Cairo -

With the Sudan crisis entering its second week, the United Nations Secretary-General's Special Representative to Sudan, Volker Peretz, revealed mediation efforts that are currently taking place in Khartoum with all parties, noting that Egypt is among the countries that are making these efforts.

In the midst of official and press reports on mediation efforts between the civilian and military components in Sudan, the government spokesman’s office reiterated, on Wednesday, that Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok is “detained at his residence by order of the putschist authorities.”

He stressed Hamdok's adherence to the conditions for the release of all detainees, and the restoration of constitutional institutions prior to October 25, before engaging in any dialogue.

The Egyptian position is still "unclear" at the official level regarding the "coup" of army commander Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan on the "constitutional document" whose provisions have been frozen and talks about partnership with the forces of freedom and change, despite the escalation of political and security tensions in the southern neighbor.

This position prompted observers to go to the possibility that Cairo was the one who "engineered the coup" and pushed the military component, as the closest to its policies and positions, to undermining the role of civilians in power, in contrast to others who considered that the Egyptian authorities were "surprised" by Al-Burhan's moves that led to the current crisis. .

In this regard, two Egyptian analysts on African affairs and Egyptian national security agreed - in separate statements to Al Jazeera Net - that Cairo's position on the crisis is primarily aimed at stabilizing Sudan and preserving its higher interests in light of considerations of the vital extension of Egypt's national and strategic security.

They stressed that Egypt's means, within the framework of mediation, to resolve the crisis, is to quickly reach compromise solutions between the two parties to the conflict, according to UN and other intelligence efforts led by the head of the General Intelligence Abbas Kamel, without disclosing them until they are completed.

Where is the mediation and where?

For nearly two weeks, Cairo has been silent about the crisis, despite media leaks about the role of Egyptian intelligence.

Paradoxically, in the midst of the current crisis, the Egyptian army and its Sudanese counterpart conducted joint military maneuvers to secure the borders, from October 19 to 28, at the Mohamed Naguib Military Base (northwest of Egypt).

Also interesting was the position of the Arab League, which also tweeted, outside the leak of official statements by some capitals that demanded adherence to the constitutional document, and seemed close to the Egyptian position, a position considered by Western reports to have come at the behest of Cairo.

#Arab_League expresses concern over the developments in the situation in #Sudan and calls on the Sudanese parties to abide by the signed transitional arrangements https://t.co/kim2jmSNJD pic.twitter.com/19Y6Noh1zT

— League of Arab States (@arableague_gs) October 25, 2021

This position raised Western questions about the extent of Al-Burhan's ability to rely on Egypt's support, in light of considering the positions of the Arab League in line with the positions of the Egyptian regime.

On the other hand, the American newspaper (The Washington Post), quoted a senior Western diplomat (which it did not name), as saying that Egyptian officials "were surprised by the recklessness of the army, like a number of Western governments."

In light of the UN's assertions that Egypt is among the countries that are making efforts to settle the Sudanese crisis, questions remain about the reality of the Egyptian position on the current events, and what role is it currently playing in relation to these developments?

Arab and Western press reports quoted Egyptian intelligence sources as saying that officials, including intelligence chief Abbas Kamel, spoke with Al-Burhan and the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), in an attempt to restore calm and mediate in the formation of a new government.

She referred to the Sudanese leaders' demand, in Cairo, to send a high-level intelligence delegation, as a party that enjoys the confidence of most members of the Military Council;

To bring the views closer, as happened last year.

intelligence role

In his reading of the Egyptian position on the current events in Sudan, Hani Raslan, the advisor of the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, saw that Egypt’s main interest is the stability of the country, stressing that the alternative represents a direct threat not only to Egypt, but all other axes and directions.

In statements to Al Jazeera Net, Raslan said that Egyptian mediation to resolve the crisis is in place in light of Minister Abbas Kamel's communications, which indicate efforts are being made in this context, but usually they are not announced and their details remain far from the media until results are reached.

He added that the only way that Cairo seeks to stabilize Sudan and preserve its supreme interests is to reach compromise solutions between the two sides of the crisis, namely the Sudanese army and the security system and the Rapid Support Forces on the one hand, and the Alliance of Forces of Freedom and Change on the other.

Regarding the current events in Sudan, Raslan explained that they are in crisis and it is clear that stability cannot be achieved without reaching compromise solutions between the two parties, noting that the current moment seems to be divergent and divergent.

He added, "The Sudanese army cannot rule alone and I know that it does not want that. On the other hand, the experience of freedom and change was not at the required level in power, and there are large sectors of the people reticent about their performance in the past two years," he said.

The Egyptian analyst warned of what he described as the repercussions of continuing to demonstrate and civil disobedience, explaining that it is not practical in the context of living hardship in general, expecting that the views of the parties will converge in the coming period.

middle area

And the expert in national security and African affairs, Mohamed Abdel Wahed, picked up the same thread, saying that his country is following what is happening in a momentary manner, and it stands in the middle of all sides of the crisis, as it stands by the Sudanese street, and has a state of concern about the outbreak of violence and instability in the street. Sudanese, for Egyptian national security considerations.

Regarding his country’s vision of the crisis, he stressed that Cairo always encourages support for state institutions, whether security, military or financial, which maintain their shape and stability;

In light of the common challenges, the most important of which is the crisis of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which poses a threat to the water security of the two countries.

He stressed that it is in Egypt's interest to have a strong regime in Sudan that pushes Ethiopia towards a binding legal agreement related to the process of filling and operating the dam, in addition to his country's keenness on the security of its borders and not allowing it to be breached.

In response to a question about Egypt’s position on supporting the Burhan plan, or a return to the constitutional document, or a third trend, Abdel Wahed said that the format of the document, according to the mediation initiatives presented, has begun to change, and therefore Egypt will be keen on the stability of Sudan within the framework of local, international and regional initiatives, which seek to disarm Sudan Defuse the crisis and the return of stability.

A jump and an international parachute

However, he expected that all these initiatives would be under an international umbrella, and would not deviate from the proposal presented by Volker Peretz, head of the United Nations Integrated Mission to Support the Transitional Phase in Sudan (UNITAMS), which focuses on 3 foundations, which will be worked on after taking opinions between The civil and military sectors.

The proposal is to restore Prime Minister Hamdok and give him full executive powers, appoint a government of technocrats in a limited time, and form an honorary Sovereignty Council of 3 national figures, in addition to forming a Security and Defense Council led by the military part.

The security expert considered that this initiative reproduces the transitional period before last October 25, but in a different and better way, by separating the military component from the civilian for the purposes of overcoming the concern of the former military component that its civilian counterpart will take over power, including the sovereign bodies, which may Be a major reason for the recent trends of proof.

While he considered that the proposal gives strength to preserve the components of the state, especially the army and the security services, but he added that this model may lead to more controversy and chaos, especially within the civil part.

He explained that it is difficult to agree in the future again on the formation of a government and a legislative council representing all Sudanese sects, given the tribal and regional structure, in addition to being a leap on the constitutional document, and an attempt to escape the problem of marginalizing the political incubator of the former civil component, represented by the forces of freedom and change.