In light of sharp division and deep disagreements, Sudan is witnessing today, Thursday, protest "processions", which raise many demands, most notably the handover of the transitional authority to civilians and the dissolution of the partnership with the military component.

The Sudanese scene seems very complicated, with the mass mobilization continuing between the parties to a crisis, each of them clinging to his position, and considering himself a defender of the December 2018 revolution.

Deep differences strike the military and civilian components of the transitional authority, in addition to differences between the civilians themselves.

Against the backdrop of a failed military coup attempt last September 21, a conflict erupted between the military and civilian components of the Transitional Sovereignty Council (representing the presidency), and they exchanged accusations within a dispute that extended to freezing the work of the power institutions that unite the two parties.

Civilian officials and party leaders say that the accusations of the military leaders of the political forces "pave a path for a coup" before the military component hands over the leadership of the Sovereignty Council to the civilian component next November.

This date is not a matter of consensus between the two components, after the transitional period agreed upon - in the “constitutional document” (regarding the transitional government) was extended by an additional 14 months to become 53 months, following the signing of a peace agreement between the government and armed movements, on the third of October The first 2020.

Since August 21, 2019, Sudan has been living in a transitional period that ends with elections in early 2024, during which power is shared by the army, city forces (a coalition of forces of the "Declaration of Freedom and Change"), and the armed movements that signed the peace agreement.


Manifold protests

It is likely - according to observers - that Thursday's protests will change the political equation, after calls have increased to go out in rallies to support the civil transition in all cities of Sudan.

These calls were launched by the "Declaration of Freedom and Change - Central Council Group", the Communist Party, the Professionals' Association, and the Resistance Committees, which led the protests in neighborhoods, villages and cities against the regime of ousted President Omar al-Bashir.

A week ago, this corresponded to a sit-in in front of the presidential palace in Khartoum, to demand the restoration of the revolution, the dissolution of the transitional government headed by Abdullah Hamdok, and the expansion of political participation in the transitional authority.

It is a sit-in carried out by the "Forces of Freedom and Change - the National Charter Group", one of the components of the "Declaration of Freedom and Change" forces, which led popular protests condemning the deteriorating economic conditions, which prompted the army leadership to oust al-Bashir, on April 11, 2019.

Even the "National Charter Movement" called on its supporters to go out on Thursday, as it is a "national day for all."

It also called on parties opposed to the authority, such as the People's Congress, to participate in the processions.

night demonstrations

During the past two days, night demonstrations took place in neighborhoods in the cities of Khartoum, Sennar, Singa (southeast), Madani (central), Al-Duweim (south) and Al-Obeid (south), in preparation for the processions demanding the transfer of power to civilians.

The demonstrators in the protests tonight raised slogans calling for the civil state and denouncing the military in the Sovereignty Council, which consists of 14 members: 5 of the military, 6 of the civilians, and 3 of the armed movements that signed the peace agreement.

They also called for the departure of the head of the Sovereign Council, Lieutenant-General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, and his deputy, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo "Hemedti", and chanted slogans against the leaders of the "National Charter Movement", especially the head of the Sudan Liberation Movement Minni Arko Minnawi and Mubarak Ardol.

And last Tuesday, forces affiliated with the Sudan Liberation Movement opened fire to disperse demonstrators in the city of Omdurman, west of Khartoum, and said that a group of young men attacked its headquarters and destroyed its property, and the guard confronted it without injuries.


mobilization on both sides

The scene in Sudan appears as a confrontation between two groups, one of which represents the Thursday protests, and the other represents the sit-in in front of the presidential palace.

And yesterday, Wednesday, Minawi, who is also the governor of the Darfur region (west), called - during a press conference in Khartoum - that October 21 be a day of tolerance and national unity for all the people of Sudan, warning against incitement and treason.

Jibril Ibrahim, head of the Justice and Equality Movement and one of the leaders of the "National Charter" movement, also urged - through a video recording - the need to avoid clashing and destabilizing the transitional period.

"In mobilization and counter-mobilization, I see that people avoid confrontation, and everyone has the right to express peacefully and without resorting to violence," he added.

He added, "Any form of clashes in demonstrations is not allowed, and if there is a Mu'tasim party, the other party should hold a sit-in in another place."

Jibril stressed that the military had nothing to do with their demand (the National Charter Movement) to dissolve the government and their sit-in in front of the presidential palace, as well as denying any connection with the remnants of the Bashir regime.

Divergent demands

Each and his demands, the political and civil forces - which participated in the protests to overthrow al-Bashir - agreed to participate in the demonstrations today, Thursday.

The coalition of forces of the "Declaration of Freedom and Change" (the ruling coalition) announced last Monday that it had responded to the call of professionals and resistance committees to participate in the processions.

The coalition called - in a statement - to demonstrate to demand the completion of the revolution, support for the democratic civil transition, the achievement of justice and the building of a unified armed forces.

Meanwhile, the Association of Professionals - the leader of the movement - called for a demand to hand over power to civilians, and to form the (transitional) Legislative Council from the forces of the revolution.

And he continued - in a statement the first day on Tuesday - that Thursday's movement will be to achieve demands, most notably the integration of the Rapid Support Forces (led by Hemedti) into the army, as well as the integration of armed movements into the army, leading to a strong, unified army with a national ideology.

And last Tuesday, the Communist Party called on everyone to go out to Thursday's demonstrations to build civilian authority and protect it from military coups.

And he stressed - in a statement - the need to continue to complete the revolution and its goals and to retrieve it from its military abductors and those who agree with them.

At a time when the Khartoum Committee Coordination said - in a joint statement of 17 committees last Tuesday - that it will come out against the partnership between civilians and the military, and with its overthrow and the establishment of a full and undiminished civil state.

As for the People's Congress - the most prominent opposition party - it called for participation in Thursday's rallies to form an independent, non-partisan government, and to hold elections on their scheduled date, at the end of the transitional period in January 2024.


military component

On the other hand, the military component of the transitional authority did not issue any comment regarding the protests scheduled for Thursday.

However, the editor-in-chief of the (official) Armed Forces newspaper, Lieutenant-Colonel Ibrahim Al-Houry, said in an article last Monday that "the national consensus processions were launched on Saturday (the Charter movement's demonstrations turned into a sit-in), a desire by the proud people for a corrective return to the founding platform that the revolution brought. which did not achieve the slogans it was called for.”

He considered that last Saturday's processions came after the people lost confidence, to complete their revolution, and to advocate the values ​​of freedom and justice that were lost among the chairs of power.

Al-Houri added that the armed forces remain the sanctuary of the people of Sudan, and the armed forces will not disappoint their people, and they will meet their expectations.

open possibilities

According to political analyst Othman Fadlallah, "all possibilities are open in Thursday's demonstrations, which will lead to a new reality in accordance with the choices of the street."

He explained - to Anatolia - that the choices that the street will impose today, Thursday, may lead to the dissolution of the partnership between civilians and the military, in response to the forces of the Declaration of Freedom and Change to the street's demand for a complete civilian government from which the military are excluded.

He continued, "This is an option that puts the entire military establishment in the face of the street, either to meet it with acquiescence or to confront it with refusal, or for the military to accept the demands of completing the power structures (the Legislative Council), building a unified army and committing to handing over power to civilians."

Fadlallah considered that the most prominent fears of the demonstrations are the outbreak of violence or a clash with the group of protesters in front of the palace loyal to the army, or that the dispute will strike the military establishment or part of it in its violent handling of the protests.