Wide international gaps on commitments to reduce emissions
The world's governments are facing a climate catastrophe that is difficult to deal with
Developing countries will be hardest hit by the climate catastrophe.
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Demonstrators are calling for immediate action to curb climate change.
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We are only a few days away from the climate summit in Scotland, and the 25,000 delegates, including senior officials from more than 100 countries, are expected to attend the UN sessions and side events.
Significant gaps remain around commitments to cut emissions, with many governments still off track to meet past pledges to stop reliance on fossil fuels, let alone meet changing demands today.
Climate activists and scientists warn that the world's major economies and companies must take more serious steps to curb global warming.
The administration of US President Joe Biden made clear the urgency last week, when it released a number of reports from various agencies on the impact of climate change, and the new threats it poses to national security.
A national intelligence report made three "key points" about how climate change is expected to affect the calculations of US policymakers over the next two decades.
First, the report predicted that geopolitical tensions would increase as countries chart their way to greener economies and compete for new technologies and resources.
The intelligence report concluded that “the discussion will focus on who bears greater responsibility for action and payment, and how quickly.
Countries will compete to control the resources and new technologies needed to transition to clean energy.”
Second, the report warned that the number of “cross-border geopolitical flashpoints” would increase due to climate change.
The report highlighted the Arctic, as one of the areas likely to witness major international conflict as its ice caps continue to melt, as well as new battles forming over water, and waves of climate migrants being forced to leave their homes.
Third, the authors of the report argue that “the intensified effects of climate change will be most severe in developing countries, which we estimate are also the least able to adapt to such changes.”
This, in turn, would likely mean additional commitments from US diplomatic, economic, and military resources in the coming years.
None of these conclusions should be surprising, but they come after four years of the presidency of Donald Trump, which has denied climate variability and actively sought to suppress and discredit climate assessments of federal agencies.
Now, the Biden administration is trying to signal at home and abroad how seriously the United States takes the challenges posed by global warming.
“Climate change is changing the strategic landscape, shaping the security environment, and posing complex threats to the United States and countries around the world,” US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in a statement accompanying the Pentagon report. The Department of Defense understands the ways in which climate change affects missions, plans, and capabilities.”
big displacement
The New York Times noted that "the Department of Homeland Security, which includes the US Coast Guard, has warned that as the ice in the Arctic Ocean melts, competition for fish, minerals and other resources will increase."
It comes amid warnings that "tens of millions of people could be displaced by 2050 due to climate change, including up to 143 million people in South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America".
Clarity of warnings
Although these warnings are clear, there is less certainty about the scope of the work.
Biden and his allies are struggling to advance the legislation needed for the United States to meet the administration's stated commitments to cut emissions.
Before the Glasgow summit, many governments had made pledges to achieve the goal of "zero" greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century or a few years after.
However, few have shown clear roadmaps for how to do this, while continuing to invest in expanding fossil fuels.
This has been the case with Australia, which is expected to announce, soon, a "zero emissions" target pledge, after a long delay.
And oil-producing Saudi Arabia announced, a few days ago, its intention to reach “zero emissions” by 2060. The Saudi economy is still heavily dependent on fossil fuel revenues, despite the extensive campaign led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, to diversify Its trade away from fossil fuel production.
charcoal addiction
“Although the developed world has historically been responsible for most greenhouse gas emissions, the ability to avoid further warming will depend to a large extent on what happens in countries where emissions are still rising,” my colleague Christian Shepherd wrote. One worst-case scenario is that most developing countries along China's Belt and Road Initiative could account for two-thirds of global emissions by 2050.
As part of its climate efforts, Beijing has pledged to stop building coal projects abroad. But this comes with its own effects. “The danger with China’s announcement is that if coal plants are not funded, countries may turn to gas,” said Christine Shearer, director of the coal program at Global Energy Monitor. It is also compatible with the Paris Climate Agreement. We are talking about countries that are still building energy systems. They ask: “If we want to go the way of generating energy from the sun and wind, what are the examples?” There are no examples.
And it's not just about the developing world. My colleagues, in Germany, have studied how Europe's largest economy and manufacturer is still unable to break its addiction to coal.
In this, Bao Yuewei, professor of the economics of sustainable energy transition at the European University of Flensburg, says: “We want to be the first in the field of climate.
We're selling ourselves that way," he added, "but for some very easy and simple things, we're not willing to put up with the sacrifice, basically."
Ishan Tharoor ■ Columnist covering international and geopolitical affairs
• Although the developed world has historically been responsible for most greenhouse gas emissions, the ability to avoid further warming will largely depend on what happens in countries where emissions are still rising.
25,000 people from more than 100 countries will attend the Climate Conference in Scotland.
Prior to the Glasgow summit, many governments had made pledges to achieve the goal of "zero" greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century or a few years after. However, few have shown clear roadmaps for how to do this, while continuing to invest in expanding fossil fuels.
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