To get rid of sanctions and find strategic allies
Iran turns east to neutralize Western efforts to isolate it
Raisi criticized Rouhani as dependent on the West.
IPA
The 18th summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization approved Iran's accession to the organization.
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Iran's new president, Ebrahim Raisi, skipped the United Nations General Assembly meetings in New York last month and decided that his first foreign visit would be to the Tajik capital, Dushanbe, to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit of the Eurasian Political, Economic and Security Partnership.
This choice was objective as well as symbolic.
On September 17, 14 years after Tehran submitted an application to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, it was finally accepted.
Given that it is facing harsh US sanctions, in addition to the fact that the West treats it as a pariah state, Iran is looking to get out of this impasse, and it believes that Asian powers are growing at Washington's expense, and that China and Russia do not share the United States' interest in containing Iran and strangling its economy, but rather On the contrary, they may be willing to accept Iran to advance their interests in the Middle East.
In this context, Iran's acceptance of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which could take two years to complete, is a victory for the Iranian press, and it strengthens Tehran's cooperative relationship with China and Russia, in addition to the other member states of India, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Pakistan. .
According to the Iranian Tasnim news agency, which is close to Iran's Revolutionary Guards, Tehran's full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization could neutralize the efforts of Western countries to isolate Iran by strengthening its power and consolidating its position in West Asia.
My boss will build on this success.
feeling frustrated
Iranians of all stripes are frustrated by the failed agreement restricting their nuclear program, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which the administration of former President Donald Trump withdrew from in 2018, three years after it was signed.
At a time when negotiations with the administration of current President Joe Biden have reached a dead end, China in particular can provide support for the negotiations, or perhaps alternative options through its initiative known as the "Belt and Road Initiative" in addition to direct investments in Iran, if it is ready to confront with the United States.
doubts
Iranian policymakers suspect that the JCPOA was not about whether Iran's nuclear program was peaceful or otherwise, but rather that the United States and its allies were implementing a containment strategy for Iran with the aim of curbing Iran's regional hegemony in any way possible.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said during his last meeting with outgoing President Hassan Rouhani last July: The next administration in Tehran must realize that trusting the West is a failure.
"They try to offend us whenever they can," he added.
Accordingly, my president and his administration are now pursuing a policy that the Iranians say is the policy of “looking to the East,” and they considered Hassan Rouhani’s policy aimed at reviving the joint action agreement as a policy of “looking to the West.”
Upon his return from Tajikistan, Raisi sharply criticized Rouhani, accusing him of being dependent on the West.
It is not necessary for the current Iranian administration to abandon the nuclear negotiations, but it believes that even if the negotiations are completed to the end, the sanctions imposed on Iran will not be lifted.
It is known that many officials, such as Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Ali Baghrani, make statements against the JCPOA, and they see sanctions as the means used by the United States to curb Iran's nuclear and missile programs, and to contain Tehran's growing influence in the Middle East, and accordingly, the only solution for Iran Is to find strong strategic allies like China and Russia, and at least Tehran hopes to get the support of Russia and China during the nuclear negotiations.
Iran's orientation towards the East is more profound than it appears at first glance. Historically, Iran has been economically linked to the West and dependent on it since the days of the Shah's rule, when Tehran was an ally of the United States, and this situation continued in the post-revolution period despite the strong enmity between Iran and the United States. .
European oil companies such as Total continued to enjoy the lion's share in developing Iranian gas fields, but due to the sanctions imposed by the United States, European companies left Iran and Chinese companies entered their place.
Belt and Road Initiative
Iran is now hoping to join China's Belt and Road Initiative, the massive "21st Century Silk Road" project linking South Asia with Europe.
Raisi's management is seeking to attract Chinese investment by joining this huge project.
Chinese investments can help mitigate the impact of sanctions on Iran with the aim of improving the economy.
In addition, the Iranians hope to turn their geopolitical power into a reality, by joining the corridors of the Belt and Road.
Iran sees itself as a bridge between East and West and between North and South Asia.
Iran expects to get many benefits by joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and it believes first that by joining the largest regional organization in the world in terms of geographical and demographic scope, it can neutralize the efforts of the United States to isolate it.
Second, the full membership of this organization could establish a new role for Iran in the security system of the Central and South Asian region, as an influential player that respects pluralism in the region and beyond.
This is especially important in the wake of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Thirdly, Iran hopes to enhance its foreign trade with the countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Fourth, membership in this organization could provide Iran with an opportunity to enhance defense cooperation with China and Russia and expand its defense perimeter further to the east. When Iran becomes a full member of the organization, Iran will participate in the organization's joint military exercises and strengthen its security cooperation with the member states of the organization to combat terrorism in the region. Ultimately, Iran's membership in such a security-oriented organization could encourage Russia and China to sell Iran more advanced weapons.
To obtain such benefits from China, Iran would of course need to offer something in return, which could be in the form of diplomatic support;
Therefore, as soon as he took power in Tehran, Raisi indicated that Iran would support China in international disputes, and condemned in a phone call to him with Chinese President Xi Jinping the politicization of studies related to the origin of the Corona virus, describing it as an attempt to isolate Beijing.
He declared his full support for the one-China policy and accused the United States of interfering in China's internal affairs.
Although there appears to be a broad consensus among Iran's new officials on the necessity of heading east, it is not clear whether this approach will solve the country's most pressing challenges.
Although Iranian policymakers believe that the future world order will eventually be dominated by Asia, this futuristic vision remains ambiguous.
Meanwhile, US sanctions remain a formidable obstacle to foreign companies hoping to invest in Iran, and continuing political disputes between the United States and its allies have made them huge obstacles to expanding trade relations with Iran's eastern neighbors.
It is also possible, and probably most likely, that China and Russia see their interests in the Middle East differently from what Iran does, and that Iranian ambitions are not at the top of their priorities.
• Iran has historically been economically linked to and dependent on the West since the days of the Shah's rule, when Tehran was an ally of the United States, and this situation continued in the post-revolutionary period despite the strong enmity between Iran and the United States.
• Iran expects to obtain many benefits from joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and it believes that by joining the largest regional organization in the world in terms of geographical and demographic scope, it can neutralize the efforts of the United States to isolate it.
Zakia Yazdanshinaz is a researcher at the Middle East Center for Strategic Studies
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