Foreign Affairs: Washington cannot focus on China while underestimating Russia's power

Chris Foreign Affairs Journal of the

American site (

) one of

quarterly lengthy foreign policy of the

administration of

President Joe Biden ,

in assessing the

"danger" that the

United States faces from China and Russia, saying it should not America go beyond the

myth that Russia is

deteriorating strength, stressing that Moscow will remain one of the centers of global power and Washington cannot focus on China while ignoring Russia.

The article's authors, Michael Kaufman and Andrea Kendall Taylor, said the Biden administration came to power with a clear and unambiguous priority in foreign policy: confronting a rising China would be the focus of Washington's national security concern, along with transnational threats such as climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic, As for the issue of dealing with Russia, it did not receive proper attention.

Moscow is still a world power

The article pointed out that Biden is not the first American leader to think in this direction.

Since the end of the Cold War, American politicians have said that Moscow's days as a true global superpower are numbered.

The authors refute in many detail the argument for Russia's decline, such as Russia's shrinking population and its stagnant economy dependent on natural resources, rampant corruption in the entire system and the dominance of ineffective state-owned enterprises, international sanctions that restrict Russia's access to capital and technology, and the difficulties it faces in Develop, retain and attract scientific talent;

and bureaucratic mismanagement.

It is natural, with such a bleak view of Russia, to assume that its capacity to cause unrest and hostility on the international stage will also soon diminish, and that the Kremlin's resources will be depleted due to its aggressive foreign policy, they said. Weakness of Russia and reduce its strengths.

Moscow's military power

While the authors agree to some extent on the Russian weaknesses mentioned, they focus on the fact that Russia will remain a significant military power, noting that this strength has been compensating for the country's relatively undiversified economy, technological backwardness, and the lack of political dynamism.

They noted that Russia will remain the primary counterpart to the United States in the field of nuclear weapons technology, as it has the most powerful conventional army in Europe, which was reconstituted after a period of military reforms and investments since 2008, and this shift was largely ignored before 2014, which is Which explains why Russia's military moves in Ukraine, and later in Syria, took many Western analysts by surprise.

They reiterated that the Russian army today is at the highest level of readiness, mobility and technical ability in decades, while NATO remains superior on paper, in addition to that, Russia also has a flexible group of special forces, mercenaries and military intelligence agents, adding its position as a leading force in space or Its extensive electronic warfare capabilities, which were recently demonstrated as Russian hackers hacked and spied on many US government agencies.

long-term competitor

They said the United States should think of Russia not as a low power but as a stable, willing and capable power to threaten the national security interests of the United States for at least the next 10-20 years, and even if China proves to be the most important long-term threat, Russia will also remain A long-term competitor, the former Soviet space remains a powder box.

No matter how much Washington wants to focus on the Indo-Pacific region, it should consider the possibility of another Russo-Ukrainian war, a military conflict resulting from political turmoil in Belarus, or Nagorno-Karabakh-style crises in 2020.

The authors highlight another aspect that “should be of concern to America” is that Moscow is increasingly finding common cause with Beijing, as the two governments have formed a strategic partnership, exchanging technical and material support to balance Western pressure, while focusing their resources on competing with the United States rather than competing with the United States. each other.

Their defense and military cooperation has also grown, noting that the impact of this cooperation will be greater than the sum of its parts, amplifying the challenge to the interests of the United States posed by each individual country. Recognize that the problems countries pose are not necessarily separable.

Defending democracy

Finally, the authors argue, as Washington must be bolder in its efforts to defend democracy against external subversion, it and its allies and partners must intensify their collective responses to Moscow's cyberwarfare, election interference, and other actions that threaten the health of its political and economic systems.

It also requires addressing working with like-minded democratic partners in international organizations, such as the International Telecommunication Union, to ensure that Beijing and Moscow are not writing the digital rules and standards of the future.

He concluded by saying that the gravitational force of the threat posed by a rising China is understandable, but the United States is able to deal with two forces simultaneously: China, an evolving threat, and Russia, a persistent threat.