Abidjan (AFP)

Growth for sub-Saharan Africa should stand at 3.7% in 2021 and 3.8% in 2022, "a welcome but relatively modest recovery", points out the institution in its forecasts published on Thursday.

"The recovery in sub-Saharan Africa will be the slowest in the world given that the developed economies will grow by more than 5% and the emerging or developing countries by more than 6%", continues the IMF.

According to the IMF, the very low vaccination rate on the continent - 2.5% of the population in early October - largely explains this lag.

"Without vaccines, lockdowns were the only option to contain the virus. Even though 12 billion doses of vaccine are to be produced in 2021, it will likely take more than a year for a significant number of people to be vaccinated," on the continent, adds the IMF.

Although Africa was the region of the world least affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, it has also experienced several waves of the disease and some countries like South Africa, its most industrialized economy, have paid a heavy price.

"International cooperation on immunization is crucial (...) it would help reduce the gaps between sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the world and prevent them from becoming permanent fault lines, endangering decades of hard-won economic and social progress, "said Abebe Aemro Selassie, director of the IMF's Africa department.

In detail, in South Africa, growth should stand at 5% this year, better than expected, but return to a more modest level (+ 2.2%) next year, for lack of structural reforms, according to the IMF.

The Nigerian economy is expected to grow by 2.6%, thanks to the high level of oil prices, even if black gold production will remain below pre-Covid levels.

The IMF expects 2.7% growth in 2022 in Africa's most populous country.

In Angola, another economy that relies heavily on oil, the IMF forecasts a GDP contraction of 0.7% in 2021, before a growth of 2.7% in 2022, ending six consecutive years of recession, thanks to the reforms. engaged for a few years.

On the side of countries very dependent on tourism such as Cape Verde, Mauritius, The Gambia or the Seychelles, if growth has returned to its pre-Covid levels, the losses recorded in 2020 will be difficult to erase.

Finally, in the most fragile economies, the security situation (in the Sahel in particular) or political (in Chad and Guinea) could "shake the expected rebound in consumption and investor confidence," warns the IMF.

© 2021 AFP