Crisis on Poland's eastern border: the double threat to the EU

It was only two weeks ago that Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki warned the EU against starting a “third world war” against his country. The same Morawiecki now speaks daily about the fact that Poland is defending the whole EU in a “hybrid war” in the crisis on the Belarusian-Polish border, and warmly thanks the community for the solidarity with his country. This is mutually exclusive: the EU Commission, which has just accused the Polish government of attacking the foundations of the EU, now asserts at every opportunity that it is firmly on the side of Warsaw in the dispute with the Belarusian ruler Alexandr Lukashenko.

The escalation at the border brought about by the Belarusian regime changed the tone between the Polish government and the EU from one extreme to the other overnight.

But in the matter of the dispute over the rule of law in Poland, nothing has changed.

The government in Warsaw is making no move to restore the independence of the judiciary.

On the contrary - it is apparently preparing further purges of the courts from unpopular judges.

And the Constitutional Court, which found in October that the EU treaty was in substantial contradiction to the Polish constitution, will deal with the question of whether the same applies to the European Convention on Human Rights at the end of November.

Lukashenko wants to put the EU in a hopeless situation

The time of kind words between Poland and the EU will therefore not last long. This seemingly grotesque oscillation between attacks and expressions of solidarity within a few days reveals that the EU in Poland is threatened from inside and outside at the same time. Because both are correct: the drama staged by Lukashenko with tremendous contempt on the Belarusian-Polish border is an attack on the entire EU, in which Poland is entitled to the full support of the community - while at the same time the attack on the Polish government The independence of the judiciary endangers the functioning of the EU so fundamentally that it can actually no longer help but withdraw financial support from Poland.

This constellation makes the conflict on the Belarusian-Polish border even more explosive than it is anyway. The seemingly insoluble dispute between the EU and the Polish government and Poland's self-isolation in the EU are likely to be the reason why Lukashenko directs the main stream of migrants to the border with Poland and not to the smaller neighbors Lithuania and Latvia. Poland has the greatest prospect of deepening the existing cracks in migration policy between the EU states - or exposing the Europeans by provoking a human catastrophe.

By taking action against his own people, Lukashenko has already shown that he does not care about the life and health of people. If, besides a desire for revenge because of the sanctions imposed on him by the EU, he has anything like a plan, then it is to bring the Europeans into a situation from which they cannot get out without losing face: open the borders, then they give after him - which, following the example of the Kremlin (and to its satisfaction), he would see as a call for further escalation. The suffering at the border would not stop, it would affect more people.

If, on the other hand, the EU watches when a few meters from its external border under the eyes of the border guards of one of its member countries, rows of people die miserably from exhaustion, emaciation and cold, it pulls them down to its level, so to speak. It is no coincidence that Russian propaganda has hit exactly this point since it took up the subject in the past few days. This is a wonderful way to discredit the EU's commitment to human rights in Russia, Belarus and elsewhere.

The situation is made even more complicated by the fact that the Polish government follows Lukashenko's logic, sees the protection of the border primarily in military categories and refuses to take humanitarian steps.

All efforts would have to be made to find ways to save as many migrants as possible from the trap into which Lukashenko lured them without playing his game.

If you listen carefully to the mutual expressions of solidarity of the past few days, then cracks can be discerned between Warsaw and Brussels on this issue, which, in addition to the dispute over the rule of law, can openly break out at any time.

The EU's double test in the East is only just beginning.