Acceleration of China's nuclear program worries Pentagon

Europe 1 with AFP 8:53 p.m., November 3, 2021

The Pentagon is concerned about the acceleration of China's nuclear program, noting that China is modernizing its military to "counter the United States" in the Indo-Pacific region and facilitate a reintegration of Taiwan, which it considers one of its provinces.

In a report released Wednesday, the US Department of Defense by the Pentagon estimates that Beijing is developing its nuclear arsenal much faster than expected and can already launch ballistic missiles armed with nuclear warheads from land, sea and air.

"At least 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030"

"The acceleration of China's nuclear expansion could allow it to have 700 nuclear warheads by 2027," says this annual report from the US Department of Defense on China's military capabilities. "It is likely that Beijing seeks to acquire at least 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, which is greater than the rate and volume estimated in 2020." In the previous edition of this report to Congress, published on September 1, 2020, the Pentagon estimated that China had "around 200" nuclear warheads, but estimated that this number would double over the next ten years.

With 700 nuclear warheads by 2027 and 1,000 by 2030, the projections of the American military show a very strong acceleration of Beijing's nuclear activities. "China has probably already established a nascent 'nuclear triad', that is, the ability to launch nuclear ballistic missiles from sea, land and air, according to the document. To arrive at these figures, the authors of the report relied in particular on statements by Chinese officials in official media and on satellite images showing the construction of a significant number of nuclear silos, a senior official told the press. Ministry of Defense, by presenting this document, only part of which is made public, the rest being classified as a defense secret.

The projections include submarine ballistic missiles and those launched by bombers, as well as the "mobile missile force", which makes it possible to launch missiles from trucks, according to this official having requested anonymity.

"It is very worrying for us", he admitted, adding that this acceleration "raises questions about their intentions".

"Credible military options"

Even with 1,000 nuclear warheads, the Chinese arsenal would be far from equaling that of the United States and Russia, which together possess more than 90% of the world's nuclear weapons: 5,550 for Washington and 6,255 for Moscow, according to estimates by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri). In October 2020, the Chinese Communist Party set itself the goal of modernizing the theories, organization, personnel, armaments and equipment of its army by 2027, the report recalls.

"If they are achieved, these objectives would give Beijing more credible military options vis-à-vis Taiwan," said the document. The former head of US forces in the Indo-Pacific region, Admiral Philip Davidson, told Congress in March that China could invade the island "within the next six years", ie d 'by 2027.

The passes of arms have multiplied in recent weeks between China and the United States on the fate of the territory, governed by a democratic government but considered as a Chinese province by Beijing which says it is determined to operate a "reunification", for force if necessary.

US President Joe Biden recently asserted that the United States has "a commitment" to militarily defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack.