There are those who claim that Abiy Ahmed's reconciliation with neighboring Eritrea, which gave him the Nobel Peace Prize, was in fact war preparations.
That he could in this way secure an ally in Eritrea with his dictator Esaias Afwerki in an inevitable coming conflict with the Tigray region's political organization TPLF.
Whatever the case, the conflict became a reality less than a year after the Peace Prize, and Abiy Ahmed received military support from Eritrea.
Now it looks like he may not be able to count on support from Afwerki anymore.
The war is going in the wrong direction with Tigray rebels on their way at full speed towards the capital and the outside world on their way to turning their backs on Abiy Ahmed.
At least the western world.
Suspicions of genocide are being investigated
And when a UN report now talks about war crimes and people in the United States are even said to want to investigate suspicions of genocide, then Eritrea probably does not want to be involved anymore.
Many experts are now convinced that Abiy Ahmed's days are now numbered.
The question is mostly what the end will look like, they say.
Street fights in Addis Ababa or that he is forced to resign and leave the country.
Risk of violence spreading
The Ethiopian government has branded TPLF a terrorist.
The organization was dominant in the regime that Abiy Ahmed took over in 2018 after nationwide protests.
Perhaps he had hoped for more support from the outside world after tributes and the Peace Prize.
But now he seems to be more alone than ever.
There is a risk that the violence will spread and that Ethiopia will fall apart like Yugoslavia.
In a desperate maneuver, Abiy Ahmed has now called on all the people of Addis Ababa to arm themselves.
And somewhere on a shelf is a Peace Prize that probably everyone in the Norwegian Nobel Committee would rather forget.