It is uncertain whether China will actually have a thousand nuclear warheads in 2030, as the US Department of Defense predicts.
A lot can happen in nine years, both politically and economically.
There is no doubt, however, that Xi Jinping's nationalistically charged modernization course also includes a strong increase in the military, including nuclear weapons.
China is clearly working to make its arsenal more powerful.
It is also a response to new American systems, such as missile defense, and the growing conflicts with the West.
While China used to regard its comparatively small nuclear force as an instrument of minimal deterrence, today the need for nuclear support seems to play a role.
Even according to the calculations of the Pentagon, China would still be a long way from the nuclear capacities of America and Russia.
In Washington, however, many will plead for a further strengthening of their own strengths, because everything that goes beyond the status quo is perceived as threatening in the struggle with China.
These are the ingredients for a classic arms race.
How the SPD wants to initiate global disarmament talks in such an environment, it can soon prove in the government.