EU Frustration, clashes and threats: a tense Summit begins in Brussels
Avoid a circus, public fights and do not fall into a toxic spiral that spreads and blocks the day-to-day life of the EU.
The slogan, launched over and over again these weeks from the office of the President of the European Council, was very clear, and this Thursday in Brussels the continental leaders followed it almost strictly.
It was inevitable to talk about Poland, about Poland and with Poland.
It was impossible to ignore the challenge to the rule of law, the threat of Warsaw to the community legal order, and it was a chimera that prime ministers like the Dutch
Mark Rutte
were silent, but
Charles Michel
feared the repetition of what happened a few months ago with
Viktor Orban
and the situation of the LGTBI collective in Hungary and that the summit was monopolized, hatched and did not serve much.
The result, under the circumstances, was reasonably satisfactory for the less combative wing. Spain and other countries wanted to talk about energy, migration, the economy and not get bogged down in something that has no solution.
Angela Merkel
, in what is perhaps her last summit in Brussels, appealed with the clearest example of what her method has been these decades:
"An avalanche of complaints before the European Court of Justice cannot be the solution",
notice. There are countries that have a different idea of what Europe is and should be, that question the idea of seeking 'an ever closer Union' or that prefer more weight for the capitals. "The best place to discuss it is the Conference on the Future of Europe," urged the chancellor. It's his approach: avoiding friction whenever possible, delegating to dilute, waiting when you don't think it's time. And now, he says, it is not.
The disappointment in the European Commission, which is the one who has been holding the ram for years in the pulse with Warsaw, was obvious.
Ursula von der Leyen
is the one who has to fight, the one who gave the reply to
Tadeusz Morawiecki
on Tuesday in the European Parliament, the one who is targeted from the European Parliament for not acting as guardian of the Treaties. "We all have to take responsibility when it comes to protecting fundamental values. I am looking forward to seeing the discussion of the leaders," said the German, short of allies, upon arrival. Mark Rutte spoke clearly.
"In Ireland we are very concerned. We have a good relationship with Poland but we believe in the primacy of European law," said Prime Minister
Michéal Martin
. "We have all decided to be part of the European family, in spirit and also in letter. We are very disappointed by events and by how things are developing and we believe that the solution must be resolved in favor of the rule of law," he added. "Sanctions are the last option, but first I would like to see dialogues, find solutions together, work together in the same direction, not immediately talk about punishment or less funds," added
Xavier Bettel
, from
Luxembourg
, usually one of the most combative in these issues. But little else.
The crises of the last decade, from the economic to the immigration, have seriously eroded trust between partners and created deep divisions and a new clash over the rule of law may burst the bridges that still remain.
For two years, Hungary has been systematically boycotting important foreign policy decisions
, blocking sanctions, common documents. And it also prevents Poland from being punished. If another country joins these dynamics and begins to torpedo operations, the consequences can be very serious.
Operationally, the Summit offered no surprises. Michel wanted the debate on the rule of law not to be on the agenda, but he had to resign. The pact was that it would be discussed, that everyone who wanted (starting with the Polish prime minister and Von der Leyen) to speak, but that there were no written conclusions. This, which is not well understood from the outside, is the key to European functioning. The conclusions, a document that is negotiated word to word for days or weeks, is the political script, it is used to send them to the Commission or to the ministers, to give guidelines, to set limits, to define ambition.
If something is not in the conclusions of the European Council or it does not exist or it is not a priority.
The debate on the first day of the Summit was short. Only a few spoke, showing their concerns but avoiding aggressive confrontation. The Polish prime minister did not feel cornered and that is good and bad, according to the sources consulted. On the one hand the blood does not reach the river, but on the other a stubborn position is encouraged.
They believe in Brussels that in the Visegrad countries they understand the language of force better than that of peace
and they argue that if there is no real clash, sanctions, if money is not threatened, there will be no exchange rate. Warsaw and Budapest are aggressive, they rant, but they could not sustain a long-term campaign if the tap is turned off.
The sensation in the corridors, the clusters, the previous meetings was of concern, but not really of urgency. The Polish question has too many edges to tackle now, fully, or the hard way. It is not something that can be resolved in court, although it is an essential part of the process. It is a political, historical, philosophical problem, but without clear leadership it is difficult to follow a path. With Angela Merkel leaving, without a clear chancellor to succeed her, with
Emmanuel Macron
risking his future in half a year, with acting governments in the Netherlands, Romania, a new chancellor in Austria and problems in other capitals, the distraction is too great .
But postponing the discussion, avoiding the crash now, is not a success per se. Morawiecki has arrived in Brussels, via Strasbourg, with a defiant attitude. He met this Thursday in private with Merkel, Macron and
Pedro Sánchez
, the three leaders of the three main political families, conservatives, liberals and socialists. He wanted to tell them that the situation was not so serious, that it may have accommodated a different Poland within the European family. That they believe in the Union or in the primacy of Community law, but aspire to something that is denied to them.
The response of the three leaders was that there cannot be an à la carte Europe for each one
, that they accept national particularities but that the legal order is sacred and they are playing with fire.
Berlin, and to a lesser degree Paris, want a dialogue solution.
That the European Commission and Warsaw find a way to understand each other, because the route of force, of sanctions, of the conditionality mechanism that can freeze community funds, or not approving the Polish recovery plan, is effective, it is drastic, but also very dangerous.
The European Parliament, which yesterday approved the umpteenth resolution against the PiS government, is pressing, but
there is not too great an appetite to go to war
.
It is not a question of values or principles, say the German and French diplomats, but of pragmatism: in civil wars nobody wins.
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