Why is China asking its citizens to store food?

• On Monday, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce invited the population of the country to stock up on basic food.

• The ad did not evoke any particular reason, relying more on a reason for caution.

• Behind this mysterious speech, does the country risk a shortage?

A notice posted on the website of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce Monday evening invites "households to store a certain amount of basic food products in order to meet daily needs and emergencies."

The press release does not explain the reasons for such a request and does not provide further details, raising doubts and concerns.

At the same time, the ministry calls on different local authorities to facilitate agricultural production and supply flows, monitor meat and vegetable reserves and maintain price stability.

Last month, the prices of 28 food items were up 16% from the previous month, the Chinese press reported on Monday, relying on official data.

Containment as a negative impact

Is China at risk of a food shortage? Several factual elements can suggest it. First, the country has seen its food production severely impacted by the numerous lockdowns, supports Mary-Françoise Renard, an economist specializing in China, professor emeritus at Clermont-Auvergne University and author of the book 

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, a Chinese Communist Party news outlet, recalled that many families had been "trapped" in the first lockdowns without sufficient reserves of rice and vegetables.

However, China is seeing a rise in coronavirus cases, which worries it a few weeks before the Beijing Olympics.

This rise is officially incomparable with those observed in Europe: China and its 1.4 billion inhabitants would have identified only 71 new daily cases on Tuesday, after 92 cases on Monday.

If we remove the comparisons with the West, this is the highest national count since mid-September.

Cyclical consequences

To save the Games, the country is therefore taking radical decisions. At least six million people have been confined, especially in the large city of Lanzhou, 1,700 kilometers west of Beijing. "These new confinements could once again impact an already low production", raises Jean-Vincent Brisset, research director at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IRIS) and specialist in China.

Added to this is a series of natural events which seriously impacted Chinese production.

In addition to containments, the country experienced a series of floods last summer, strongly impacting these harvests.

As late as October 11, further heavy rains hit more than 200,000 hectares of farmland.

Further back in time, the swine fever epidemic between 2018 and 2019 had halved the number of Chinese pigs.

A country dependent on the international for food

"These current and economic difficulties are in addition to China's structural vulnerability in terms of food," says Jean-Vincent Brissel.

The country contains only 8% of the world's cultivable land, while it is home to 20% of the population.

As a result, China is the country that imports the most food.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture, in terms of global import in 2020, China's weight accounts for 29% of beef, 48% of pork, 60% of soybeans and 25% of barley.

This dependence offers new theories on this warning to the population, as proposed by Mary-Françoise Renard: "That China makes this kind of appeal to its population could be an anticipation of more tense diplomatic relations internationally," especially about Taiwan.

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The top three food exporters to China are the United States, Canada and Australia, three Western countries which would necessarily side with Taiwan in the event of tensions with China.

"Beijing may suspect that the situation will worsen and fears sanctions, especially on food imports", theorizes the researcher.

Towards panic movements?

Doesn't such an announcement risk creating a movement of panic among the Chinese population, traumatized by several major famines that caused tens of millions of deaths, especially during the Great Leap Forward in the 1950s? "It should be remembered that this is a small advertisement on the website of the Ministry of Commerce, and not declaimed by the president in person or by the Party itself," notes Jean-Vincent Brisset. For Mary-Françoise Renard, food stores less well than other products that have caused panic movements and self-created shortages, such as gasoline.

Nonetheless, most Western countries, on which China depends for food, see the media giving up on this Beijing announcement.

Is the country shooting itself in the foot to warn its main sellers of its fears?

“As risky as it is to officially announce it, the Chinese government did not do this by chance and measured the consequences.

If he encourages his population to stockpile, it is because he considers it even more dangerous not to say so, ”underlines Jean-Vincent Brisset.

What to sow still some concerns on this announcement.

* Edition La Découverte, 2020

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