Is Donald Trump coming back?

We are not even a year after his defeat in the 2020 US presidential election, but Donald Trump already seems to be back on the political agenda.

Did he even leave it?

Yes, all the same, since he has been deprived of his privileged sounding board on social networks.

So Donald Trump tries a comeback by meetings: he was last Saturday in Iowa to support a Republican senator candidate for his re-election in the mid-term election of November 2022. And Iowa is a key state: It is always with this State that the campaign of the presidential primaries begins.

The presence of Donald Trump is therefore no accident.

 asked the question of the possible return of the former president to the historian Nicole Bacharan, author with Dominique Simonnet of

(Périn).

Is Donald Trump coming back?

He's trying to come back, anyway.

But his position is very complicated.

Because, from what I observe, despite everything he slips a little towards the past: we know that he is no longer on Twitter and frankly the media do not talk too much about him.

So he tries to exist through meetings because, when he holds meetings, he finds himself in the atmosphere that pleases him, with people who adore him, who applaud him so much and more.

And then, suddenly, we talk about him in the media.

So he tries, but it seems to me that it is difficult.

Seen from France, since he left the White House, that he no longer has access to the main social networks, we have the impression that he has fallen into limbo.

Did we make a mistake or is it indeed difficult for him to come back to the forefront?

Frankly he is struggling, especially because of campaign finance laws: he can not frankly declare his candidacy today. He does it anyway, but still using a slightly ambiguous formula. And then the Republican Party is also in a very ambiguous position with regard to Donald Trump: there are those who say to themselves that the future is Trump's electorate, but perhaps not Trump himself. .

In the rally which took place in Iowa, we saw the important local figures of the Republican Party being there and supporting him ... But who, at the same time, could take his place if he did not show up or if he did not show up. presented itself in difficult conditions.

So, admittedly, he still has his hands on the Republican Party, but, even among his supporters, many are clearly thinking of the post-Trump era.

They don't want to jeopardize their future by alienating Trump's electorate, but they are ready to take his place.

Is the Republican Party today still the Trumpized Party that we knew at the end of its mandate?

In large part, because of Trump's methods, Trump's big themes are still very much present.

A good number of senators are aligned with this.

Much will be played out in the mid-term legislative elections of November 2022, where Donald Trump firmly intends - he has already started - to impose Republican primaries on elected officials and candidates who are not aligned with his positions, to oppose them Republicans in his image: that is to say, ultra-hards of the ultra right.

How well will it work?

What will the results be?

Will the electorate be faithful to the meeting?

This will be the big test for Trump's political future.

For the Democrats, is Trump's return a blessing in the sense that it can mobilize their base or do they see it as a risk?

Democrats see a real risk in this return, based on conversations I can have with Americans. They are quite worried, because the cleavage also represents for them a difficulty to pass the legislative program of Joe Biden. As long as everyone in the Republican Party is petrified of angering Trump and therefore his electorate, no one wants to take the slightest risk of appearing to support any policy. either of Joe Biden. So already in the immediate future it complicates their lives. And in view of 2024, I do not believe that Donald Trump is seen as a "good candidate" for the Democrats: he is still scary. Because of his grip on the electorate and the fact that he radicalizes the electorate in a way that is deeply dangerous for the country. So no,it is still causing concern for 2024.

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