"Bloody" Thursday interacts politically and judicially... What are the expected scenarios in Lebanon?

Beirut

 - The political polarization in Lebanon is intensifying, and observers fear the repercussions, after Thursday's events put civil peace to a serious test.

Hezbollah and the Amal Movement insist on accusing the "Lebanese Forces" party, headed by Samir Geagea, of killing 7 people and wounding dozens of their supporters by sniping from the rooftops of buildings, in Tayouneh, separating the Christian-majority Ain al-Rummaneh and Shiite-majority areas.

The victims fell during a demonstration to demand the dismissal of the judicial investigator in the Beirut port explosion, Judge Tariq Al-Bitar.

On the other hand, the "Forces" party denied the accusations, and considered that the one responsible for these events is the disarmament and the mobilization against Al-Bitar.

 Geagea described the events of Tayouneh as "a miniature Christian version of May 7, 2008" when Hezbollah took control of Beirut.

Amid the exchange of accusations, a new development emerged related to what was revealed by the surveillance cameras in Tayouneh, which showed the killing of a protester by the fire of an army soldier, who made it clear that he was under investigation.

Does the video exonerate the "forces" party?

The writer and political analyst Wassim Bazzi, who is close to Hezbollah, considers that the video does not exonerate the "forces", but rather draws question marks about the army's role and its lack of readiness for the event, despite security assurances before the demonstration.

He told Al Jazeera Net that the video reveals the lack of security discipline, and does not deny the forces' planning of the ambush, to deliver their political messages in time and space.

Bazzi refuses to accuse Hezbollah and Amal supporters of entering "Ain al-Remmaneh" armed, "but they came with their weapons after about 20 minutes, in response to the sniping operations."

In his opinion, the Tayouneh events proved that Geagea was not liberated from his history of the civil war, despite his imprisonment and accusations of massacres and assassinations, including the assassination of former Prime Minister Rashid Karami (in 1987).

The political analyst acknowledges that Hezbollah lost and hoped, with 7 dead, "but Hezbollah's history is full of bloodshed before winning victories."

But researcher and political analyst Fadi al-Ahmar refuses to accuse the "forces" of bloodshed at Tayouneh. "They did not take an official decision to kill peaceful people. Rather, there were those who entered Ain al-Remmaneh armed with weapons and sectarian slogans, and its people defended themselves."

He told Al Jazeera Net that "the forces" have not been an armed organization since 1991, after the Taif Agreement (in 1989) ended the existence of militias, considering that Hezbollah is aware of Ain al-Rummaneh's sectarian sensitivity, "and its supporters attacked it."

Al-Ahmar mentions that Geagea made the decision to confront Hezbollah politically, not with weapons, and accuses the Future Movement headed by Saad Hariri and the Progressive Socialist Party headed by Walid Jumblatt) of failing to confront, leaving Geagea alone against the party and behind it Iran.

The researcher calls for waiting for the army's investigations to determine the responsibilities, and "to note the level of provocation of the soldiers and the people of Ain al-Remmaneh."

Extension of confrontation

The events of Tayouneh fueled the political confrontation, and many feared compromising civil peace, in order to stir up nervousness ahead of the parliamentary elections next spring.

The head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gebran Bassil, entered the line with a violent attack against his Christian opponent, Geagea, warning that "Christians' rights do not happen with blood" in exchange for his call to complete investigations into the port explosion.

Here, writer and political analyst Rosana Bou Moncef considers Bassil very embarrassed, because Geagea has positioned himself as a defender of the rights of Christians, while he is unable to abandon his only ally (Hezbollah) despite the pressures of the electoral campaigns.

The red researcher returns to describing Bassil's attack on Geagea as historical, and is surprised by the "flagrant inaccuracies he mentioned" while civil peace is at stake, noting that the title of Geagea's electoral campaign is "confronting Hezbollah's persistence in defense of the legitimacy of the state."

For his part, the writer Bazzi believes that the importance of Basil’s speech is the comparison between two scenes: the blood of Tayouneh or the “Mar Makhabel” agreement between his current and Hezbollah (in 2006), meaning that Christians, in his opinion, were placed before the choices of blood or dialogue and meeting with Hezbollah, and “the ball is in their court because The game of blood is not in anyone's interest."

harbor investigations

Lebanon is awaiting the meeting of the Supreme Judicial Council next Tuesday after the completion of the judicial appointments, and it is expected that the port’s investigation file will be discussed, and many rule out that it will succeed in pushing Al-Bitar to step down because he has absolute authority over his file, and the cases of dismissal and suspicion fell in the Court of Appeal, after the defendants’ former ministers filed against him (Nuhad Al-Machnouk, Ghazi Zuaiter, Ali Hassan Khalil, and Youssef Fenianos).

And political researcher Boumansef returns to Al Jazeera Net to say that the team of President Michel Aoun bears the responsibility for violating the judiciary "by delaying the judicial formations until they satisfy them."

While Bazzi believes that the logic of matters requires that al-Bitar step down, and that "he must leave the scene after the blood of Tayouneh for the benefit of the supreme state."

The investigative judge is accused of relying on an external impetus that was manifested in the statements of deputies from the Congress and the French and American foreign ministries, avoiding discussing the reasons for the arrival of the “nitrate” ships and their anchorage for 7 years in Block 12.

However, Boumansef was surprised by the ferocity of Hezbollah against Al-Bitar, in return for confirming that he was not involved in the port explosion.

It also calls for a review of the performance of this judge in terms of his insistence on starting at the top of the pyramid to determine responsibilities and aspects of negligence, instead of completing the investigation with all former and current security and administrative officials in the port.

Regional accounts

The political analyst links between Hezbollah's escalation and the election results in Iraq, "because the party and its ally Iran are worried about their defeat there, and they feel that there are conspiracies being hatched against them that must be fought."

With Lebanon commemorating the second anniversary of the October 17, 2019 movement, Boumansef recalled that it coincided with an uprising in Iraq, and Tehran considered at the time that its allies, in Iraq and Lebanon, were targeted on the street.

The "forces" are exploiting the reality, according to the writer, and "utilizing the anger of Christians against Iran's allies, taking advantage of a regional and international atmosphere against Hezbollah and Iran, to become a spearhead in Lebanon."

Boumensef points out that the events in Tayouneh took place on the day the US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland arrived in Beirut.

She says that this commitment, even if it was a coincidence, seemed to be a negative sign for Washington, as Nuland did not enjoy the visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Amir Abdullahian, and she may have to accept Hezbollah's influence in Lebanon.

The government's predicament

The events placed a heavy burden on Najib Mikati's government, which was unable to convene after its birth, and data indicate that Mikati sought to find a legal and judicial solution to the issues of Al-Bitar and the Tayouneh investigations.

And the political researcher al-Ahmar considers that the convening of the government requires Hezbollah to withdraw from the demand to disqualify al-Bitar, "because he will most likely not step down by a political decision outside legal frameworks."

He said that the party imposed blood in exchange for Al-Bitar's survival, which puts the government in a great dilemma, politically, popularly and constitutionally.

As for political analyst Bazzi, he believes that the government suffers from "political paralysis" and that the resumption of its meeting for Hezbollah is linked to two issues: the result of the army's investigation into the Tayouneh events, and the removal of the judicial investigator.

The writer, Boumansef, fears that the suspension of the government's work will conceal goals to disrupt settlements with other files, such as negotiations with the International Monetary Fund and indirect negotiations to demarcate borders with Israel.

She said that the government is facing a constitutional test, and any "exit that implements Hezbollah's demand means hitting the judiciary, blowing up investigations and shaking the confidence of the Arab and Western societies in Lebanon."

The suspension of the government’s work, deaths, and sectarian and political congestion in the street remain reasons that motivate Al-Bitar to abandon the investigation of the crime of the era, according to her.