America suffers from stagnation and the absence of effective leadership
Biden may give up Taiwan for a deal with China
America and its allies have recently strengthened their presence near Taiwan.
À archival
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“Farewell to great power competition and hello to strategic competition,” said President Joe Biden's administration spokesman. According to analysts, these comments indicate a shift toward a more cooperative, even conciliatory, US attitude toward the Chinese leadership. Moreover, Biden told the media, on October 6, that he had spoken with Chinese President Xi Jinping, regarding Taiwan, saying, "We agreed that we will abide by the Taiwan Agreement." The agreement the US president was referring to is the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, a vague agreement drafted between China and the United States, in which the latter treats Taiwan as a state without formal recognition. While the 1979 agreement allows for US military assistance to be provided to Taiwan so that Taiwan can "retain adequate self-defense capacity," the terms of this agreement allow the Americans to evade this obligation when it is convenient for Washington.
Thus, Biden's call to his Chinese counterpart came in the wake of China's violation of the Taiwanese air defense zone, during the past week.
At that time, China deployed more than 50 warplanes in apparent violation, in order to test Taiwan's cumbersome air defense network.
And push the island's army to the point of indignation.
At some point, a fatal miscalculation will occur between China and Taiwan, which could spark another world war that Washington may not be prepared to fight.
In response to the recent tension in the Taiwan Strait, the United States has deployed two carrier strike groups near Japan's Okinawa.
These powerful American warships work with the British Royal Navy's attack aircraft carrier;
A group of warships from Japan, New Zealand, Canada and the Netherlands also joined the US-led fleet.
The intention of the movement of this fleet was to deter Beijing from any further aggressive actions during the period of deteriorating relations between Beijing and Washington. And China is likely to be indifferent. Deterrence works only with an adversary who is willing to abandon the objective for which he is making attempts to prevent that adversary from achieving it.
Frankly, Beijing wants Taiwan more than Washington wants the island to be separated from China. The current situation in China is particularly dangerous, during Xi Jinping's continued rule. As China's economy undergoes a large-scale reorganization that could tip the scales, the Chinese leader is seeking to draw attention with powerful displays of nationalism, such as restoring the "lost" province of Taiwan. Meanwhile, President Biden has crises everywhere. The US economy is teetering on the brink as inflation continues unabated, a government shutdown looms, fragile supply chains cannot keep up with rising demand, Americans are avoiding returning to work, preferring instead to receive larger welfare payments, and the coronavirus continues to ravage the country. Spread all over the United States.
To offset these economic threats to the Biden presidency, the White House will likely try to strike a new trade deal with China that would curb inflation and boost trade. Moreover, Biden fears a man-made global climate catastrophe. He and Climate Commissioner John Kerry have insisted for years that China is the key to curbing human-caused climate change. Far from courting China, the administration is likely seeking to restore relations to the way they were before the rise of Donald Trump in 2016. And no matter what Biden says, he is unlikely to commit American forces to the defense of Taiwan.
According to a 2021 survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, only 41 percent of Americans support the use of American military force to defend Taiwan, so it is not politically appropriate for Biden to risk another world war, at least according to opinion polls.
Beijing is fast approaching the time when it is ready to challenge Washington over Taiwan.
And if Biden refuses to move militarily to prevent a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Beijing will likely offer Biden a futile prize, a hollowed-out climate deal, and a new trade deal that empowers China in the long run.
The decline of American power will continue under Biden until there is nothing left of the American-led world order.
With the only American options being world war or surrender, without an actual leader to rally the American people to what is right and chart a new course, what else can be expected other than the collapse of American power in the Indo-Pacific.
• In response to the recent tension in the Taiwan Strait, the United States has deployed two carrier strike groups near Japan's Okinawa.
• To offset the economic threats to Biden's presidency, the White House is likely to try to reach a new trade deal with China that would curb inflation and boost trade.
Brandon Weichert ■ Writer and political analyst
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