The People's Power presidential primary debate is in full swing.
The joint discussion in Gwangju, Jeollabuk-do, and Jeonnam on the 11th will start on the 11th, and will continue until the 30th.
After mobile voting for two days from the 1st of next month, ARS voting and public opinion polls for two days from the 3rd, the National Power of the People presidential candidate will be finally decided at the national convention on the 5th.
The SBS Fact-Eun team has fact-checked the statements made during the Democratic presidential debate.
Of course, candidates for the People's Power should also do it.
Rather than fact-checking the horsetail, I thought about things that could be contextualized through verification.
Today's verification target is two pieces of data melted out of the remarks of Hong Jun-pyo and Yoon Seok-yeol.
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Hong Joon-pyo's 'Conscription System' data
First, on the 15th, People's Power Hong Jun-pyo, the presidential primary candidate, said in a one-on-one debate.
Candidate Hong pledged a recruitment system, and cited foreign cases as the basis.
“Even Taiwan has gone to the conscription system. (Taiwan) has a very tight relationship with China. The conscription system is a global trend. Currently, 31 countries have adopted the conscription system, and all the rest are enlistment systems. It means it's time to do it."
- Hong Jun-pyo, the presidential candidate for the People's Power, <one-on-one debate>, last October 15
As Hong said, we looked at 31 countries that are implementing the conscription system.
First, I typed '31 countries with conscription system' and 'status of countries with conscription system' in the search bar of the portal site.
However, I could not find the statistics of 31 countries with conscription.
Instead, there were media reports that 31 countries had abolished the conscription system and switched to the enlistment system after 2000.
Since 2000, 31 countries abolished the conscription system had some relevance to Candidate Hong's remarks, so I searched for data sources, but it was difficult to find any related research results.
However, we were able to confirm that the cases in the article were almost consistent with the cases of 31 countries presented by the online encyclopedia 'Namu Wiki'.
It was tabulated from France and Spain in 2001 to Moldova in 2020.
Source: Namoo Wiki
The SBS Fact-Eun team does not base its facts on online encyclopedia materials that anyone can edit.
You need an exact rationale.
Among domestic data, “The Need for a Step-by-Step Recruitment System to Realize an Elite Forces in the Divided Situation” was frequently cited in 2019 by the Democratic Research Institute, a think tank of the Democratic Party of Korea.
Out of 155 countries, 89 countries have a conscription system and 66 countries have a conscription system.
We also looked for overseas cases.
The British Institute for International Strategic Issues (IISS), a think tank for defense and diplomacy in the UK, analyzed in its 2018 Military Balance report, 93 of the 164 countries with standing troops and 71 countries with a conscription system.
Besides this, the team actually looked for various data, but the numbers were all different.
I asked the Department of Defense if they had accurate data.
"We don't organize the types of conscription by country. Actually, we looked for it, but we couldn't find anything accurate, and the people who do the research also said that. So first, we put military-related information on the CIA's website (CIA Factbook). There is this, and I'm referring to it. The office of the legislature often asks for data related to the types of conscription by country, but we are also saying that there is no set one."
- Ministry of Defense officials
It is read to mean that it is difficult to clearly distinguish between the conscription system and the conscription system.
As the Ministry of Defense said, I looked up the CIA Factbook (https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook).
In fact, the team also categorizes the conscription system and the conscription system based on the facts of the fact book.
If there are expressions such as 'compulsory', 'obligational', or 'conscriptional', such expressions as 'voluntary' and 'no conscription' If there were, they were classified as enlisted.
There are limitations as we did not conduct a complete investigation by examining the types of conscription for each country individually.
According to the CIA Factbook, 66 countries have conscription system and 121 countries have conscription system.
According to the factbook, 14 out of 66 countries with conscription system also have elements of conscription.
However, factbook analysis can also be inaccurate.
Norway, for example, is known as a country with a strong conscription system where women also go to the military.
When it comes to the controversy over women enlisting in the military, it is a country that is often mentioned along with the Israeli case.
The factbook wrote in the Norwegian conscription system:
Selective conscription for men and women aged 19-36;
17 years old for male applicants (16 years old in wartime conditions);
18 years old for female applicants;
19 months of mandatory service;
Conscripts serve 12 months at the age of 19-28, followed by a period of up to 4-5 re-education periods until the age of 34, 44, 55, or 60, depending on rank and position.
19-35 years of age for male and female selective compulsory military service;
17 years of age for male volunteers (16 in wartime);
18 years of age for women;
19-month service obligation;
conscripts first serve 12 months from 19-28, and then up to 4-5 refresher training periods until age 35, 44, 55, or 60 depending on rank and function - CIA factbook, military-service-age-and-obligation Norway
However, it is controversial whether Norway can be considered a conscripted country.
Defense One, a US military specialized media, reported in March as follows.
"In Norway, the word 'conscripted' means that you have realistically passed the military service competition. Only 15% of 19-year-old Norwegians are enlisting."
And in Norway, "conscripted" means "having successfully passed the highly competitive selection for national service."
Only about 15 percent of Norwegian 19-year-olds are accepted.
- U.S. military media outlet Defense One <How Norway Is Folding Civilians into National Defense>, reported on March 12
Thai idol singer Nichkhun's enlistment lottery scene. The last episode aired on SBS8 News on April 7, 2015.
In Thailand, only men over the age of 18 who have passed a physical examination are selected for enlistment by lottery. A scene in which Nichkhun, an idol singer from Thailand, who is active in Korea, drew a lottery for enlistment was reported and became a hot topic.
In Thailand, there are people who go to the army against their will, so it may be a conscription, and it can be said that it has some characteristics of enlistment because it is not compulsory. The CIA Factbook classified Thailand as a 'conscription country'.
The Ministry of National Defense said, "Even if it is classified as a conscription system, there are countries that do not go if they refuse conscription. Even in the same country, some scholars say that it is a conscription system, and some scholars say that it is a conscription system."
Even the United States, which is known as a representative country with a conscription system, has a view that it should be classified as a nominal conscription system because the entire population is viewed and managed as a military force. In academia, in addition to the conscription system and the conscription system, it is divided into selective conscription system, lottery conscription system, conscription/recruitment system, complete conscription system, and alternative service type conscription system, etc.
However, it is also true that a significant number of domestic and foreign data consider the number of countries with conscription system to be more than 60. The same goes for our team's analysis. After all, the data of candidate Hong Jun-pyo that "31 countries have adopted the conscription system" is difficult to see as fact.
Controversy over the recruitment system will inevitably come up and down frequently in the future, but it seems that a clear conception is needed.
Seok-Yeol Yoon's 'Tourism Industry Contribution Rate' data
These are the remarks that Candidate Seok-Yeol Yoon made during a joint debate on the 13th.
It was a discussion held in Jeju Island, and he said that he would develop the tourism industry.
"The global average tourism industry's contribution to GDP is about 10%, compared to only 2.8% in Korea."
- Yoon Seok-yeol, the presidential candidate for the People's Power, <Joint Debate>, last October 13
Politicians often cite media articles.
When I searched related articles, the Korea Culture and Tourism Research Institute cited and analyzed data from the World Travel and Tourism Association (WTTC).
It was an article in October of last year.
As of 2019, the overall average contribution of tourism industry GDP of 200 countries was 10.4%, while it was true that Korea reported 2.8%.
It seems to be a reference to this.
When I went to the tourism information system of the Korea Culture and Tourism Institute, the original source of the data, I could not find any related data.
However, since the WTTC analyzed the tourist information information system, the WTTC found the relevant data directly.
In June 2021, we referred to the <TRAVEL & TOURISM ECONOMIC IMPACT 2021> report issued by the WTTC.
As a result, the contribution of Korea's tourism industry to GDP plummeted from 4.4% in 2019 to 2.4% in 2020.
As you know, it was the aftermath of the corona virus.
The global average fell from 10.4% in 2019 to 5.5% in 2020.
Based on the WTTC report, the remark that "the global average contribution of tourism industry to GDP is only 10% and Korea is only 2.8%" is based on 2019, when the global average was 'before Corona', and Korea's 'post-coronavirus' ' It is almost the same as the figure based on 2020.
It is true that Korea's tourism industry's contribution to GDP is low.
The WTTC separately counts the 20 countries with the largest GDP, which came last in both 2019 and 2020.
However, the decrease rate was relatively small at 8th place.
In fact, the team believes that Candidate Seok-Yeol Yoon's statement that "the contribution of Korea's tourism industry to GDP is low" is true, but the figures based on "the world average of 10% and Korea's 2.8%" are statistically skewed.
Because it may not seem to reflect the dramatic contraction of the tourism industry before and after the coronavirus.
When data meets politics
It's been long since the recruiting system has a lot to say.
Please understand that there is a lot to investigate.
However, I hope that this verification will not be read as a fact check that catches the tails of candidates.
In fact, the reason why the team closely looked at the data of the conscription system and tourism industry mentioned by the two candidates is because of concerns about the future rather than the current verification.
There is less competition between party candidates now, but next month a fierce battle between the opposition and opposition candidates will start.
In the process, many figures, statistics, and data are inevitably cited.
In fact, the team has been through the presidential, local and general elections since 2017, and has often seen cases where data is distorted and used according to political interests.
For clarity of argument, only a certain part of the statistics were extracted, or even if there is data now, there were cases where the logic was made by recalling old data.
This is a case where the data goes beyond its original purpose and is fitted by politics.
It is important to keep in mind that data, figures, and statistics, which are always the basis of facts, can be sufficiently transformed after 'the time of politics'.
I fact-checked this part because I wanted to think about it with the viewers.
In fact, the team always tries to keep a close eye on the candidates' remarks and the supporting data.
I hope the viewers will join us as well.
You can request a fact check verification by typing SBS facts on the Internet.
If you request it, we will fact-check it to the best of our ability.
(Interns: Kwon Min-sun, Song Hae-yeon)
<Main Reference>
International Institute for Strategic Issues (ISIS), <Military Balance> 2018 Report, (https://www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/the-military-balance-2018)
Institute for Democracy , <In order to realize the ‘Elite strong army’ in the divided situation, it is necessary to switch to a gradual recruitment system>, Policy Briefing No. 2019-05, July 2019
CIA Factbook (https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook)
Defense One, "How Norway Is Folding Civilians into National Defense", 12 March 2021.
World Travel and Tourism Association (WTTC), <TRAVEL & TOURISM ECONOMIC IMPACT 2021>, June 2021.