawal, it will serve as an example. Things have started," summarized German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

With AFP

The summary of the week

France 24 invites you to come back to the news that marked the week

I subscribe

Take international news everywhere with you!

Download the France 24 application

google-play-badge_FR