I can't buy Christmas gifts November 11th, 15:34

"I can't buy Christmas gifts."

Now, I hear this kind of scream from American homes.

US GDP = personal consumption, which accounts for about 70% of gross domestic product.

Among them, the Christmas sales season is the time when consumption is most active because many people buy gifts from family and friends.

What exactly is happening at that time?

(Daisuke Esaki, General Bureau of the United States)

Christmas tree does not arrive

"I'm in trouble because I haven't received the Christmas tree that I should have received from China,"

says a long-established company that produces and sells artificial Christmas trees in New Jersey, eastern United States.

When I visited the showroom, many glittering Christmas trees were exhibited.

95% of the company's tree is produced in a factory in China and shipped to the United States by container ship.

However, this is a series of cases where the tree does not arrive as planned.

When I was guided to the warehouse, empty spaces were conspicuous here and there.

The reason why the tree does not reach is that it is difficult to secure a container when shipping from China to the United States.

And the main factor is the lack of truck drivers from transportation companies that carry trees from American ports to warehouses.

In addition, due to the shortage of containers, the cost of shipping containers from China to the United States has risen from about 7 to 10 times the average year, forcing the tree price to rise by 20% to 25%. ..

Chris Butler, CEO of Christmas tree production and sales company

"I'm still waiting for the goods to arrive. I never wanted to raise the price, but I had to do it to carry the tree. This is short-term. I think we have to overcome this problem next year as well. "

I can't choose a Christmas present

The incident also spread to retail sites selling Christmas gifts.

Christian Geiger (35) lives in eastern New York.

I look forward to making gifts at a nearby Christmas grocery store every year to buy gifts for my two children, 8 and 3 years old, and a total of 12 nieces.

However, I soon realized that the scenery of the store was different from the usual year.

Empty space on the product shelves.

Some shelves are lined with cardboard boxes so that they don't look like they're out of stock.

The types of stuffed animals I was looking for were more limited than usual.

I also noticed some products whose prices have increased since last year.

When I interviewed the store, I hadn't received more than 100 containers that should have arrived from China or Thailand.

Due to the lack of delivery of 15% to 20% of all products, the warehouse had a large empty space.

Nathan Gordon, Vice President of Retail,

"We've done our best to avoid raising prices every year, but this has forced us to raise prices due to higher shipping and labor costs."

For Geiger, Christmas is an important opportunity for families to unite their hearts.

I'm trying to buy online because I couldn't find a good gift at the general store, but again, it's said that it's out of stock and that the price and shipping fee are higher than usual.

Christian Geiger

"Christmas is a special event for us. But we can't believe it because it's out of stock and expensive. It's the most stressful Christmas we've ever had."

The gateway to the uncrowded sea

As we have seen, the background of the incident is the disruption of the supply chain = supply network that occurred in the Corona disaster.

In the United States, economic activity has resumed and demand for various things has recovered sharply, but the supply network to support that demand has not been established in time.

This is also called "supply constraint".

At the port of Los Angeles, the "gateway to the sea" in the United States, ships from China and Southeast Asia continue to berth offshore waiting for landing due to labor shortages.

The number is close to 80 as of the end of October.

President Biden announced in mid-October that he would support the port's 24-hour operation, but the situation has not improved since then.

And the land transportation network that transports cargo from ports to the United States is also suffering from a serious labor shortage and driver shortage.

The reality of the shortage of truck drivers

What is the reality of the shortage of drivers?

I visited a shipping company in Midwestern Missouri, which has 3,500 trucks towing trailers.

What surprised me was that 250 units, which is close to 10% of the total, were not used.

Because there is no driver, one of the drivers who spoke to him said, "The labor shortage has never been so severe."

President of the shipping company Greg Orr

"The reality is that we have to refuse to carry 4000 pieces of luggage a week due to the limited amount of truck drivers we can carry. Customers are urging us to deliver more every day. I'm coming. "

The shortage of truck drivers is due to the fact that it is difficult to hire mainly younger generations due to the harsh working environment, and that the logistics have been temporarily stopped due to the corona disaster, and the drivers have been retired one after another. ..

For this reason, the company will fully subsidize the cost of obtaining a license at a driving school, and will also provide a truck driver who joined the company as a full-time employee with a bonus of 10,000 dollars (about 1.1 million yen). We are rushing to secure drivers through improvements.

In the "headwind" of the world economy

Experts in Japan and the United States point out the impact of supply chain turmoil and the outlook for convergence.

Nomura Securities, USA Senior Economist Aichi Amemiya

"While the supply network is confused, demand is strong. That is why the prices of goods are rising so much in the United States, but if this continues, the supply network may be improved. Even so, people think that inflation will continue to be far from the reality. There is a risk that it will usher in a persistent high inflation era. "

Wells Fargo Investment Institute

Scott Len

"There is demand but supply is not keeping up and what should be on the shelves cannot be sold. This turmoil will not be significantly eased until late next year. There is a risk of a “headwind” for both the US and global economies and a decline in economic growth. ”

On the 3rd, the Federal Reserve Board, the central bank of the United States, decided to change its policy to reduce the scale of quantitative easing that had been continued as a response to the crisis of the Corona disaster.

Next year, the focus will be on when to raise rates while looking at domestic inflationary pressures.

Meanwhile, companies facing turmoil may be increasingly rethinking their supply chains.

In fact, the Christmas tree company we interviewed this time has also begun to reconsider a system that relies on transportation from China.

An incident caused by the sudden resumption of economic activity due to the stagnation of the Corona disaster.

The incident is changing the landscape of the American holiday season.

If it is prolonged, it will affect the global economy including Japan and the management strategies of companies, so it seems necessary to keep watching without prejudice.

Reporter of the US General

Bureau

Daisuke Esaki

Joined in 2003

After working at the Miyazaki Bureau, the Ministry of Economic Affairs, and the Takamatsu Bureau, he is currently affiliated from this summer.