The agreement between the United States and Australia on the construction of nuclear submarines in the framework of the AUKUS partnership may become a precedent, and "it cannot be ruled out" that other countries will want to use it to implement their own similar projects.
This was stated by Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi during his visit to Washington.
At the same time, according to him, there is still no mechanism that would guarantee that nuclear technologies transferred to third countries will not be used to create weapons.
Therefore, a group specially created at the IAEA will have to deal with the development of appropriate control measures.
“I have already set up a working group within the Inspectorate (IAEA), which included very experienced safeguards inspectors and legal experts, to look into this matter,” Grossi quoted the Guardian as saying.
The IAEA Director General stressed that appropriate agreements should be developed on the proper use of technologies and materials that Australia will receive.
According to him, he had already raised this topic at a meeting with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.
As part of the AUKUS alliance, the United States and the United Kingdom are responsible for ensuring that nuclear materials and technology are delivered to Australia in a safe manner that does not increase the risk of nuclear proliferation, according to Grossi.
“We need to make special agreements to provide guarantees for all the technologies and materials that they receive ... Now we have to carefully work out all the details, which has never been done before, and this is an extremely time-consuming process,” added Grossi.
He also noted that while the limiting factor for those countries that want to follow the example of Australia, are technical problems in the construction of nuclear submarines.
“Ensuring the safe operation of a nuclear reactor on a submarine is a very difficult task,” the IAEA Director General said.
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi
Reuters
© Leonhard Foeger
At the same time, he noted that back in 2018, Iran informed the IAEA of its intentions to start a program to equip its Navy with nuclear powered submarines.
Iranian officials touched on the same topic in September on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, and they pointed to the deal between the United States and Australia as a precedent.
At the same time, as Rafael Grossi previously pointed out, the deal between the United States and Australia on nuclear submarines, as such, does not contradict the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
"The authors of these norms, drawn up several decades ago, have foreseen or included in them cases when a country, not even one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, would like to take the opportunity to have naval nuclear power plants at its disposal," he said in an interview with the industry resource Energy Intelligence.
However, the IAEA director general has previously emphasized that nuclear materials that will be transferred as fuel may contain weapon-grade highly enriched uranium.
Nuclear issues
Despite the fact that Washington, Canberra and London have previously expressed their willingness to work with the IAEA to determine how Australia can obtain nuclear submarines, Russia and China have expressed their concerns about the proliferation of nuclear technology.
In particular, Vladimir Ermakov, Director of the Department for Nonproliferation and Arms Control of the Russian Foreign Ministry, noted that the deal between the United States and Australia could lead to the emergence of a nuclear infrastructure in the latter.
“It is already obvious that such a partnership will not contribute to strengthening the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).
There are potential risks of using another non-nuclear state to deploy military nuclear infrastructure facilities for nuclear states.
This increases the level of international instability and contradicts the tasks of reducing the arsenals of nuclear weapons, ”he said at a meeting of the first committee of the UN General Assembly on arms control.
According to him, despite the fact that the construction of nuclear submarines by a non-nuclear state party to the NPT is not prohibited by the treaty, it "can create a very negative precedent in terms of the implementation of IAEA safeguards."
Also, the Russian Foreign Ministry previously pointed out the need to ensure transparency in the issue of such a sensitive project, which should be carried out under the supervision of the IAEA.
“It is imperative that, under all circumstances, all the basic statutory rights and tasks of the IAEA are scrupulously observed here, and that the NPT Safeguards Agreement between Australia and the Agency is strictly observed.
It is extremely important to ensure the necessary transparency in this matter so that the member states of the agency have a complete picture of what is happening, ”the Russian delegation said in a statement at the September session of the IAEA Board of Governors in Vienna.
In China, the prospect of Australia receiving nuclear submarines reacted more sharply, calling it "an act of nuclear proliferation."
“The United States and Great Britain, being nuclear powers, export to Australia, which is not a member of the nuclear club, such supersensitive technologies as nuclear submarines and highly enriched uranium suitable for creating nuclear weapons.
However, the IAEA mechanisms do not have the capacity to conduct effective verification.
This is in its purest form an act of nuclear proliferation, "- said at a briefing on September 30, the official representative of the Ministry of Defense of the PRC, Senior Colonel Wu Qian.
The building of the Ministry of Defense of the People's Republic of China
Reuters
© Jason Lee
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs saw in the deal between the United States and Australia a threat to the strategic balance in the region and Canberra's disregard for its obligations under the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone Treaty.
“These actions will deal a blow to the nuclear nonproliferation system, harm the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone Treaty, and undermine the ASEAN countries' efforts to create a nuclear free zone in Southeast Asia.
This is a typical example of an arrogant attitude, "Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said.
He also noted that the example of a nuclear submarine deal pushes other regional states to a forced build-up of military power, up to the desire to overcome the nuclear threshold, and thereby increases the risks of a military conflict.
"On the one hand, the United States is putting pressure on some countries and, under the pretext of developing nuclear technologies, imposes sanctions on them, and on the other, they themselves openly transfer nuclear technologies to non-nuclear countries, which is a typical example of double standards," head of the Chinese foreign policy department.
A fine line
Experts note that the intentions of the United States and Australia to build nuclear submarines are balancing on a fine line of compliance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
“Of course, legally, the NPT has windows regarding the transfer of nuclear technologies to third countries.
However, in the case of AUKUS, we are talking about nuclear submarines, which can hardly be called a peaceful project, since it can lead to an imbalance of forces in the region.
Therefore, in this respect, we can say that the deal between the United States and Australia is contrary to the spirit of the treaty.
In this regard, the IAEA needs to closely monitor future manipulations with the transfer of nuclear technology, "Sergei Ermakov, a leading expert at the RISS Research Coordination Center, explained in an interview with RT.
In addition, he noted, the current deal will undoubtedly become a precedent, since many countries are interested in creating similar projects.
“It's another matter that not everyone has political, economic and technical opportunities for this.
After all, Australia, too, would hardly ever have taken the initiative in terms of owning a nuclear submarine.
But the United States came in very handy here, ”the expert said.
Announcement of AUKUS Partnership Between USA, UK and Australia
Reuters
© Tom Brenner
Vasily Kashin, a military expert and senior research fellow at the Higher School of Economics, agrees with him.
According to him, Brazil, Canada, Japan and South Korea are showing interest in creating their own nuclear submarines.
“There is a demand for this class of ships.
And an important point that should be noted is the difference between American and British nuclear submarines from the machines of other countries in terms of using the fuel category.
Their reactors use uranium with an almost weapons-grade enrichment level, that is, it is also the spread of enriched uranium to third parties, ”Kashin said.
However, he also confirmed that not all countries can handle such projects, as they involve huge financial costs.
After all, it will take, for example, the creation of our own bases for the training of crews, as well as the formation of new industries.
In addition, as Sergei Ermakov emphasized, if the current American-Australian project is being implemented, then great appetites may come for it - from the possession of nuclear submarines to the deployment of more serious weapons on them, and from him to the development of their own nuclear warheads.
However, as Vasily Kashin added, the United States now needs Australia to contain China in the region, which is why they initiated the provision of nuclear submarines to Canberra.
"At the same time, the threat from Australian nuclear submarines affects not only the balance of forces of conventional weapons, but also the problem associated with strategic stability," the expert summed up.