We hadn't actually imagined autumn 2021 like this: The corona incidence reached new pandemic highs, despite the vaccination campaign.

67 percent of the population are fully vaccinated, and yet the number of hospitalizations and deaths is rising steeply again, mostly among those who have not been vaccinated.

But not only.

There have been 145,185 likely vaccination breakthroughs since the start of the vaccinations, the RKI reported on Thursday.

Every eighth deceased in the group of adults under 60 years of age had been vaccinated in the past month, and among those over sixty the figure was as high as 43 percent.

Can you still rely on the vaccination?

Sibylle Anderl

Editor in the features section.

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These numbers are unsettling. As is so often the case, you have to take a closer look at them. Because, of course, one must consider here: A very small proportion of a large group can be as large in absolute terms as the very large proportion of a small group. In other words, the greater the number of people vaccinated, the greater the number of unlikely vaccination breakthroughs, even if the individual risk is still much lower than that of the unvaccinated.

If the vaccination rate is factored in accordingly, the data gives a more positive picture: According to the RKI, the probability of hospitalization was reduced by 89 and 85 percent in the past month among vaccinated people compared to the unvaccinated group, depending on the age group. dying of Covid by 92 and 86 percent.

This is in line with figures from other countries.

It was reported from the USA around mid-September that people who had been vaccinated there had a ten-fold lower risk of hospitalization and an eleven-fold lower risk of death as a result of a corona infection since the vaccination campaign began.

Not a good starting position

Vaccination still protects against death and serious illness in the vast majority of cases. This is a great success that cannot be taken for granted, because the appearance of the delta variant, which is now almost exclusively in circulation, has reduced its effectiveness. Also not to be taken for granted: the vaccination appears to be safe. Its possible consequences have already been studied on billions of people around the world. Last week, for example, the American Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published a study with more than ten million participants, which showed that there was no statistically increased likelihood of death for reasons independent of Covid - including unexpected side effects - among vaccinated people compared to unvaccinated people . What the vaccine does in the body is well understood.Incidentally, this also applies to the effect of the virus itself. There is no doubt about the possibility of long-term consequences: What it can do in many organs, including the brain, when it rages unhindered, has meanwhile been medically well documented and quite disturbing.

So whoever gets vaccinated is doing something for their own health - whether that also applies to the health of others is another question. One thing is clear: if people who have been vaccinated are infected less often, the entire infection process will be slowed down. Current studies show, for example, for mRNA vaccines that the probability of a symptom-free infection for vaccinated people is almost 75 percent lower than for unvaccinated people, even with Delta. You can actually see the effect in a comparison of the reproduction numbers of the federal states: the higher the vaccination percentage in the population, the lower the R-value. But are vaccinated people less contagious if they do become infected? There is now new data from Great Britain. A contact tracing study there showed that the average infection rate hardly depended onWhether the infected person was vaccinated or not was mainly determined by whether the household members were vaccinated. However, there were indications that the viral load in vaccinated people decreases somewhat faster than in unvaccinated people. In other words: the probability of being infected at all as a vaccinated person is significantly reduced. But if it hits, it is still contagious.

So what does that mean for the Corona autumn?

First of all: the vaccinations are working, but the effect is waning, especially for older people who were vaccinated early.

The likelihood of infectious contacts is currently high.

This is not a good starting point, because the current vaccination status in the population is not enough to slow down the spread of the virus.

The Delta variant is too contagious for that.

For an autumn without further restrictions, the vaccination gap must be closed quickly, as countries like Portugal or Spain have done.

Otherwise there is only one thing left to do: be careful, test and refresh your vaccinations.