3,750 nuclear warheads in the US arsenal
America's options to deter China's nuclear ambitions are not easy
China is constantly developing its nuclear weapons in preparation for war.
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America has thousands of nuclear warheads.
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After decades of maintaining a relatively modest nuclear arsenal, China is now rapidly moving toward better, and more disastrous, weapons.
And this trend will be dangerous at any time.
But with the rapid deterioration of relations with the United States, the possibility of catastrophe is very likely, as both sides need to restore stability to these relations, before the world faces a new and devastating nuclear race.
And the Bloomberg News Agency says, in a report, that it has become difficult in recent months not to notice China's growing nuclear ambitions.
Satellite images indicate that China is building large numbers of new ICBM storage sites.
China has produced intercontinental ballistic missiles that are difficult to target and can be launched faster.
China is strengthening its fleet of ballistic missile submarines and developing nuclear-capable bombers.
Perhaps, one day, the most impressive weapons, including a supersonic glider that China announced it tested over the summer, could evade US missile defenses.
The US Department of Defense expects to more than double China's stockpile of warheads by 2030. These successes are potentially destabilizing, especially in light of the ambiguity of China's nuclear goals and the ambiguity of its military doctrines.
There is also ambiguity regarding Beijing's pledge that it will never be the first to use nuclear weapons, as well as talk of converting some missiles to a "launch as soon as there is a warning" position.
Possible nuclear war
The combination of placing conventional and nuclear warheads in some bases, and on some missiles, could spell disaster in any conflict if an adversary cannot determine whether or not it is facing a nuclear attack.
Moreover, as the size and sophistication of China's arsenal increases, so does the potential for such a conflict.
Chinese leaders may be more comfortable waging a conventional war over Taiwan if they are confident that they have achieved a nuclear stalemate with the United States, since their refusal to even formally discuss these issues, let alone participate in any arms control talks, only deepens the lack of trust.
delicate balance
Faced with this new reality, the United States will need to strike a delicate balancing act.
On the one hand, it needs to maintain its own deterrent.
The administration of President Joe Biden should continue bipartisan efforts to develop the Navy's fleet of ballistic missile submarines, while the Air Force should work to develop unmanned means of delivering nuclear weapons, including drones and air-launched missiles, as well as purchase bombers. B-21.
On the other hand, the White House needs to keep this threat in mind. It is possible that many new ICBM depots will remain empty, mostly to confuse American target setters.
Even if China quadrupled its stockpile, it would still be far from the 3,750 warheads in the US arsenal.
Absorb the first blow
In addition, many of China's new policies—including mixing conventional and nuclear weapons, and firing on warning—are already tailored to confront the United States and Russia.
At the moment, China appears more interested in ensuring that it absorbs and responding to a first strike than in being on par with the United States in terms of number of weapons.
This makes it imperative for the US Department of Defense not to overreact.
On the one hand, China should carefully consider how much it is spending on missile defenses, which are fueling the race to develop hypersonic weapons and are not at all likely to fully protect against attack by America. Even better is to focus on enhancing traditional potential. The best way to prevent a war over Taiwan is to convince China that the costs of such a war would be too high. This will require equipping US forces with new long-range anti-ship missiles, surface and undersea drones, and flexible battlefield networks. The United States should also deepen coordination with allies, such as Japan and Australia, on crisis scenarios, while ensuring that Taiwan has the weapons and training necessary to hold together, so that help can arrive.
Most important, when he meets his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, by video link later this year, Biden should stress the need to stabilize the broader US-China relationship, beginning with the nuclear issue. China may well consider that keeping the United States guessing about its intentions offers it a strategic advantage. But Biden should stress that better relations will remain uncertain if China engages in uncontrollable nuclear competition.
In order to build confidence, the two sides should start a new nuclear dialogue, establish more robust crisis response mechanisms, and maintain the possibility of formal arms control talks.
The Bloomberg report concluded at the end that the United States and the Soviet Union needed the Cuban missile test, semi-lethal, to realize the value of greater nuclear transparency, diplomacy and communications, and even then things were not always smooth sailing.
There is no justification for repeating the same mistake.
• China's leaders may feel more comfortable waging a conventional war over Taiwan if they are confident that they have achieved a nuclear stalemate with the United States, as their refusal to even formally discuss these issues, let alone participate in any arms control talks, only deepens Distrust.
• The United States and the Soviet Union needed the Cuban missile test, semi-lethal, to realize the value of more nuclear transparency, diplomacy and communication, and even at that time things were not smooth sailing. There is no justification for repeating the same mistake.
• The combination of placing conventional and nuclear warheads in some bases, and on some missiles, can lead to disaster in any conflict if an adversary cannot determine whether or not it is facing a nuclear attack.
Taiwan boosts reservist training amid tensions with China
TAIPEI ■ Reuters /
The Taiwan Defense Ministry said, finally, that it will increase training for its reserve forces next year, including doubling combat and firing exercises, after China increased its military activity near the island, which Beijing did not rule out regaining control by force.
Tensions have escalated between Taiwan and China, which it considers part of its territory, in recent weeks, with Beijing intensifying its political and military pressure, including the frequent entry of its warplanes into the Taiwan Air Defense Determination Zone.
Taiwan Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-ching described the situation last month as the "most dangerous" in more than 40 years and urged increased military spending on home-grown weapons.
The Ministry of Defense said in a statement that starting next year, the mandatory training of reserve forces will be increased to 14 days, instead of the current five or seven days "in order to effectively raise the combat capabilities of the reserve forces."
The new program will be applied to about 13% of the reserve forces, numbering 110,000 personnel, whom the ministry intends to train next year, before taking any additional decisions to expand training.
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