How does Egypt read the developments of the crisis in Sudan?

 Cairo -

Despite the escalation of political and security tensions in Sudan, the Egyptian reaction was - according to observers - at the official level "lukewarm", and this raised questions about the Egyptian reading of the developments of the current crisis with the southern neighbor, which represents a strategic depth, and is intertwined with it in vital and fateful files, on the Similar to the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam crisis.

And yesterday, Monday, the head of the Sovereign Council in Sudan, Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, announced - within exceptional decisions - the imposition of a state of emergency, the dissolution of the Sovereignty Council, which was overseeing the transition to civilian rule, as well as the dissolution of the Council of Ministers, before he later announced that Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdouk is under house arrest. In the presidential palace.

These rapid developments in Sudan were met by Cairo with a brief statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in which it announced its close follow-up of the events and the importance of achieving security and stability for the Sudanese people and preserving their capabilities, and calling on all parties to give priority to the interest and national consensus.

There is an important indication regarding Cairo’s handling of the Sudanese events, which is that the military component has been on good terms with Cairo, since the overthrow of the ousted President Omar al-Bashir’s rule in 2019, unlike the government of Abdullah Hamdok, which had different orientations in dealing with common files, Especially with Ethiopia.

In light of the historical constants, geopolitics and civilizational ties between the two countries, the Egyptian role remains important in resolving the Sudanese crisis, after the horizon between the internal components was blocked, according to analysts and experts that Al Jazeera Net spoke to.

Analysts also agreed that the current events, and the sharp tensions tainted by them between the civil and military components, will not have a fundamental impact on relations with Cairo, but fears of instability remain casting a shadow over Egypt, whether through the influx of refugees or illegal immigration or the occurrence of tension that creates an environment An incubator of terrorism.

waiting status

Pointing to the lack of clarity in the official Egyptian position regarding the developments in the situation in Sudan, the academic and political analyst Khairy Omar said that Cairo supports not being drawn into the disintegration of the Sudanese authority and state, and may be waiting for the outcome of the situation.

Omar ruled out Egypt's siding with one party at the expense of another, in the current Sudanese crisis;

In light of its previous position of maintaining a single distance from the civilian and military components after the overthrow of Al-Bashir.

Regarding the repercussions of the current Sudanese tensions, the Egyptian academic expected that they would not affect Cairo and stressed that they would not be substantial, pointing out at the same time that the military component’s control of the Sudanese situation represents a rapprochement with Egyptian interests and does not threaten them.

He explained that the military component in Sudan was in agreement from the beginning with Cairo’s movements in more than one file, especially the Renaissance Dam crisis, noting that the military component was supporting rapprochement with Egypt in the file of the dam, unlike the Hamdok government, which had tendencies towards Africa and Ethiopia more from it to Egypt.

Regarding the Egyptian mediation scenarios to bring the views of the parties in Sudan closer, the Egyptian academic saw that Cairo is watching the events, and as long as the Egyptian political leadership has not announced anything of the kind, it is not possible to go into certain interpretations, such as mediation.

National Security

On the other hand, the expert in African affairs and Egyptian national security, Major General Mohamed Abdel Wahed, stressed the direct impact of the current Sudanese events on his country, and said that Egypt and Sudan represent each other's strategic depth, based on historical constants, geopolitics, civilizational ties, and common neighborhoods and borders.

He cited in this regard the Sudanese community in Egypt, estimated at 5 million, noting that most of them came to Egypt as a result of previous political events.

He warned of the repercussions of instability in Sudan, which directly affects Egypt, whether through the flow of refugees, illegal immigration and the occurrence of terrorist operations, noting that any tension creates an incubating environment for terrorism that moves to neighboring countries, as happened in Libya before.

He said that the eastern regions of Sudan represented a corridor for terrorist operations, illegal immigration or organized crime, east to the Sinai Peninsula (northeast of Egypt) or north to Europe.

In light of these concerns, the security expert stressed that his country is keen on the stability of Sudan, and is closely monitoring the current events, as they have a direct impact on the Egyptian national security.

Sudanese took to the streets to protest the coup (Anatolia)

Correct path

Regarding the Egyptian position on the Sudanese events, Abdel Wahed explained that each party from Cairo and Khartoum is strengthening the other in light of the challenges that are almost common in all fields.

He considered that the control of the military in Sudan represents a movement to correct the political path, citing the speech of Lieutenant-General Al-Burhan in his statement, in which he referred to the state of chaos in the Sudanese street, and the need to take measures to maintain security and stability, and to consider the army a protector of the revolution in light of the current divisions, he said.

Abdel Wahed expected that things would be straightened out after the recent procedures in Sudan, even if they were a bitter medicine, according to his description, stressing that Cairo does not take sides at the expense of another, as it is unacceptable in foreign policy towards neighboring countries, especially Sudan, but rather is keen to stand in an area mediate between all parties.

He explained that Egypt was in the position of mediator between the government and the opposition during Al-Bashir's rule, and during the period of the revolutionary movement it was in a middle position between the military and civilian components.

Regarding Cairo’s role in mediating between the parties in the next stage, the security expert said that Egypt welcomes this, and the political leadership is keen to play this role, and usually notes its willingness to provide all facilities to help and maintain security and stability in Sudan.

With regard to the repercussions of the Sudanese crisis on the file of the Renaissance Dam, Abdel Wahed explained that Egypt is strengthening Sudan and wants it to have an army and a strong state;

To stand together in the face of Ethiopian intransigence and take common positions to reach a binding legal agreement.

He went on to say that the prospects for bilateral cooperation between Cairo and Khartoum in Africa are not linked to Addis Ababa only, but also to all the Nile Basin countries, as the two countries had previously taken a unified position on some of the provisions of the Framework Agreement for the Nile Basin countries.

What is currently happening in Sudan, Iraq, Lebanon and other Arab countries, including countries that seem calm on the surface, confirms beyond any doubt that in the depths of all Arab peoples a volcano is boiling, because they will not accept submission to the status quo forever, and that this volcano He began again approaching the moment of the explosion

— Hassan Nafaa (@hassanafaa) October 25, 2021

constant need

Slightly in agreement with the previous proposition, former Egyptian diplomat Farghali Taha, former assistant foreign minister, confirmed that Egypt has not and will not turn a blind eye to any event in Sudan, as it is not only a geographic neighboring country, but is one of the most influential neighbors in the Egyptian national security in terms of its location and its participation in course of the Nile River.

Taha stressed that everything that happened and happens in Sudan affects and is affected by Egypt, calling on the Egyptian authorities to monitor what is happening in Sudan and sometimes intervene in it in the interest of the stability of the two countries.

Regarding the issues raised about the Egyptian position on the crisis, Taha indicated that there are parties in Sudan that welcome and demand Egypt’s intervention in exchange for the rejection of other parties, due to subjective considerations on both sides.

The former diplomat stressed that the two countries, in all cases, "are in a relationship of constant need and one destiny, and neither of them has the luxury of abandoning or spoiling them."

As for the issue of the Renaissance Dam in light of Sudanese internal tensions, its negative impact on the two countries is known - according to Taha - stressing the need for joint coordination out of fate and need.

In this regard, he pointed out that when Sudanese policy at some stages tried to overlook Ethiopia's policies, or even be neutral, it soon realized the difficulty of that, but rather found its error and negative aspects of Sudan's interests, according to him.

On the obstacles to the Sudanese crisis and Egypt’s role in calming the situation, Taha explained that the danger in the current Sudanese crisis lies in the multiplicity of parties involved in it, positively or negatively, and therefore the internal division is more dangerous than facing any external problem.