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November 11, 2021 The first doses of the anti-Covid vaccine drop by 75% in three weeks, there are still 2.7 million over 50s to be vaccinated; the third doses do not take off. "We need a gear change to contain the fourth wave." This is what emerges from the weekly monitoring of the Gimbe Foundation. The monitoring also reveals, for the fourth consecutive week, vaccine supplies at the stake. Daily administrations drop to 170,000 and the new vaccinated people drop to 108,000.

As of November 10 - the Gimbe Foundation informs - 99,901,969 doses have been delivered: in the absence of new supplies for the fourth consecutive week, the stocks of mRNA vaccines are reduced, reaching 8.8 million doses. Also on 10 November (updated 6.11) 79% of the population (46.784.051) received at least one dose of vaccine (+127.761 compared to the previous week) and 76.4% (45.243.732) had completed the vaccination cycle (+379.124 compared to the previous week). The total number of administrations (1,025,882) decreased slightly (-4.8%) in the last week, with a 7-day moving average of 169,844 administrations / day.

After touching 440,000 in the week 11-17 October, in three weeks the number of new vaccinated people fell by 75.4%: of the 108,497 new vaccinated in the week 1-7 November, 72.2% belong to age groups that include people of working age. Concerning the people still to be vaccinated, both the almost 2.7 million over 50s at high risk of serious illness and hospitalization, and the more than 1.2 million in the 12-19 group who negatively affect safety in school environments are worrying.

Vaccination coverage with at least one dose of vaccine is highly variable in the different age groups: from 97.1% of the over 80s to 74% of the 12-19 group and, compared to the previous week, the increases are increasingly modest. The efficacy of the vaccine on severe disease is confirmed to be very high and the incidence of diagnoses, hospitalizations, admissions to intensive care and deaths is significantly lower in people vaccinated with a full course, in all age groups, compared to non-vaccinated people.

However, particularly in the over 60s, the efficacy against severe disease is slightly but progressively decreasing, especially since the delta variant has become prevalent. According to the latest report of the Integrated Covid-19 Surveillance of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità, for hospitalization in intensive care the effectiveness in the period 5 July-31 October is 90% in the over 80s and 94.8% in the 60-79 years, while for hospitalizations in the medical area 88.8% in the over 80s and 91.5% in the 60-79 age group.

"In reiterating the uselessness of measuring circulating antibodies for vaccination decision-making - comments Nino Cartabellotta, president of the Gimbe Foundation - these data confirm the indications for the booster dose for the categories at risk identified by the Ministry of Health and the need to accelerate its administration ".

Comparing the data of the week 27 October-2 November with those of the week 3-9 November, the new cases of Covid-19 went from 29,841 to 41,091 (+ 37.7%), the deaths from 257 to 330. They continue to rise also hospital admissions of patients with symptoms, which went from 2,992 to 3,436 (14.8%) and patients hospitalized for Covid in intensive care, which went from 385 to 421 (+ 9.4%), as well as people in isolation domiciliary, increased from 81,070 to 96,348, equal to + 18.8%.

In addition, in the last three weeks, Gimbe monitoring notes, the increase in viral circulation is well documented by the increase in both the positive / people tested ratio (from 3.6% to 9.9%), and the positive / swab ratio molecular (2.4% to 4.7%). 

"With the increase in circulation of Covid-19 which is reflected in hospitalizations, the progressive decline in vaccination efficacy and the small increase in new vaccinates, the acceleration in terms of third doses is essential to contain the fourth wave". Thus Nino Cartabellotta, president of the Gimbe Foundation.