(Question from East and West) Wu Hao: Uncertainty increases, how to solve the knot of Northeast Asia?

  China News Service, Changchun, October 30th, title: Uncertainty increases, how to solve the knot in Northeast Asia?

——Interview with Wu Hao, Dean of the Northeast Asia Research Institute of Jilin University

  China News Agency reporter Li Yanguo

  Northeast Asia is one of the most dynamic regions for global economic development, and it is also one of the regions with a more complex global security situation. Changes in its situation will affect the entire Asia-Pacific region and affect the entire world.

To build an environment of "harmony, mutual trust, unity, and stability" in Northeast Asia is not only an urgent need for the development of countries in the region, but also an important cornerstone of global governance.

  However, the realization of this vision has encountered many difficulties.

In the post-epidemic era, the instability and uncertainties of global development continue to increase. How can Northeast Asia crack this knot?

In this regard, Wu Hao, Dean of the Northeast Asia Research Institute of Jilin University, recently accepted an exclusive interview with China News Service on "Questions about East and West".

Data map: The construction of the imported goods processing base project in Hunchun City, Jilin Province is in full swing.

Photo by Xue Dongdong

The summary of the interview record is as follows:

China News Service: What are the problems facing peace and development in Northeast Asia?

What are the historical and practical reasons for these problems?

Wu Hao: At

present, seeking peace and development are still fundamental issues that need to be resolved globally.

The problems facing peace and development in Northeast Asia are very prominent.

  From the perspective of development, Northeast Asia includes countries belonging to the most developed economies, emerging economies, and developing countries with very difficult economies.

The uneven and insufficient development of Northeast Asia is very prominent, and achieving common development is still a major issue facing Northeast Asia.

  From the perspective of peace, the problems in Northeast Asia are more prominent. The complex history and actual contradictions are intertwined, and regional peace still faces serious threats.

For example, there are unresolved disputes over territorial, territorial waters, or maritime rights and interests among some countries in Northeast Asia. Some countries have sharp differences on historical issues. The North Korean nuclear issue and other outstanding security issues that affect the regional situation have long been difficult to fundamentally resolve.

  The main cause of the development problems facing Northeast Asia is the issue of peace, that is, because the issue of peace has always been difficult to effectively solve, it has affected the choice of development strategies of some countries and the in-depth development of regional cooperation.

  From a historical perspective, the Cold War structure formed after World War II ended, but its influence in Northeast Asia has not been eliminated.

The US-Japan alliance and the US-South Korea alliance still exist and continue to strengthen, and ideological differences are still a major issue affecting regional security.

In addition, Northeast Asia is one of the few regions in the world where the history of World War II and before has not been fundamentally liquidated. The countries that carried out colonial aggression did not seriously reflect on the history, and therefore could not obtain the full understanding of other countries.

  In recent years, some new contradictions affecting regional peace have also emerged in Northeast Asia.

The most prominent is that the United States and other countries have not yet fully adapted to China’s peaceful rise, or even accept the relative decline of their own strength and the collective rise of emerging economies such as China. They have strengthened alliance building in various ways to build a circle of China. , Actively promote various decoupling strategies and interfere in China's internal affairs.

This will inevitably become the most prominent potential risk affecting the peace of Northeast Asia.

Data map: The picture shows that 312 transit Japanese commercial vehicles were reloaded and sent to Kazakhstan at the automobile terminal in Dalian area of ​​Liaoning Free Trade Zone.

Photo by Gai Shengbin

China News Agency reporter: In the first half of this year, the trade volume between China and the other five countries in Northeast Asia was approximately US$417.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26%.

In the context of increasing downward pressure on the world economy, how do you view this achievement?

Wu Hao:

In the context of the global spread of the new crown epidemic, the world economy has been severely impacted, and international trade has also been severely affected. However, China's foreign trade volume has continued to grow, especially the growth rate of trade with Northeast Asian countries.

The primary reason is that the economic and trade relations between countries in Northeast Asia are very close, and interdependent and indivisible regional production networks have been formed. China's position in the production networks in Northeast Asia is becoming more and more important.

At present, the largest trading partners of the other five countries in Northeast Asia are all China.

China quickly controlled the epidemic, achieved rapid economic development, and made important contributions to regional and global economic growth.

  Of course, we also need to see that the trade relationship is two-way.

In the process of China's rapid economic development and rapid expansion of the domestic market, other countries have become more and more dependent on the Chinese market. In turn, China's economic growth has become more and more deeply integrated into the world economy.

As one of the countries with the most complete global industrial system, China has become an indispensable link in the global value chain and industrial chain. As long as China persists in opening up to the outside world, the decoupling strategy advocated by some countries will not succeed.

China cannot develop without the world, and the world is increasingly inseparable from China.

China News Agency reporter: What challenges and opportunities will the pandemic of the century and the changes in a century bring further cooperation among countries in the region?

Wu Hao:

From the perspective of challenges, the most prominent problem is that the global order is being severely impacted, which will inevitably have an adverse impact on the economic development of East Asia, especially Northeast Asia, and add new obstacles to regional cooperation in Northeast Asia.

For example, affected by issues such as lack of political mutual trust and continuous differences in historical understanding, the China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement negotiations have not made substantial progress, and regional cooperation in the Greater Tumen region is also struggling.

Therefore, it is difficult to make breakthroughs in Northeast Asia regional cooperation in a short period of time.

  Of course, regional cooperation in Northeast Asia also faces some new opportunities.

Affected by the great changes in the past century and the impact of the epidemic, anti-globalization or anti-globalization waves continue to emerge, and the international economic order has been severely damaged.

This grim reality has made East Asian countries, especially Northeast Asian countries increasingly aware of the importance of promoting regional cooperation and stabilizing regional political and economic order.

It is in this context that the RCEP negotiations finally reached an agreement at the end of 2020.

In a certain sense, RCEP is the product of East Asian countries' unanimous opposition to anti-globalization and the maintenance of the principles of multilateralism.

Therefore, countries in the region need to think about opportunities and seek opportunities when they encounter them, and explore and cooperate with relevant countries to cope with global shocks, so as to continuously deepen regional cooperation.

Data map: busy port operation scene.

Photo courtesy of Yantai Port

China News Agency reporter: Mutual trust and security are important foundations for the further development of countries in Northeast Asia. In what ways do you think China can promote it?

Wu Hao:

At present, peace and stability in Northeast Asia are facing a series of major challenges, but we should not be overly pessimistic about the situation in Northeast Asia.

It should be said that the current situation is the most severe since the end of the Cold War, but it is still much more easing than it was during the Cold War.

The overall situation in Northeast Asia is controllable, communication channels between countries are unblocked, and emergency management and control mechanisms at all levels have also been established.

Therefore, it is unlikely that serious conflicts will break out in the short term.

  Of course, while historical contradictions and differences have not been resolved, some negative factors are constantly fermenting and accumulating.

In particular, the United States has continuously strengthened its "Indo-Pacific strategy" and other measures to contain China, while some countries in the region have been dancing with the wind, constantly hyping the "China threat theory", strengthening military capabilities, and harming China's national security interests.

  Under this severe situation, it is impossible to completely eliminate all kinds of unstable factors in a short period of time, but it can still make a difference in maintaining regional peace and stability.

  First, we should unite all active forces to work for regional peace and stability.

In this regard, China and Russia should strengthen cooperation and communication, continue to deepen the comprehensive strategic partnership of cooperation between China and Russia in the new era, jointly play the role of peace ballast in Northeast Asia, and reduce the possibility of strategic misjudgment by various forces that destabilize the region.

  Secondly, do a good job in the external propaganda work of China's internal affairs and diplomacy in the new era, tell the Chinese story well, and strive for more understanding and support.

With the rapid development of China and the continuous improvement of its international image, we should actively strengthen policy interpretation, strengthen policy dialogue with all countries in the world, and enhance mutual understanding among all parties.

  Finally, strive to carry out exchanges and cooperation in various fields, and give full play to the positive role of local diplomacy, non-governmental diplomacy, and 1.5-track diplomacy in maintaining peace in Northeast Asia.

People-to-people bonds are the cornerstone of friendly relations between nations. In times of difficult official relations, local exchanges and non-governmental diplomacy should be encouraged.

  In short, we should keep a clear strategic mind and fully understand the complexity and severity of the situation. At the same time, we should also see the positive factors and forces in maintaining regional peace, do more work in promoting regional peace and stability, and consider and take into account the long-term interests. Plan measures to maintain peace in Northeast Asia.

(over)

  About the interviewee:

  Wu Hao, currently the dean of the Northeast Asian Research Institute of Jilin University, the dean of the Northeast Asian College of Jilin University, the deputy director of the Northeast Asian Research Center of Jilin University, the key research base of humanities and social sciences of the Ministry of Education, the editor-in-chief of "Northeast Asia Forum", professor of economics, Kuang Yaming Scholar of Jilin University.

He has long been engaged in scientific research in Northeast Asia regional economic theory and policy, Northeast Asia regional economy, Northeast China economy and other fields. He has published more than 90 academic papers and monographs in newspapers such as "Seeking Truth", "Xinhua Digest", "Guangming Daily", etc. Ministry of Education, presided over more than 40 major projects of the National Social Science Fund Project, the Key Research Base of Humanities and Social Sciences of the Ministry of Education, and more than 40 major commissioned projects of the party and government departments. Academic exchange.