Surprises continue in the legislative elections in Iraq that took place last Sunday, as it seems that the Kurds in general are the most winners from the last elections. Analysis of the preliminary results of the elections announced by the Electoral Commission in Iraq indicates an increase in the total Kurdish parliamentary seats from 58 deputies in the previous elections to 65 deputies.

The Kurdish political equation differs from one party to another. Some of them have strengthened their position in parliament, as happened with the Kurdistan Democratic Party led by Massoud Barzani, while the number of seats for other parties decreased, with the Kurdish Change bloc not obtaining any parliamentary seat in the Iraqi parliament, which includes 329 seats.

Undoubtedly, the results of the Iraqi elections will affect the overall political map of the country and the Kurdistan region, as great differences are still raging between Baghdad and Erbil regarding the disputed areas in accordance with Article 140 of the Constitution, as well as the position of the presidency, the oil and gas law and the federal budget. And the Kurdish share of it.

Kurdish parties map

Preliminary results revealed that the Kurdistan Democratic Party topped the elections results in the Kurdistan region, by obtaining 32 seats after it had only 25 seats in the dissolved parliament.

As for the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, which had 19 seats, it moved to 17 seats, in return for the Kurdish Change bloc losing any parliamentary representation after it had 4 seats in the previous parliamentary session.

The matter did not stop there. The New Generation Movement led by Shaswar Abdul Wahed - which is based in Sulaymaniyah province - won 9 parliamentary seats after it was only 3, in return for the Kurdish Islamic Group losing one of its seats in the previous session, and the increase in the share of the Islamic Union to 4 seats after it was only 2 seats.

Mahmoud considered that the Kurdistan Democratic Party's obtaining of 32 seats is a qualitative leap (Al Jazeera Net)

The influence of Kurdish alliances

Kifah Mahmoud - a political researcher and advisor to the head of the Kurdistan Democratic Party - says that the party - given its 75-year history - has given priority to the Kurds, indicating that the party's obtaining 32 seats is a qualitative leap, which contributed to raising the Kurdish share from 58 in the previous session to 65 seats. According to the preliminary results.

Mahmoud added - in a statement to Al Jazeera Net - that the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan - since the death of its founder, the late Iraqi President Jalal Talabani - faced a leadership problem in the party represented by the conflict between cousins ​​in the Talabani family, which affected the number of voters who voted for them, which applies to the movement Change that did not win any seat in the last elections.

For his part, Kurdish political researcher Muhammad Zangana believes - in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net - that it was expected that the Kurdistan Democratic Party would obtain this number of seats, pointing out that the Change bloc's loss of all its seats is due to the state of organizational weakness that it suffered after the death of its founder, Nashrwan Mustafa, What affected its influence and its readiness for elections, according to him.

Zangana attributed the loss of the Change bloc to all its seats to the state of organizational weakness that it suffered after the death of its founder (Al-Jazeera Net)

What is the possibility of uniting the Kurds?

The Kurdish political blocs have been witnessing major divisions for years, especially after the withdrawal of Kurdish forces from Kirkuk Governorate in October 2017, which deepened the inter-Kurdish differences.

However, despite all the differences, Kifah Mahmoud believes that the higher interests of the Kurdistan region unite the Kurdish blocs together, pointing out that the disputed areas with Baghdad and the region's share of the federal budget and the oil and gas law serve the Kurdish parties together.

Soldier: The strategic issues of the Kurds in dealing with the federal government unite the Kurds (Al Jazeera Net)

Daoud Jundi, a leader in the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, agrees with this, as he says that the Kurds' strategic issues in dealing with the federal government unite them, especially with regard to the economic file and the issue of the disputed areas.

As for the possibility of the Kurdish parties uniting in one political bloc within the Iraqi parliament, he believes that the final results of the elections have not been announced or ratified yet, pointing out that the Kurdish parties have not yet held any negotiations or understandings as to whether the Kurds will enter into one bloc in Parliament or not. .

Jundi attributes this to the fact that one of the Kurdish parties had concluded understandings with Shiite blocs in the pre-election stage, in reference to the understandings of the Kurdistan Democratic Party with the Sadrist movement three months before the elections, and therefore the political conditions are still changing, and it is too early to talk about the alliance, pending What will happen to the events, according to a soldier.

Going to the Islamic trend in the Kurdistan region, Jamal Cougar - a leader in the Kurdistan Islamic Union from Dohuk province - says, "The unification of the Kurdish parties in one parliamentary bloc will not be impossible if these parties reach inter-understandings," referring to overcoming the differences in many previous times.

Cougar considered that the failure of the Kurdish forces to coordinate among themselves in Parliament would lose them many interests (Al-Jazeera Net)

Inter-disputes

And Cougar - who received the highest number of votes in the recent elections in Iraq, where he got 56 thousand votes - continues that the entry of the Kurdish parties individually in Parliament will lose them many interests, especially since the last parliamentary session and the lack of unification of the Kurdish parties led to the Kurds losing important positions in Iraqi state.

Kurdish journalist Saman Noah believes that there are deep differences between the Kurdish parties, noting that the New Generation Movement, which won 9 seats, cannot in any way align with the rest of the Kurdish forces, in addition to the Islamic Union (4 seats).

And he believes - in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net - that the alliance that may occur is between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union, which will depend on the agreement of the two parties on the position of the Presidency of the Republic, ruling out this because of the position.

Presidency of the Republic

Since the first parliamentary elections in Iraq in 2005, the political norm in Iraq has been that the position of prime minister is from the share of Shiite blocs, while the Sunnis have been given the position of the presidency of the parliament, in exchange for the Kurds getting the position of the presidency.

Over the course of 4 parliamentary sessions, the presidency of the republic was held by the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, where the late Jalal Talabani took the position first, then Fouad Masum, and finally the current president, Barham Salih.

With the great change that the Kurdish political map has witnessed, many questions arise as to who will go to the position, and in this case Kifah Mahmoud says, “The presidency of the republic, which has been the Kurds’ share since 2005 - according to political custom - is not considered a monopoly of a particular Kurdish political party. And that the inauguration of Iraqi President Barham Salih in 2018 came under pressure from the Shiites to defy the Kurdistan Democratic Party.

Mahmoud expects - in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net - that the presidency of the republic will be from the share of the largest Kurdish party, and that the Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani will not nominate himself for this position, which may mean that Kurdish figures from the party may be candidates for the position, including the current Foreign Minister Fouad Hussein and the former Minister of Foreign Affairs. Hoshyar Zebari.

As for Jamal Cougar, he assures Al Jazeera Net that the presidency has not yet been decided whether it will remain for the National Union, or will it be from the Democratic Party's share.

Noah considered that an increase in the number of Kurdish seats in parliament by 7 seats would not make a big difference in the formation of the Iraqi government (Al Jazeera Net)

The Kurds and the formation of the government

The formation of the Iraqi government is one of the most thorny issues that politicians have faced in Iraq since 2005, as its formation is always delayed for several months due to the failure of the understandings that preceded it, which may be witnessed by the current parliamentary session, especially since many Shiite parties rejected the preliminary results of the elections and promised them. forged.

In this regard, journalist Saman Noah says that the Kurds have participated in successive Iraqi governments since 2005, and that increasing the number of their seats by 7 does not make a big difference, especially since the first Iraqi actors are the Shiites, then the Sunnis, then the Kurds, pointing out that some Kurdish MPs Who won the last elections from the Arab component.

He believes that the Kurds and Sunnis - before forming any coalition to form a government - should wait for what he described as a "disengagement" between the Shiite blocs, some of which rejected the results of the primary elections, and that they use the time to resolve differences over the position of the presidency before heading for an alliance with the other Iraqi blocs, as he put it. .

Al-Hamdani: The Kurdish parties will not constitute a difficult number in the political equation unless they agree with each other (Al-Jazeera Net)

And agrees with this thesis journalist Riyad al-Hamdani, who believes that the Kurdish parties are governed by consensus among themselves towards Baghdad, and otherwise will not constitute a difficult number in the equations and political deals under the dome of Parliament, as he put it.

Al-Hamdani, in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net, stressed that the Democratic Party's obtaining a large number of seats would encourage it to claim the position of the Presidency of the Republic, which was from the share of its rival, the National Union, and therefore if the latter refused to do so, it would be difficult to unite the two parties in one political bloc to negotiate with the Iraqi parties. the other to form the next government, which will affect the various Kurdish files.