After the announcement of the official preliminary results of the early parliamentary elections that were held in Iraq on the tenth of October, the Independent High Electoral Commission is still considering the appeals submitted by parties and coalitions, in preparation for the announcement of the "final" results within days.

In its latest data, the day before yesterday, Saturday, the commission did not announce any changes in the number of electoral list seats, as it reported that “the audit of the 3,681 stations whose votes were not initially counted has been completed (out of 55 thousand and 41 stations), the results of which were added to the results. The previously announced preliminary", stressing that the results of manual sorting "was identical with the electronic results."

Contrary to expectations, the level of parliamentary representation of traditional parties and others representing armed Shiite factions declined. On the other hand, emerging parties and independent figures rose by about 40 seats, along with an increase in the Sadrist bloc’s seats (73 seats) by 19 seats compared to the 2018 elections (54 seats), as well as the “State” coalition. Law", which increased its share of 12 seats to 37.

While the "National State Forces" coalition led by the head of the "Wisdom Movement" Ammar al-Hakim, allied with the "Victory" alliance headed by former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, recorded the "largest decline" between the other Shiite lists and alliances, with 4 seats compared to "Victory" with 21 Al-Hikma won 19 seats in the 2018 elections.

The number of seats for the "Al-Fateh and Al-Binaa" coalition led by Hadi Al-Amiri, the leader of the Popular Mobilization Forces, decreased to 17 seats, after he came in second place in the 2018 elections with 48 seats.

This alliance was formed in 2018, headed by al-Amiri, and it represents, in most of its components, the political wings of armed Shiite factions. In addition to the Badr Organization, it includes the "Al-Sadiquon" movement and the "Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq" movement headed by Qais Khazali.

This coalition also includes the "Sanad" grouping headed by Representative Ahmed al-Asadi, a leader in the Popular Mobilization and leading the "Jund al-Imam" faction, as well as the Supreme Islamic Council headed by former MP Hammam Hammoudi, the Organization of Islamic Action, and the Jihad and Construction Movement headed by the leader of the Popular Mobilization Hassan al-Sari. The "Sayyid al-Shuhada" Brigades and other armed factions.

#ElectionProtest near Kadhimiya north of Baghdad in objection to #Iraqelection2021 results pic.twitter.com/yUa9Sec0xK

— 🇮🇶🇵🇸Iraq & Middle East Updates 🇵🇸🇮🇶 (@IraqLiveUpdate) October 17, 2021

reject results

As soon as the initial official results were revealed, political forces announced their rejection of them, considering them "fabricated" and "manipulated", with accusations of Mustafa Al-Kazemi's government and "external parties" (meaning the United States) of falsifying the results.

These forces that reject the results are included in the so-called coordination framework, which are: the “Al-Fatah” coalition, the “State of Law” coalition, the “National Contract” coalition, the Virtue Party, the “Wisdom Movement,” the “Victory” coalition and other Shiite forces, in addition to the “Azm” (Sunni) coalition headed by Khamis al-Khanjar, the Islamic Party (Sunni), and the Babylon Brigades (a popular mobilization of Christians).

Many political blocs questioned the integrity of the electoral process and the commission, and threats to resort to arms were issued by political blocs that have military wings against the background of announcing the results and after a speech by the leader of the "Sairoon" coalition Muqtada al-Sadr, who won first place.

On October 12, al-Sadr said that his bloc would work to restore the prestige of the state and confine arms to its hands after the formation of the government, which the Popular Mobilization factions and Shiite armed groups saw as a "prejudice" to what they call the "weapon of resistance."

But after his first speech and the angry reactions that followed, al-Sadr focused - in a statement the day before yesterday, Saturday - on his government's conditions for establishing normal relations with the United States, and outlined its features in working with Parliament and citizens to reform, correct the course, and expose and combat corruption.

Following the announcement of the results, members of the Coordination Framework met on the night of October 13 to discuss the results. In a statement, the meeting considered that insisting on the announced results “threatens to endanger civil peace.”

They also called on their supporters to protest peacefully in rejection of the election results. Indeed, on Sunday, several governorates witnessed protests by supporters of the "coordinating framework" components, which included blocking major roads.

According to the Electoral Commission, it "did not receive any red complaints (about serious violations) during the voting process," and this is a clear denial of the validity of the accusations of political blocs to the Commission of "manipulating" or "rigging" the results.

The United States condemned the criticism leveled by political parties to the Electoral Commission, while the United Nations praised the process, in which thousands of local and foreign observers participated in observing it, without recording "significant violations."

With 73 seats in the 2021 elections, the Sadr bloc topped the results of the second electoral cycle in a row, and is 36 seats ahead of its rival, the “State of Law” list (37 seats) in the context of lists competing for the premiership.

Al-Sadr's position is still oscillating between insisting that the candidate for prime minister be a member of his bloc or an independent (Reuters)

Prime Minister position

According to the political quota in Iraq, the position of the prime minister is the share of the Shiite component, and Shiite lists compete for it, any of which can ally with other lists from Shiites or from other components to form the "most numerous parliamentary bloc" (165 deputies) constitutionally authorized to nominate its candidate for the presidency Ministers.

In the period between waiting for the final results to be announced and holding the first session of the new parliament, the political scene is heading towards forming two major Shiite alliances, both of which seek to include the largest number of deputies, whether within electoral lists or independents, to form the "most numerous bloc" and nominate its candidate for prime minister.

And at the end of last week, the Sadrist bloc formed a quadripartite committee with full powers to negotiate with the political blocs to form a broad coalition, in preparation for the formation of the "most numerous parliamentary bloc" in the first parliamentary session, paving the way for the formation of the new government.

Nassif revealed the formation of a coalition headed by al-Maliki that includes more than 85 deputies (Al-Jazeera)

But the committee has not yet announced any alliances, contented with continuous announcements that it will continue negotiations with political blocs bearing trends consistent with those of the Sadrist bloc, while the leadership in the "State of Law" coalition, Alia Nassif, announced the formation of an alliance headed by former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, comprising more than 85 deputies from the Al-Fateh Alliance, the "State of Law" coalition and other forces, which they did not disclose.

The office of the "State of Law" coalition did not confirm or deny this officially.

With the difficulty of reading what will be witnessed in the arena of political competition, observers believe that the “State of Law” coalition will excel in concluding more comprehensive alliances to include a greater number of deputies than the Sadrist bloc will gather, for reasons including the loss of confidence by the political blocs in al-Sadr’s steadfastness in his positions after experiences in previous electoral cycles that witnessed his decision-making. It surprised his coalition partners, such as announcing his withdrawal from the coalition, the political process, or the House of Representatives.

The position of the Sadrist bloc is still "swinging" between insisting that the candidate for prime minister be a member of his bloc, or that he be an "independent" candidate, according to contradictory statements by the leaders of the Sadrist movement.

It is difficult to judge the stability of alliances as they are, even before the first session of the House of Representatives, as there are likely possibilities for new entities to ally with the Sadrist bloc or the "State of Law" coalition, or to leave them.

Therefore, it is not possible to be certain that the "most numerous parliamentary bloc", which will name its candidate for prime minister, will succeed in obtaining the absolute majority of the deputies, whether the Sadrist bloc candidate or the candidate of the "State of Law" coalition, as preliminary readings indicate the difficulty of choosing the most fortunate candidate. .

In any case, the Sadrist bloc will bet on thwarting the passage of the government of any of the other candidates, and going to the option of consensus on an independent candidate, with data that the current Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi will be the independent consensual candidate supported by the Sadrist bloc, which brought him to the prime ministership in May 7, 2020, after unprecedented popular protests toppled his predecessor, Adel Abdul-Mahdi, in late 2019.