WASHINGTON
- Tuesday's elections, which include the contest for Virginia's governor, present a major bipartisan challenge.
The outcome of the race between Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Yongkin will determine the nature of the political climate for next year's congressional elections, the results of which could end the ambitious agenda of President Joe Biden, and upon which the fate of the second half of his term will be determined.
The state was largely guaranteed to Democrats in opinion polls that took place at the beginning of this year, and this is consistent with Biden's victory in the 2020 elections by 10 points over Donald Trump, with Biden receiving 54% to 44% of the vote for Trump.
But in recent weeks, the difference between the two candidates has decreased, and some opinion polls have indicated that the difference between them has reached one or two points, after it was 10 points last April in favor of Democrat McAuliffe.
And citizens of the state bordering Washington, DC, repeat that "whenever something happens in Washington, whether there is a Republican or a Democratic administration, voters here in Virginia tend to respond to it."
Mirror for the 2022 elections
The president's party usually loses the next first election to Congress in elections for half of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate in the following year.
With President Biden's approval rating below 50%, as most polls suggest, even McAuliffe's victory by a point or two would herald the Democrats' defeat in the upcoming congressional elections, not to mention the possibility of losing the election.
Republicans only need to win 5 seats in next year's congressional elections to gain a majority in the House of Representatives, disrupting and killing Biden's agenda.
Since Trump's defeat, his exit from the White House, and his inability to tweet every 15 minutes as he used to, the "Trump factor" is no longer available to mobilize Democratic, independent, and even moderate Republican voters, and the performance of Democrats has become the goal instead of Donald Trump.
Biden's decline in popularity in recent opinion polls negatively affected the chances of electing a Democratic governor of Virginia (Reuters)
Biden's popularity factor
There was a direct correlation in the opinion polls in the percentages of McAuliffe's progress and the percentage of President Biden's popularity, and McAuliffe's progress by 7 or 8 points, when Joe Biden's popularity was above 50%, and since Biden's popularity deteriorated, McAuliffe's progress rates narrowed.
Blocking the passage of President Biden's ambitious multi-trillion dollar infrastructure agenda has driven the president's popularity down.
He also highlighted the extent of the infighting between the Democratic Party's currents, especially between the progressive members and the traditional majority.
Looking for Donald Trump
Republican candidate Yongkin has tried not to associate himself with President Trump in his campaign while not shying away from the former president's supporters.
Yongkin is focusing his campaign on winning over more moderate voters.
In one dimension, McAuliffe's strategy focuses on linking Yongkin to Trump.
At the same time, Trump has repeatedly endorsed Yongkin, and in a tweet late last Wednesday, a Trump spokesperson said that he strongly supports Yongkin's campaign, and Yongkin's campaign has not commented, but the Republican candidate confirmed earlier that he does not intend to invite President Trump to participate in any electoral event.
McAuliffe, for his part, has used a large number of Democratic Party leaders and stars to send the message that a vote for Yongkin is a vote for Trump.
Former President Barack Obama, Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden have repeated this phrase in their campaigns for McAuliffe's election.
Trump's specter looms in Virginia's governor's election on Tuesday (Reuters)
Democrats: Virginia is a mirror of America
Losing Virginia would be a bad sign for next year's midterm elections in both houses of Congress.
Democrats have not lost the Virginia governor's job since 2009. Democrats fear that McAuliffe's loss in liberal-leaning Virginia will have a ripple effect on the party, driving Democrats away from President Biden and his ambitious agenda.
The Democratic Party is experiencing a period of mutual distrust between progressives in the House and moderates in the Senate.
Because Virginia's economy is so closely tied to the federal government, the fact that Democrats have been in a mess for months trying to pass some bills has negatively impacted McAuliffe's poll numbers.
McAuliffe promotes himself that he previously ruled the state between 2013 and 2017, and succeeded in getting it out of a major financial mess, and contributed to creating more than 200,000 new jobs.
Republicans: Virginia and the Promise of Renewal
For Republicans, Virginia represents the promise of renewal, the chance to rebuild their party in a somewhat swingy state, and without having to make the hard choice of embracing or rejecting Mr. Trump outright.
Yongkin has not completely distanced himself from Donald Trump, essentially walking the Trump tightrope.
He made a number of direct appeals to Trump supporters, assuring them that he is an opponent of abortion and a supporter of the company, and at the same time, he is trying to win suburban defections from Democrats among independents.
And perhaps even among some people who consider themselves moderate democrats, by emphasizing some culture war issues, especially with regard to educational curricula and dealing with gay and heterosexuals.
If Yongkin wins, his message of bypassing Trump's rural base and closer to highly educated suburban residents will be adopted as a new model for the Republican Party to win the next congressional elections in 2022.