Cairo -
Between Sudanese leaks, Egyptian skepticism and Ethiopian silence, the signs of the third filling of the lake of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam are increasing, in conjunction with a major dispute between the trio of the crisis over the mechanisms for filling and operating the dam, which reached its climax months ago when Addis Ababa announced the completion of the second filling, so how will Cairo interact with Expected Ethiopian steps?
A few days ago, Arab media quoted diplomats from the Sudanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs as saying that Ethiopia had begun to elevate the middle corridor of the Renaissance Dam, and to put concrete walls;
In preparation for the third filling process, at a time when the Egyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Mohamed Abdel-Aty confirmed that the dam negotiations are "in an almost frozen state."
According to what was reported by local Egyptian media, the Minister of Irrigation referred to contacts at different levels and countries, but they do not live up to his country's ambitions.
While Cairo affirms its quest for a binding legal agreement with Ethiopia to fill and operate the dam, two former diplomats and an expert in African affairs and Egyptian national security agreed, in separate statements to Al Jazeera Net, that Cairo will not deviate from diplomatic and political work and the international and African mobilization away from expectations of a military escalation in Its interaction with the Ethiopian plans for the third filling of the dam lake.
Ambitions and doubts
In general, the dam reservoir is filled during the rainy season, which lasts from June to September every year, and the annual storage level is related to the height of the middle passage of the dam body.
Ethiopia aspires to reach the full storage capacity of the dam lake, which is close to 74 billion cubic meters (close to the quotas of Egypt and Sudan, estimated at 84 billion cubic meters).
Last July, Addis Ababa announced the successful completion of the second phase of filling the dam, which was planned for 13.5 billion cubic meters of water, without declaring the volume of water that had already been stored.
The reserved water behind the dam in the first filling is estimated at about 4.9 billion cubic meters, bringing the total target to 18.4 billion cubic meters, but Egyptian specialists have questioned these numbers on more than one occasion, and confirmed that Ethiopia did not reserve more than 10 billion cubic meters of water in the two phases. the previous two.
Recently, there has been increasing talk of technical and engineering defects in the construction of the dam, and that there are not excluded possibilities that indicate its collapse, according to reports published by Egyptian media.
Indications of the third filling
This comes at a time when leaks appeared, reported by Arab and international media, about a source in the Sudanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs last week, saying that "Ethiopia has begun elevating the middle corridor of the Renaissance Dam, and laying concrete walls, in preparation for the third filling of the dam."
The Sudanese source confirmed that his country is awaiting the invitation of the President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Felix Tshisekedi, who chairs the African Union this year, to resume negotiations, pointing out that Khartoum handed over to the Congolese Foreign Minister, notes on the negotiation methodology, without further details.
Electricity generation
According to the Egyptian academic Abbas Sharaki, Professor of Water Resources at Cairo University, "Any concrete work on the middle corridor can only be done after drying it by draining the excess water through one or more of the four gates (two turbine gates and two drainage gates without turbines)."
The Egyptian expert in water affairs indicated that it is expected to start engineering work in preparation for the third storage next November, by draining part of the water to dry the middle passage, with concrete works to start next February, in order to store 10.5 billion cubic meters, bringing the total Storage next summer to 18.5 billion, then followed by storing an additional 10 billion annually during the following years until reaching a total of 74 billion cubic meters.
Sharaki warned that the cessation of negotiations and the passage of time would allow Ethiopia to take measures to achieve the completion of construction, storage and operation, calling on his country and Sudan to push the international parties and the African Union to speed up the resumption of negotiations, according to what was stated on his Facebook page.
Egyptian alternatives
Last week, President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi confirmed that Egypt's position is consistent on the need to reach a legal and binding agreement on filling and operating the dam, stressing that his country only wants to preserve its share of the Nile waters.
During a press conference with his Hungarian counterpart, Janos Ader, in the Hungarian capital Budapest, Sisi indicated that Egypt is implementing water treatment and seawater desalination programs at a cost of more than $80 billion.
Referring to his country's entry into the stage of past poverty, Sisi stressed that Egypt does not want water to be a cause of conflict, problems or clash, but rather to be a source of development and cooperation, according to what was reported by the Egyptian News Agency (Asha).
Congo proposals
In early October, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry revealed that his country had received proposals from the Congo regarding the Renaissance Dam, which are being studied.
Shoukry warned that Ethiopia's failure to respond to negotiations portends tension in the region, stressing that the basis of any negotiations is not to prejudice Egypt's historical share.
In televised statements last Friday, the Egyptian Foreign Minister affirmed that his country is ready to reach an agreement on the crisis if there is a political will on the other side. On Egypt's water rights.
There is no luxury
In turn, the former Egyptian Minister of Irrigation, Mohamed Nasr Allam, believes that "there is no luxury to accept something else" for the success of the negotiating process and forcing Ethiopia to submit to the legitimate Egyptian demands in the Nile waters.
And on the Egyptian position regarding what was raised about the preparations for the third filling, Allam demanded, in statements to Al Jazeera Net, an official declared position to clarify the state’s position on what is happening and the African Union initiative “to understand where we are going”, bearing in mind that the time drain scheme is still ongoing and the options are fewer. .
The former minister cited previous statements by Sisi, in which he stressed that "Egypt's water share is a red line and it is not allowed to be tampered with or threatened," noting that the Egyptian position will be clear in the negotiations and its terms.
Confused by the official position
In agreement with the previous proposal, Egyptian Ambassador Farghali Taha, former assistant foreign minister, indicated that all the recently announced information indicates that Ethiopia has begun completing the necessary construction works to start the third filling phase of the dam.
The Egyptian ambassador told Al Jazeera Net, that the statements and actions issued by the Ethiopian side still indicate the firmness of its position by not taking serious negotiating steps, in addition to his recent explicit declaration that he refuses to sign a binding agreement unless the Nile water shares are re-divided according to what he sees. It is to have a share of 85% of that water.
The former diplomat considered all this not heralds a breakthrough in the dam crisis, as well as the border problems with Sudan, and Ethiopia's interference in its internal affairs.
Concerning the declared Egyptian position, Farghali Taha said that he is stagnating after he has almost exhausted the international moves;
Because referring the negotiations to the African Union is a step that did not and will not help anything, given the stability of the positions of the other parties, as well as the ineffectiveness and impartiality of the African role that Ethiopia adheres to in order to empty the crisis of its content until the filling of the dam is complete.
He also expressed his bewilderment about his country's official position, according to what was declared politically, saying, "We do not know exactly what the solution will be if the filling of the entire dam lake is completed."
While the issue of reliance on technical defects in the dam’s body is raised, Taha stressed that “it is a strange matter and a trick of the powerless and it does more harm than good, and I feel that there is something that is afraid of us and it seems that all the official parties are not worried about what the people raise for reasons we do not know.”
Scenarios presented
For his part, Major General Mohamed Abdel Wahed, an expert in African affairs and Egyptian national security, explained that the construction of the dam is taking place at a very slow pace.
This is due to reasons stemming from the deteriorating political and economic crisis in Ethiopia, in addition to funding problems and other challenges.
In statements to Al Jazeera Net, Abdel Wahed monitored that among the scenarios presented to the decision maker to confront the third filling process, obtaining a legal agreement that obliges Ethiopia during the filling and operation of the dam to provide accurate information to Egypt and Sudan, in addition to international arbitration in the event of a dispute, and thus Egypt can allow building the dam without detracting from its historical share.
But the former Egyptian general, predicted that Ethiopia would not sign a binding agreement;
Given the different motives between the parties to the crisis, he explained that Ethiopia wants to impose full sovereignty over the Nile, which is rejected by international organizations at various historical stages.
In response to how Egypt will interact with the schemes of the third filling, the Egyptian expert explained that his country will not deviate from diplomatic and political action and the international and African mobilization of Ethiopian violations, away from the other escalation by using hard force, but in the end there is a red line as the political leadership mentioned about the derogation of rights Historical Egypt from the waters of the Nile.
internationalization opportunity
Abdel Wahed added that Egypt has a great opportunity in the process of internationalizing the file;
For reasons, among them, that many downstream countries will sympathize with Egypt who have similar problems in the common rivers and dams, expecting those countries to take positions in support of Egypt and Sudan if the issue is reasonably internationalized.
In this regard, Abdel Wahed warned against Ethiopia's efforts to consolidate the idea of pricing water and using it as a political or economic card, stressing that this is a dangerous indicator that warns of water conflicts during the coming period in more than one region of the world.