• Several French media revealed on Tuesday that the ex-hostage Sophie Pétronin had returned illegally to Mali several months ago, and that the country's gendarmes were looking for her.

  • This case comes at a time when tensions between Mali and France are at their highest, against the backdrop of Operation Barkhane.

  • According to the experts interviewed by

    20 Minutes

    , the case of Sophie Pétronin, a minor at first sight, could be exploited by the Malian government, as much to put pressure on France as to ease tensions with Paris.

Tuesday, Mediapart and RFI revealed, to everyone's surprise, that Sophie Pétronin had returned to Mali.

The 76-year-old aid worker allegedly entered Malian soil illegally with his son last March, less than six months after his release.

The announcement provoked the ire of the French government, which deemed "irresponsible" the act of the ex-hostage, held for nearly four years by a jihadist group in the north of the country.

The event takes place in the midst of a diplomatic crisis between France and Mali.

And if the matter seems minor, the symbolism behind it is much less.

Was Sophie Pétronin's return to Mali really a secret?

Friday evening, the General Directorate of the Malian gendarmerie launched a search notice against the former French hostage, explaining that his presence had been reported in the south of the country. However, the arrival of Sophie Pétronin on Malian soil does not date from this weekend, but from last March. According to information from RFI, after several visa applications refused by Bamako, she went to Senegal with her son Sébastien and crossed the Malian border by road. "On the border between Senegal and Mali, there are gendarmes who control the identity of absolutely everyone", indicates the doctor in political science and lecturer at Sciences Po Lyon M'Baha Moussa Sissoko.

However, according to sources close to her family, Sophie Pétronin would never have hidden her identity from police officers, reports RFI.

"The presence of Sophie Pétronin was therefore an open secret, the Malian authorities were aware from the start, but they tolerated it", assures M'Baha Moussa Sissoko.

The timing of this revelation would therefore not necessarily be a matter of chance.

Can the presence of the ex-hostage in Mali impact Franco-Malian relations?

As IRIS researcher Serge Michailof reminds us, the arrival of Sophie Pétronin is "a minor and secondary subject compared to others, such as the possible installation of the Russian private military company Wagner in Mali, or the question of to know if France will maintain its base in Gao ”. Indeed, relations between Paris and Bamako have deteriorated considerably since September, in particular when the Prime Minister, Choguel Kokalla Maïga, accused France of "abandonment in full flight" after the latter decided to divide by two the strength of the Barkhane counterterrorism operation.

"Sophie Pétronin's question is therefore an epiphenomenon, but there is an instrumentalisation of her case by the Malian government in a very tense and very troubled geopolitical context with France", reports Caroline Roussy, researcher at IRIS. “Is it to remind France that Sophie Pétronin was released thanks to Mali's discussions with the jihadists? “Asks the expert. Or does this have to do with the fact that “the release of Sophie Pétronin had coincided with the tactical redeployment of Operation Barkhane? “Asks Caroline Roussy again.

For M'Baha Moussa Sissoko, "it is probably to bring about a rapprochement with France" that his presence was made public by the Malian government.

A pretext, therefore, after the Malian Prime Minister called "to resume dialogue with France", assures the specialist in Mali.

What will be the fate of Sophie Pétronin when she is found?

On what the Malian government will decide once the gendarmes have arrested Sophie Pétronin, the experts do not all agree.

For Serge Michailof, there is a very good chance that the ex-hostage will be "directly expelled, because she entered illegally".

Bamako would thus send a message to Paris on the issue of illegal immigration.

"A way of saying: 'you don't want us? We are going to react in a symmetrical way", "adds Caroline Roussy.

But Bamako could also "show a sign of appeasement towards France", according to M'Baha Moussa Sissoko, who does not rule out the possible regularization of the septuagenarian.

“Especially since Sophie Pétronin is fully integrated into Malian society.

She had been living in Gao since 2001, has an adopted daughter in Mali and has become Muslim, the religion practiced by 90% of the country's inhabitants.

"She feels more Malian than French", assures the doctor in political science.

What event is likely to worsen the situation?

In the current situation, the presence of Sophie Pétronin could therefore have a symbolic impact on Franco-Malian relations, negatively or positively. On the other hand, if humanitarian aid were to be kidnapped again by jihadists, the situation would not be the same. "It has already cost quite a lot in Mali", underlines Serge Michailof, referring to the 200 jihadists released in exchange for the hostage, "including five-six fairly important figures of the movement".

"France also has something to be angry about, because it had to pay one way or another for its release", continues the expert.

Government spokesman Gabriel Attal has already said that Sophie Pétronin's act endangered "her security", but also "the security of our soldiers".

According to M'Baha Moussa Sissoko, if she returns to the north of the country to her NGO, in Gao, “there is indeed a good chance that she will be taken prisoner”.

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