Guardian article: The seeds of Sudan's coup were sown right after Al-Bashir's fall

In his analysis of the ongoing coup in Sudan, Peter Beaumont argues in an article for the British Guardian newspaper that in 2019, following the fall of the “tyrannical leader” Omar al-Bashir who himself seized power in a military-backed coup in 1989, the possibility of defections was In the nascent political settlement is already clear.

Beaumont stated that while representatives of the country's rebel movements sent delegations to public protests in Khartoum, and students discussed the possibilities of democracy in small cafes set up on sidewalks outside universities, the army - which removed its support from Bashir - was watching its soldiers who were flocking to points inspection.

The result of 8 months of escalating street protests sparked by the increase in the cost of living, including the lifting of wheat subsidies, was that Sudan's revolution had been resolved in a "chaotic settlement", with the military and civilians eventually agreeing that the democratic transition would be overseen by a transitional body and council. Sovereign includes generals and civilian politicians overseeing the operation.

But the reality, as the author added, is that many of Sudan's most pressing contests for power, between political parties, between the army, militias, and local rebel groups, and between those who favored a more Islamist vision of the state, have not come to light.

What was going to happen in the intervening period was a long-running competition between the various Sudanese actors that culminated in recent weeks and months, including an attempted coup just a month ago, as competing interests in favor of the military and pro-democracy alike took to the streets.

On the SAF side represented by prominent General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who has now moved to arrest civilian cabinet figures, including Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, there has been growing discontent with the military's perceived weakening of the transition process.

For civilian political leaders, the previous failed coup attempt last September - which was blamed on military personnel and former Bashir loyalists - confirmed the danger from the army, with Hamdok saying that the incident emphasized "the need to reform the security and military apparatus."

Among those who warned of the potential for an expansion of violence in light of the escalating crisis, the director of the Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, Theodore Murphy, who indicated that the army acted for fear of weakening it, and that its movement was supported by external countries.

Since the coup attempt, the pro-democracy and pro-army factions have entered into disputes with the pro-army group and its allies, who launched a sit-in last week to demand a return to military rule.

The writer mentioned that among those who warned of the possibility of an expansion of violence in light of the escalating crisis, the director of the Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, Theodore Murphy, who indicated that the army acted for fear of weakening it, and that its movement was supported by external countries.

"Reliable reports indicate that Egypt and the UAE support the general direction of the Sudanese armed forces," he said.

He added, "The demonstrations have started, and clashes are expected between supporters of the civilian side and others who support the Sudanese armed forces and some armed movements."

"It is very clear that the pro-civilian protest movement is still large in number, and that it is convinced that despite the assurances of the Sudanese armed forces, what is happening is an actual coup," Murphy added.

Beaumont concluded his analysis with a commentary by the Economist's Africa Analyst on the opinion that the army may have misjudged Sudanese public opinion by saying, "While recent developments highlight a major setback for the country and the fragility of the peace, there is little that can be done." For the army to get it by reneging on the power-sharing deal.”

"International partners will be quick to withdraw support if the military takes over. We expect more unrest in the coming weeks as pro-democracy supporters of civilian rule take to the streets and military attempts to crush the revolution," she added.