BEIRUT -

The political scene in Lebanon is becoming increasingly tense, at a time when the authorities have not taken practical measures after Saudi Arabia's decisions against Lebanon, which amounted to a diplomatic, political and economic rupture. The UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait followed suit, following the statements of the Lebanese Minister of Information, George Qardahi, about the Yemen war and his support for the Houthis.

And the last hours have recorded notable developments in the course of the crisis:

  • Lebanon's Foreign Minister, Abdullah Bou Habib, confirms the survival of Najib Mikati's government with international support, and announces the end of the ministerial cell to deal with the crisis with Saudi Arabia, and describes the latter's performance as "cruelty."

  • Qardahi confirms that he does not intend to resign.

  • Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan declares that his country's dealings with the Mikati government are fruitless, given the hegemony of Hezbollah.

  • Maronite Patriarch Bechara Al-Rahi calls on the presidents of the republic and the government to take decisive steps to defuse the crisis with the Gulf states.

The roots of the crisis

It is known in Beirut that Qardahi's statements are a spark that ignited an accumulation of turmoil in Lebanese-Saudi relations, and that bridging the rift requires a radical treatment of the crisis, and analysts link it to different time tracks.

The writer and political analyst Hussein Ayoub finds that the roots of the Saudi-Lebanese crisis go back to 2005, since the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, and it is not separated from Syria. July 2006, when the Saudi statement described what Hezbollah had done as an "adventurous".

Subsequently, attempts were made to arrange the Lebanese-Saudi and Syrian-Saudi relations, until an agreement was reached between Saudi Arabia and Syria in 2009, which provided a Syrian-Saudi umbrella for the Lebanese-Gulf relations, after which Saad Hariri headed the first government.

With the fall of the Hariri government in 2011 due to the resignation of Hezbollah ministers and its allies, it became clear, according to Ayoub’s hadith, that the phrase “the matter is mine” no longer belongs to Syria, but to Iran, and that “the government fell by an Iranian decision, and after that Hezbollah adhered to appointing Najib Mikati as prime minister, in contrast Because of the Saudi-Syrian desire for Hariri’s return, Saudi-Syrian relations deteriorated.”

Political writer Khaldoun Al-Sharif continues the timeline, considering that the presidential settlement that brought Michel Aoun to the presidency in 2016, in agreement with Hariri, was a watershed in the deterioration of Saudi-Lebanese relations.

At the time, in his opinion, Hariri, along with Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, did not succeed in attracting Aoun to the center in exchange for not sticking with Hezbollah.

And in 2017, when Hariri submitted his resignation from Riyadh, some put him on a personal side, according to Al-Sharif, and “it later became clear that there is a political side, and the kingdom has not cooperated with any government after 2017, and Hariri stuck to his oath with Gibran Bassil (Hezbollah’s first Christian ally and Aoun’s son-in-law). ) to contest the parliamentary elections on his side.

He told Al Jazeera Net that Saudi Arabia today is thinking in a different way.

Either a comprehensive boycott, or a return to Lebanon with a new book of conditions.

Accordingly, "the government, for the first time since the founding of Lebanon, is involved in such a crisis with Gulf countries, importing a third of what it produces."

The arrival of this tense moment, according to Hussein Ayoub, expresses a Saudi-Iranian crisis, which I translated in Lebanon;

And the problem of the Saudis - in his opinion - with Hezbollah, as a product of the crisis of Saudi-Iranian relations.

He told Al Jazeera Net that Saudi Arabia's problem is also that it did not find a Lebanese force ready to confront Hezbollah.

The irony, from Ayoub’s point of view, is that with the arrangement of Saudi-Iranian relations within a path that has not faltered, things deteriorate in Lebanon, which reflects “a Saudi desire to arrange the relationship with Iran in the future, independent of the Lebanese file, and that Lebanon is not on the agenda of Riyadh-Tehran. ".


escalation horizon

The Lebanese foreign minister talks about American and French efforts to protect the Mikati government from falling, and to ease the tension between Riyadh and Beirut.

Here, the writer and political analyst Rosana Boumansef considers that the Lebanese authorities have not dealt with the crisis, starting with describing it as a "problem", and shyly disavowing Qardahi's statements, while it is a major crisis whose chapters are unfolding.

It is surprising that Mikati remains at the Climate Summit at a time when his government is mired in a serious crisis, and, in her opinion, the meetings in London will not work, and his government is threatening to explode.

She told Al Jazeera Net that Aoun bears responsibility for his failure to communicate with Arab countries to mediate with Riyadh.

However, you expect that this will be the ceiling of Saudi procedures, despite their severity, because the ball is in the court of Lebanon and the presidency of the Republic and the government.

Boumansef does not rely much on American and French mediation, because the Saudi approach is different, and sees that Saudi Arabia, after the formation of the Mikati government, was waiting for actions it did not touch.

Hussein Ayoub finds that nothing is ahead of Saudi Arabia over the title of Yemen, and "if there is a Saudi-Iranian agreement that includes Yemen, it may withdraw to Lebanon."

Otherwise, "Riyadh will not make concessions that benefit the parties fighting against it."

It is expected that Saudi Arabia will continue its escalating trend towards Lebanon in several aspects, economically, politically and procedurally, according to the developments of the scene that is turning for the worse.

For his part, Khaldoun Al-Sharif considers that the horizon of Saudi measures is clear in terms of restoring balance to Lebanon, in line with what the Mikati government approved in 2011 on the policy of "disassociation from itself", which was never adhered to.

He said that Lebanon needs an understanding that makes it not aligned with one axis against another, "otherwise, a rupture with Saudi Arabia and others is taking place."

Regarding America and France, Al-Sharif made it clear that they want the government to stay away from its form and quality. He considers that Washington's failure to mediate between Riyadh and Beirut means that France will not succeed in what the Americans were unable to accomplish.

government scenarios

This resistance casts its shadow on the Mikati government, which has not met since it suspended its session after the position of the ministers of Hezbollah and the Amal movement towards the judicial investigator regarding the explosion of the port of Beirut, Tariq Al-Bitar, and they are calling for his dismissal, then the Tayouneh events, and now the crisis with Saudi Arabia.

Accordingly, Boumansef considers that the government is almost crippled, and "reforms should have been achieved before entering the elections stage, unless there were efforts to disrupt it."

Even if Qardahi's resignation is no longer important, the analyst states that his survival is supported by Hezbollah, which reveals his intention to escalate, and refused to make a procedural concession, and Qardahi's survival became associated with the survival of the party's ministers.

Hussein Ayoub states that the speech of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah following the Tayouneh events, accused Saudi Arabia of a negative role in Lebanon, which reflected a tense atmosphere, and the party, in his opinion, seeks to benefit as long as its battle with Saudi Arabia is exposed.

In Ayoub's opinion, Mikati's government is steadfast by a French-American decision.

But "a caretaker government, with or without the Qardahi crisis, and with or without resignation, will remain so until the end of the term, and it is unable to reconcile at the present time."

Khaldoun al-Sharif said that Mikati's government was shattered while it was in a glass-neck, either suffocating or breathing.

In order to breathe - according to his expression - Mikati must put his government's options on the table, and ask: Do you want Arab relations or bear their severance?

To take a firm position on the relationship with the Kingdom, and "otherwise things will deteriorate further."

On the other hand, Boumansef proposes a series of measures that Lebanon can take quickly:

  • The government's initiative to sign a "code of conduct" and to obligate the parties to it in dealing with Arab countries, and to activate the policy of disassociation.

  • Lebanon goes with a high-ranking official delegation to the Kingdom, or a friendly Arab country, and mediates the Arab League instead of the mediation option of France and America, as the West should not mediate to pressure towards a settlement between two Arab countries.

  • Negotiating a set of problems, perhaps by going to a framework similar to the Doha Agreement 2008.

She added that regional considerations in terms of Iran's failure to return to the nuclear agreement with Washington, and its refusal to discuss its regional influence and ballistic missiles, in return for the Iranian-Saudi dialogue's lack of progress, along with the Yemen file, put Lebanon at the center of the regional storm.