Al-Sadr has two options: Kurdish and Sunni consensus or the “Shiite alliance”
Complex challenges facing the formation of an Iraqi government in light of a fragmented parliament
Al-Sadr has repeatedly reiterated his desire to appoint a prime minister from his party.
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Counting votes in one of the polling stations in the Green Zone.
Reuters
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The Iraqi elections, in which the Sadrist movement came to the fore, with the decline of the pro-Iranian bloc, according to the preliminary results, opened the doors to the game of negotiations to choose a new prime minister and form a government, and it seems that its path will be complicated and long in the light of a fragmented parliament.
Official final results will not be released for weeks, indicating further complications.
The questions that need to be answered at the present time are: What can be expected in terms of choosing the next prime minister?
How will alliances form?
And what role might Iran play?
What is the ability of independents to influence the current situation?
Possible alliances
Neither party has a clear majority in Parliament yet.
The Sadrist movement emerges as the first winner in the elections with the largest number of seats, according to the preliminary results (70 out of 329 seats).
Harith Hassan, a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for Research, sees two possible scenarios.
He explains that the first scenario is "the revival of the Shiite alliance, if efforts are made to persuade or force al-Sadr to accept a new power-sharing formula, with a compromise candidate as prime minister, and to agree on some reform principles, such as the future and structure of the Popular Mobilization."
A source in the "Al-Fateh" coalition, which represents the pro-Iranian "Popular Mobilization" factions, told "AFP" that "prominent leaders in (Al-Fatah) suggested to a representative of the Sadrist movement to enter into an alliance with Shiite entities, including (Al-Fateh)," in Parliament, in order to form the next government,” but the representative of the movement did not respond to the proposal.
The second scenario represented a majority coalition. "This scenario is possible unless al-Sadr submits to pressure from his Shiite rivals," Hassan says. Consequently, he may “go to an alliance with the leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, Massoud Barzani, the leader of the Sunni Progress Alliance, Muhammad al-Halbousi, and smaller parties.” Such a scenario will easily lead to the formation of a government. But the researcher at the International Crisis Group, Laheeb Hegel, believes that the Sadrist movement "cannot take support only from the Sunni and Kurdish parties, but the consensus should start from the Shiite house first." Hassan believes that these two scenarios do not eliminate the possibility of "an escalation towards armed conflict and chaos" in a country where most parties have a military wing.
Despite its decline, the forces loyal to Iran are still able to strengthen their position, through alliances or independent accession to them, in addition to their influence resulting from Tehran's support and weapons, as they can ally with the "State of Law" bloc, led by former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who is also close. of Iran, which won about 35 seats.
After it was the second force in the previous parliament with 48 seats, the Al-Fateh Alliance won only about 15 seats in the October 10 elections, according to preliminary results.
Prime Ministerial Candidates
Are there candidates for prime minister?
There are no clear candidates yet, only some guesses.
The choice of the prime minister depends on the game of alliances between the larger parties in Parliament, and their ability to put pressure.
And it took five months to choose the current Prime Minister, Mustafa Al-Kazemi, after the resignation of his predecessor, Adel Abdul-Mahdi, due to popular pressure.
Although Muqtada al-Sadr has repeatedly reiterated his desire to appoint a prime minister from his current, Hagel does not think that he will do so in the end.
She believes that "it must be a consensus candidate."
In this context, "Mustafa Al-Kazemi still has strong chances to remain in the position," according to Hassan.
Al-Kazemi does not have a party, and he is not an elected representative.
Hegel sees these qualities as "appropriate" for him to remain in office, because that does not put the parties directly at the fore.
She adds, "Perhaps a person who is known in the Iraqi political community may be chosen, but who does not have a clear political affiliation."
Is Iran really the biggest loser?
Despite the retreat of its allies, especially the "Al-Fateh" coalition, experts believe that this will not necessarily affect its influence in the country.
Hegel says that the election results mean that "Iran's influence has declined in Parliament, but I do not think that the balance in Parliament means much for Iran, which has influenced Iraqi politics since 2003, with and without the Al-Fateh coalition."
The Al-Fateh Alliance entered parliament in 2018. The researcher believes that Iranian influence will remain, noting that it "may lower its tone."
Hassan says that Iran's interest in Iraq will remain "related to the issues of ending the American presence in Iraq, ensuring that there is no threat against it from Iraq, the sustainability of the popular mobilization, and that the Iraqi market remains open to Iranian goods."
The Iranians may prefer to revive the “Shiite alliance,” as he said, “they do not see al-Sadr as an enemy, but they are aware of the dangers of his domination of the Shiite scene, and they may prefer to contain it under the umbrella of a Shiite alliance, while recognizing that he will have a stronger voice in determining who will be the prime minister, On issues related to domestic policy.
What about freelancers?
The "Extension" movement, which it says is emanating from the protest movement that took place in 2019, managed to win about nine seats according to preliminary results, including five in Nasiriyah in the south of the country, where the demonstrations centered two years ago.
A number of those who present themselves as independents also won.
Unless the major political blocs swallow these into their alliances, “these forces together may form a bloc numbering about 20 deputies, which can play the role of an opposition capable of tipping the balance in voting on some laws,” as Hegel explains.
To be effective, “these forces must develop a clear strategy for reform, activate parliamentary oversight, and work at the same time to build and expand an organization with a popular base, and coordinate with other protest groups that did not participate in the elections,” Hassan said.
Neither party has a clear majority in Parliament yet. The Sadrist movement is the first winner in the elections with the largest number of seats, according to the preliminary results (70 out of 329 seats).
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