Can Khartoum be the site of a possible showdown between rival camps in Sudan?
Supporters of the military regime have held a sit-in in front of the presidential palace since this weekend, while pro-civilians call Thursday, October 21, for a demonstration in the streets of the Sudanese capital.
The sacred union that prevailed between them, in 2019, against Omar al-Bashir, seems to have fizzled out.
Insisting for the first time on "the partnership between civilians and the military", General Abdel Fattah al-Burhane seemed, on Wednesday evening, to want to reassure the British Vicky Ford, in charge of Africa for the diplomacy of Great Britain, former colonial power still influential in Sudan.
Civilians, parties, rebel groups and unions, united in a coalition, the Forces for Freedom and Change (FLC), managed to push the army, in 2019, to dismiss the autocrat after 30 years of dictatorship.
Today, this coalition is divided.
Breaking away from the historic canal - which continues to demand a complete transfer of power to civilians - a faction has been mobilizing its supporters since Saturday, and is organizing a sit-in announced as "unlimited" in front of the presidential palace in Khartoum.
With thousands of supporters calling for "a military government", the faction also includes militants, who call for a total takeover by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhane.
The demonstrators are determined to stay in front of the presidential palace.
The historic FLC channel is planning a "demonstration of a million people" in Khartoum and other cities in Sudan, to demand the continuation of the transition supposed to lead to elections at the end of 2023 to form a civilian government.
These two demonstrations of rival forces raise fears of tensions, while the country is stuck in a politico-economic slump, and destabilized by a coup attempt a month ago.
>> Failed coup in Sudan: "Many soldiers are against a return to the old regime"
"Sudan has chosen a middle path"
Escalating tensions in the troubled country of 40 million people have raised serious concerns in the region and beyond, but experts do not seem surprised.
According to Professor Natasha Lindstaedt, University of Essex, it is remarkable that the difficult transition has gone so far in Sudan, underlining the toxic legacy of three decades under autocratic rule.
"Omar al-Bashir was a dictator, and by pushing his cult of personality, he caused the collapse of institutions, leaving behind a weak state and an institutional vacuum," she explains to France 24. "With this type of regime, what often follows is complete collapse and chaos, as in Saddam Hussein's Iraq, [Muammar] Gaddafi's Libya or [Ali Abdullah] Saleh's Yemen. "
Instead, the "monumental enterprise" of ousting Omar al-Bashir has resulted in relatively little bloodshed - aside from a crackdown on protesters in June 2019 - and, so far, to a bumpy but largely peaceful transition, notes Natasha Lindstaedt, who has notably written on attempts to transition from authoritarian regimes to democratic regimes.
“It could have turned into a civil war, but it didn't,” she said.
"Some feared a Libyan plunge into chaos or a military takeover, as in Egypt. Ultimately, Sudan chose a middle path, although the unity between civilians and military is largely a facade."
A sign that the rivalry is not weakening, the two camps held simultaneous press conferences on Wednesday.
Avoiding clashes in Khartoum
Sudan Liberation Movement (MLS) leader Minni Minawi, now governor of Darfur and one of the pro-army leaders, called for "October 21 to be a day of tolerance and not incitement to violence ".
"We firmly reject attacks or the use of any form of violence," added Sudanese Minister of Finance Jibril Ibrahim, also head of the pro-military.
At the same time, Ali Ammar, spokesperson for the Resistance Committees of Residential Quarters - an organization that played a key role in the 2019 "revolution" - announced the choice of a route for the pro-civil demonstration. , Thursday, in order to avoid clashes in Khartoum.
"We will not go near the presidential palace or near the government building", where the police recently dispersed pro-army, "to avoid any confrontation with the sit-in as some (the) would like", a- he said.
While the Sudanese government has already warned against any "escalation", the US embassy in Khartoum said on Wednesday "to encourage the demonstrators to pacifism".
On Twitter, she also "recalled the firm support of the United States for the democratic transition in Sudan".
"A difficult marriage"
"The transitional government has made some progress, for example, by negotiating peace agreements with the rebellions, in matters of justice and reconciliation, freedoms in the public space and political prisoners," said David Kiwuwa, professor of international studies at the University of Nottingham-Ningbo, contacted by France 24. "But, in the end, it is the bread and butter issues that are the real pressing concern."
After precipitating the fall of Omar al-Bashir in 2019, can spiraling bread prices - a traditional trigger for popular uprisings - now help the military overthrow civilian rulers?
According to the professor of the Chinese branch of the University of Nottingham, the Sudanese army will hesitate to attempt the kind of takeover that carried Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to neighboring Egypt, brutally ending the democratic experiment of the country.
The power-sharing deal in Sudan "has always been a difficult marriage," says David Kiwuwa.
And he adds: "But we haven't necessarily reached a tipping point. The military still fear being seen pushing aside their civilian partner, which would spell failure of the revolution and unleash widespread anger. She needs the help of the civilians.
International pressure, especially from the United States
Added to this is international pressure.
For several days, Khartoum - whose transition seems increasingly fragile - has experienced a real diplomatic ballet.
On Wednesday, the senior American diplomat Payton Knopf met the Prime Minister, Abdallah Hamdok, who repeated that he wanted to "follow through on the objectives of the revolution", according to a statement.
And this, before a visit, at the end of the week, by the United States' emissary for the Horn of Africa, Jeffrey Feltman, according to the official Suna agency.
Washington has warned that any military seizure of power would lead to a return to the sanctions that paralyzed the country under the regime of Omar al-Bashir, as well as a questioning of the cancellation of the debt and of the international financing which are among the biggest success stories of the transition.
>> To read: Who is Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the new man at the head of Sudan?
It is currently this Sovereignty Council, made up of soldiers and civilians, which oversees the transition with the government led by technocrat Abdallah Hamdok, a former UN economist.
"Sudan is faced with an existential problem, namely how to build a Sudan for all Sudanese", concludes David Kiwuwa.
"But first you have to reach some form of consensus in order to understand which institutions to build."
With AFP
Analysis in English by Benjamin Dodman
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