Ankara on Monday, October 25, gave up declaring "persona non grata" ten Western ambassadors whose departure it had ordered, preventing its country from finding itself diplomatically isolated and economically weakened.

The 10 ambassadors - United States, Canada, France, Finland, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway and Sweden - mobilized in favor of patron and businessman Osman Kavala, imprisoned for four years without having been tried.

The diplomats "backed down" and "will be more careful in the future," said the head of state after a long meeting of his government, the content of which was not disclosed but during which, according to observers, he has no doubt been warned of the disastrous consequences of a new international crisis.

In a joint statement on October 18, the ambassadors called for a "fair and rapid settlement of the Osman Kavala affair."

This text constituted an "attack" and a "huge insult" against Turkish justice, said Recep Tayipp Erdogan.

"Our intention was not to create a crisis but to protect our rights, our honor, our pride and our sovereign interests", he insisted.

During the day, the 10 chanceries concerned had started a de-escalation by means of communiques, in which they affirmed to act in "conformity with the Vienna Convention and its article 41" which frames diplomatic relations and prohibits any interference in the internal affairs of the country host.

A statement "positively received" by the Turkish president, noted the official news agency Anadolu.

This first sign of relaxation immediately caused a rise in the Turkish lira, which opened the day with a new fall.

Collision

To expel 10 Western ambassadors and for the most part allies, despite the differences, would directly collide with two international meetings scheduled for the weekend: the G20 summit in Rome on Saturday, the group of the most industrialized countries, then the conference on the UN climate which opens Sunday in Scotland (United Kingdom).

However, the Turkish president hopes to meet US President Joe Biden in Rome.

Turkey is notably in the cold with Washington on contracts for F-35 fighter planes - paid and not delivered - and an order for parts for F-16 fighters.

As well as the purchase of a Russian S-400 anti-aircraft defense system, despite its NATO membership.

For observers, it was mainly with this movement of mood to "create a diversion", Turkey being in the grip of an economic crisis, with an official inflation rate approaching 20% ​​and a currency in free fall of about 25% year-to-date against the dollar.

For Didier Billion, deputy director of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris) and specialist in Turkey, President Erdogan was undoubtedly reminded by "his Minister of Foreign Affairs to the principle of reality: Turkey could not put itself of the main partners back. "

"Now it will be hard to manage with his electorate", he predicts: "He does not come out of the sequence reinforced".

"This will be seen as a rather unusual maneuver in Turkey, given its image as a strong man on the world stage which it benefits from domestically," said Soner Cagaptay, director of the program on Turkey in Washington. Institute of Near East Policy.

The expert evokes a "quarter of an hour of humility" for President Erdogan: "He had not backed down from the West since the 2015 refugee crisis with Europe".

The day after the publication of their press release on Osman Kavala, the 10 ambassadors were summoned to the Foreign Ministry, the authorities deeming their approach "unacceptable".

Conspiracy

Publisher and philanthropist born in Paris, Osman Kavala was kept in detention at the beginning of October by an Istanbul court which considered "lacking new elements to release him".

 The 64-year-old man has always rejected the charges against him.

He will appear again on November 26.

In December 2019, the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) ordered the “immediate release” of the patron - to no avail.

For Hasni Abidi, professor of international relations at the University of Geneva (Switzerland) and director of the Center for Studies and Research on the Arab and Mediterranean World (CERMAM), Erdogan addressed himself above all to his base and to the nationalists who " espouse the conspiratorial accusations of the Head of State ".

"I am not sure that Kavala won this media coverage," he says.

"Erdogan cannot afford to free Kavala now, that would make him look weak. He is making a hero of international stature, a kind of Turkish Navalny," concludes Timur Kuran, professor of economics and political science. at Duke University (United States), with reference to the Russian opponent.

With AFP

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